We grade our 2009-2010 Winter Outlook
As a reminder, we called for below average temperatures and significantly above average snowfall.
Keep reading for a more detailed evaluation of our temperature and snowfall projections. But first, vote in our poll...
Our temperature outlook ended up being a very good one. We predicted that overall temperatures for December - February would run 1 to 2 degrees below average and in fact we were 1.7 degrees below average.
We did OK on our temperature outlook for the individual months. Our prediction of an average December and a 1 degree below average January would have been better had we flipped them, but neither were a bad miss, with December running 1.6 degrees below average and January just 0.4 degrees above. Our prediction of a cold February of 3 degrees below average turned out nicely as we ended up 3.9 degrees below average. Overall I would give us a B+ on winter temperatures with the great overall call slightly mitigated by modest misses in December and January.
It snowed this winter. A lot. I don't think anyone could have foreseen or had the hubris to predict record-breaking snowfall in early November. However, we did OK with our seasonal outlook. As I am sure everyone is abundantly aware, all 3 airports set seasonal snowfall records. Almost all areas received 350%-450% of their average seasonal snowfall. It was an epic winter for snow lovers. After six winters in a row with below average snow, I do think we stuck our necks out with a prediction of 150%-175% of average seasonal snowfall. Of course, much more than that was realized.
But I think it would have been foolhardy to predict much more. I am going to give us a B on snowfall. We correctly called for the first above average snowfall season since 2002-03 and we were right in signaling the elevated chances for a big storm(s).
Overall, I would grade our outlook a B/B+, but lean towards the B+. We were correct in identifying the atmospheric signals that might lead to a cold, snowy winter, and they mostly behaved as predicted, especially the moderate El Nino event. Consequently, our numeric predictions did fairly well, especially our temperature call.
It is way too early to make educated guesses regarding next winter, but I will go ahead and guarantee that we will receive less snow than this past winter. If I am wrong I will be happy to eat crow, or in this case...snow.
Feel free to leave any comments about our winter outlook. Was it useful? What information would you like us to include next year? Are you interested in a summer outlook?
| May 4, 2010; 12:00 PM ET
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Local Climate, Winter Storms
Save & Share: Previous: Unbelievable: Still snow at BWI...
Next: PM Update: Maybe a shower, then days of dry
Posted by: bkriner | May 4, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: ah___ | May 4, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | May 4, 2010 4:15 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: MMCarhelp | May 4, 2010 6:35 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 4, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | May 4, 2010 7:50 PM | Report abuse
Posted by: wecndo | May 4, 2010 11:12 PM | Report abuse
The comments to this entry are closed.