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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 06/16/2010

Forecast: Front, humidity spark storm chances

By Dan Stillman

Less-humid warmth Thurs-Fri; hot weekend

* Floods raise climate questions | Thunderstorms: Fickle & capricious *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
6Clouds keep temps in check, which is nice. But they may yield scattered downpours (though we could use the rain).
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy & humid. Scattered showers & storms (60% chance). Low-to-mid 80s. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers/storms. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: Becoming partly to mostly sunny & less humid. Upper 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The heat and humidity relented a bit yesterday, but clouds and some showers made for an overall dreary feel. Looking forward to a less humid *and* mostly sunny day? You'll have to wait until tomorrow. Clouds stick around today and humidity surges upward with afternoon-into-evening thunderstorms possible ahead of an approaching cold front. Thursday and Friday should be fairly nice (still warm, but not too humid) before some weekend heat and increasing humidity.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Any morning showers and thunderstorms should be isolated as temperatures rise through the 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies cap afternoon highs to the low-to-mid 80s with a decent chance (60%) of scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. With a very moist atmosphere -- humidity spikes to the high range courtesy breezes from the southeast and south -- some storms could produce very heavy downpours and perhaps strong to severe wind gusts. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:
Probability: 60%
Coverage: Scattered

Tonight: Shower and storm chances continue around 40% during the evening and then diminish overnight. We're mild and muggy with partly cloudy skies and lows many spots only down to the low 70s, possibly some upper 60s outside the Beltway. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....


A rain shower develops Monday evening northeast of Fairfax, Va. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Any early-to-mid morning cloudiness and muggy air should give way to partly to mostly sunny skies and decreasing humidity as breezes blow at a fairly steady clip, near 15 mph from the northwest. Highs head for the upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Nice night!... mostly clear with humidity on the low side and lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

High pressure keeps the clouds away Friday. Temperatures rise nicely to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 under mostly sunny skies. But it'll be a pretty dry heat, at least by D.C. area standards, with humidity on the low side. No weather problems expected Friday evening or overnight, with lows ranging from the mid-60s (suburbs) to low 70s (downtown) Confidence: Medium-High

It's looking like a great pool weekend -- i.e., too hot to do much of anything else. Highs should reach the 90s both days, with low 90s likely Saturday and quite possibly mid-90s on Father's Day. Humidity increases again, though probably not to oppressive levels. As of now, I don't see much of a shower or storm threat for Saturday. Sunday could see a few boomers pop up in the afternoon or evening. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | June 16, 2010; 10:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

To everyone at The CWG:

It has been a pleasure interacting in the comments with the writers and fellow readers, having a bit of in depth perspective on the ever so frustrating D.C. area weather, and seeing some of the great weather related pictures; not just from Kevin Ambrose, but from some of the regulars that post weather related pictures as well.

After 2 decades of living in the D.C. area, and following this blog from it's early days at capitalweather.com, for better or worse, the time has come for me to leave the chaos that is D.C. along with it's weather. I will greatly miss having such a wonderful resource that helped me not only to know what the weather will be like, but also to understand why we get the weather we do.

It has been a pleasure discussing many winter "busts", watching Greg call "rain" on the many winter weather fizzles, discussing severe summer weather and watching the ebb and flow of comments that change as often as well, the weather.

In a world where the weather only gets a 5 minute television slot unless the weather is the news maker, the CWG always makes the forecast so much easier to understand without going "Wait, did I just miss the 5 day forecast? What about today's forecast!? I wasn't even paying attention!"
All other forms of weather information are just so clunky.

Again, thank you guys so much for providing this great service.
I'll definitely miss this place.

Posted by: Havoc737 | June 16, 2010 6:49 AM | Report abuse

Havoc,
Best of luck to you where ever you settle, hopefully in an area with an active, varied and opinionated weather community!

Posted by: ftwash | June 16, 2010 7:34 AM | Report abuse

Drove thru heavy showers in western Fairfax & Manassas in the past hour.
Nice rain....not the cloudburst type we'll be on the lookout for this afternoon.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | June 16, 2010 8:45 AM | Report abuse

So looking at all the future casts on weather.com and Accuweather, we seem to be set for a 10 day or more string of 90+ degree days. Granted Weather.com has us pushing 100 on Sunday and no one else does, but are we really looking at that long of a heatwave?

Posted by: hereandnow1 | June 16, 2010 8:49 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Havoc for the kind words.

Hereandnow, yes, it does appear as though an extended period of heat is setting up for the DC area unfortunately. This weekend through next week could feature low-to-mid 90s around the area, but south of DC could see upper 90s or near 100F temps at times. There is a chance for a later next week cold front, but only a chance at this point. A little early for the dog days...

Posted by: MattRogers | June 16, 2010 9:10 AM | Report abuse

@Havoc737

Those are kind words and much appreciated. Good luck to you with whatever comes next.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | June 16, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

I'm seeing some peeks of blue sky here and there in Calverton. Would it be accurate to say that any periods of sunshine would just destabilize the atmosphere and up the chances of severe weather?

Posted by: ana_b | June 16, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

@Havoc

You've been a valuable participant in our community. Thanks for the nice comments. We hope you'll still continue to check-in from afar and even post the occasional comment. - Jason

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | June 16, 2010 11:04 AM | Report abuse

So much for the peeks of sun, it's absolutely chucking it down now.

Posted by: ana_b | June 16, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

I hear thunder in Silver Spring now. Does this mean it might clear out by afternoon? I have plans this evening and don't want to drive in a mess.

Posted by: epjd | June 16, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Havoc, at least you stayed through our record-breaking winter of 2009-2010. Check-in when you can.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | June 16, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Any chance of the current rain weakening convection later today? (Pouring again around Dulles)

Posted by: CM_in_Fairfax | June 16, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

There's not much sun to be had it seems, maybe some breaks later. Instability is still rather low.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 16, 2010 12:37 PM | Report abuse

I'm of the opinion that this "severe threat" is rather over-hyped though the chance for rain is still very good through the day.

Skies around here are just too cloudy to get a real severe outbreak going. They would have to clear considerably by 3 PM or so. Sterling's statements are not providing me any good data on either the MLCAPE or Bulk Richardson Number for Dulles so I can't easily plot what to expect. We should see some downpours, but not a lot of power outages unless the sky clears.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 16, 2010 1:13 PM | Report abuse

I believe with the sun at its strongest angle of the year, it would only take a little while for (breaks in the clouds) to percolate the atmosphere! I wouldn't write-off severe weather/strong thunderstorms ..yet..

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | June 16, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Note to that we have a weak warm front moving through right now.. dewpoints are key to instability as well, and they are on the rise...

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | June 16, 2010 1:29 PM | Report abuse

So, looking at radar right now, there's isn't a whole lot showing up to our west. How quickly can storm systems just pop up from nowhere (on radar, that is)? Softball game tonight in West Potomac Park--rainouts likely or just a possibility?

Posted by: pchart | June 16, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

so, has the all day cloudiness decreased the chances of afternoon/evening t-storms?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | June 16, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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