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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 06/22/2010

Forecast: Heat and humidity head higher

By Matt Rogers

* Hottest spring on record for D.C. | Air quality alert: Code orange *
* The heat waves of the 1930s | NatCast: Royally hot *
* Outside now? Radar, temperatures & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5I think after a taste of today's humidity, you'll be longing for yesterday.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Hot. Small chance (20%) of late day t'storms. 90-94. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. Chance of a few more storms (20%). 61-66. | Tomorrow: Even hotter and more humid with small storm chances again. 93-97. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Spring 2010 was the warmest on record and summer has arrived fast and furious. Last year, June only saw two days at or above 90 degrees. Already this June, we've done it ten times, and we should probably do it the rest of this week. This hotter weather increases the evaporation rate too, so our drying trends continue. On the other hand, the higher humidity gives us chances for storms occasionally through this week and weekend. But widespread heavy precipitation seems unlikely.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): The heat is comparable to yesterday with highs in the low-to-mid 90s, but we tack on more humidity. That will make it feel more like 95-100. There is a 20% chance of late afternoon showers or thunderstorms but mainly to the northwest. Winds will be light and mostly from the south. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Partly cloudy again with a chance for overnight thunderstorms (20% again). Muggy conditions with lows in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday) could be even hotter and more humid if you can stand it. Highs should be in the middle to maybe upper 90s with heat index readings above 100F. Some clouds are possible and we have a 20% chance of a late day storm again. Winds should be from the west and southwest. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night:Muggy weather with lows only in the middle to maybe upper 70s. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated and we could see some widely scattered evening thunderstorms (20% chance). Winds should again be from the west and southwest. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday could make a run at the hottest day of the week. We are thinking mid-to-upper 90s, but most locations should be a degree or two higher than Wednesday. And that heat index will again be above 100F in most areas during the hot afternoon hours. We still run the risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms (a 30% chance). Muggy Thursday night with more thunderstorm chances and lows only in the mid-to-upper 70s. Confidence: Medium

Friday is forecast to see a weak cool front push through the area early in the day, which could bring us relief in the form of lower humidity and temperatures. Right now, it looks like upper 80s to low 90s with reduced humidity. We'll want this after Wednesday and Thursday. Skies could be partly to mostly sunny. Confidence: Low-Medium

Despite a possible Friday break, it looks like another hot and humid weekend is brewing. Highs should be in the low-to-mid 90s (Sunday is probably the hotter day). Partly cloudy skies will compete with occasional sunnier periods. And we at least run the chance of afternoon heat relief in the form of widely scattered thunderstorms (30% chance). Lows Saturday and Sunday morning should be in the 70s once again. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Matt Rogers  | June 22, 2010; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

I'd like to buy a ticket in the t-storm lottery today for Centreville VA.
Even if we don't win the rainfall jackpot a secondary prize of heavy storm clouds during the hottest part of the afternoon would be appreciated.
There's already plenty of nasty smog this morning in Manassas. Yuck.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | June 22, 2010 8:47 AM | Report abuse

Already really unpleasant out. Any storms that fire up later may be strong to severe...

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | June 22, 2010 9:00 AM | Report abuse

We've seen 10 90+ days this mo so far, not 9.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 22, 2010 9:27 AM | Report abuse

That's right. When I counted yesterday, I didn't count yesterday. Does that make any sense?

Posted by: MattRogers | June 22, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Looks like the storms are beginning to pop up out west....seems as if the line is growing from north to south...what is triggering this?

Posted by: GMorg11 | June 22, 2010 9:56 AM | Report abuse

Depends on when you wrote the forecast, Matt. ;-)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 22, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

Glad I'm heading to Mexico City tomorrow for a week...highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s!

Posted by: B-rod | June 22, 2010 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Believe it or not, there is actually a warm front where those thunderstorms are lining up Gmorg11. You can see it here: http://www.weather.unisys.com/ That thing will set the stage for our even hotter weather tomorrow and Thursday unfortunately.

Posted by: MattRogers | June 22, 2010 10:54 AM | Report abuse

B-rod, you are so lucky

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | June 22, 2010 11:18 AM | Report abuse

SPC monitoring area for storm watch. I'd still favor areas north myself for severe weather.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 22, 2010 11:46 AM | Report abuse

Thank you for bringing up the Heat Index. Frankly, I have a problem with it. Not the science behind it or it's importance to a meteorologist, but to the average person.

The folks on the tv or radio often say, "the temp is X but it will feel like Y because of the humidity" and then they quote the Heat Index. But I feel that to the average person, high humidity makes the temp much worse as a comfort factor than the Heat Index would indicate.

Yesterday at 8am, it was 73F here with 72% humidity. And the heat index skyrocketed all the way to 74F. +70% humidity is much more oppressive than that.

Last week at one point it hit 94F and you could cut the humidity with a knife. Heat Index=98F. Mathematically based on a scientific equation of verifiable data, perhaps. But when I'm told through the media that that's what it "feels" like, as subjective as this may sound, they are way off base. Most people, I believe, would take 98F with normal humidity over 94F with high humidity any day of the week.

Until a better tool comes along, give me the temperature and humidity readings, and I will make decisions based on those two factors. IMO, the Heat Index just isn't relevant to non-scientists as it underweights the most critical component of what should constitute "weather comfort"... the humidity.

Interested in the CWG's thoughts.

Posted by: Cat11endofdays | June 22, 2010 12:17 PM | Report abuse

This is the WRONG DAY for strong to severe thunderstorms...J. P. McDermott and Western Bop is at the Clarendon Ballroom tonight!!!

It's bad enough to begin with, if downpours between 8 and 9 PM keep me at home, but what could REALLY be bad is if a storm-induced power outage blacks out Clarendon between 9 PM and midnight regardless of whether or not I get there...we could get stranded with NO DANCE ENTERTAINMENT, whether live band or DJ.

Sure wish "much-UNNEEDED severe weather" would quit picking on my dance nights! Tomorrow evening would be better for this sort of weather IMO.

I'm already in a rather foul mood--my water has been turned off without any advance warning from condo maintenance. Sure hope that situation gets restored soon.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 22, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

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