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Posted at 3:30 PM ET, 06/12/2010

Forecast: Sticky & steamy with chance of storms

By Jason Samenow

* What makes hail clear? | Why is Gulf oil spill hard to predict? *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5The humidity is here. At least there's good soccer to watch indoors.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasingly humid, slight chance of late day storm. 86-90. | Tonight: Very muggy, considerable t'storm chances. 70-75. | Tomorrow: Hot and quite humid. Chance of late day storm. 88-92. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The low humidity we were treated to over four of the last five days is outta here. Now the stickiness ramps up - peaking tomorrow into Monday. The associated deep tropical moisture will fuel any thunderstorms that form, impacting some areas with very heavy downpours - especially in the evening hours. We won't lose the humidity until Tuesday.

Today (Saturday): Considerable cloud cover prevents a true scorcher, but you'll notice the increase in humidity from the last couple of days. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could pop up in the afternoon (20-30% chance), but I think the best chance of storms waits until the evening. Highs reach the upper 80s to around 90. Confidence: Medium-High

3:30 p.m. UPDATE: A line of strong storms has formed southwest of Fauquier Co. which may impact the southern suburbs (including Fauquier, Prince William and then southern Fairfax County) between 4 and 6:00 p.m, possibly extending into the immediate metro area after that. These storms may produce damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Watch these storms on our severe weather tracking station below...

Severe Weather Tracking Station
Warning Text: DC | MD | VA * New: Lightning Map
Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger.
LWX Warnings
Warnings: Severe alerts from National Weather Service. Updates w/o refresh (most browsers). Hint: Alert on map? Click matching label in key for details.

Tonight: A disturbance rippling through the region or just to the north produces an elevated chance of showers and thunderstorms (50-60% chance) mostly between about 5 p.m. and midnight. It won't rain everywhere, but where it does the rain may be quite heavy and even produce some flash flooding. It will be a muggy night, with lows only falling to 70-75. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast into early next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): Humidity reaches into the gross category with dew points in the low 70s. When you combine this humidity with air temperatures heading up to around 90, it will feel more like the mid-90s. Thunderstorm activity remains a possibility - with odds in the 30-40% range...late in the afternoon and into the evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist through about 10 p.m. or so, then we're looking at just another muggy night. Lows fall to 70-75. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

One more sticky & steamy day Monday with highs again approaching 90 coupled with unpleasant humidity levels. An approaching cold front gives us at least a 50/50 shot at thunderstorms during the usual late afternoon and evening hours. Overnight, storms end by mid-evening, followed by partial clearing. Thankfully lows fall below the 70s with upper 60s downtown with some low-to-mid 60s in the suburbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Drier, less humid air arrives from the north on Tuesday. So we should have plenty of sunshine and more pleasant highs in the mid-80s. We will need to watch where Monday's cold front ends up. It may stall close enough to the region to keep some clouds around and even some thunderstorm activity just to our south. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | June 12, 2010; 3:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

"It won't rain everywhere"

but I can guarantee it will rain in western Loudoun. Yest. finished washing 29 windows and glass doors! Now if I get the cars washed I'll seal the deal!

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | June 12, 2010 8:55 AM | Report abuse

I'm pretty sure sunday follows saturday but maybe that's just in the southern hemisphere.

Posted by: blablabla | June 12, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

FYI Looks like a template reuse problem--

"Keep reading for the forecast through the work week..."

"Tomorrow (Thursday):"

Posted by: spgass1 | June 12, 2010 10:00 AM | Report abuse

How much sunshine are we looking at for Sunday?

Posted by: capsnumber1 | June 12, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

Hey, CWG -- a suggestion from somebody concerned about too little rain (granting that it's not a drought --yet)

If:

1) it's not the weekend AND

2) the Nats don't have a home game with Strasburg pitching

would it hurt to root root root for the rain once in a while? We really could use it.

Posted by: kperl | June 12, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

As for rain...there IS a rather important swing dance at Glen Echo tonight...but I'm not sure if I'm going...depends on somebody else's schedule to a good degree.

As indicated previously, there's no drought; we're getting rain threats every third day or so...it just seems to peter out before it reaches us, and the forecasts underperform. Generally a drought here means we're under a persistent high-pressure ridge and the rain threats don't even get into the extended forecasts. As for the "underperformance, it seems to be a micro-climatic factor, either some sort of Appalachian rain-shadow effect, or the infamous "D.C. Split".

One issue...it would be nice if the rain/thunderstorm threats quit happening on the weekends. It's hard to plan a trail hike when the threat of dangerous weather keeps hanging around. Seems this is our THIRD straight weekend with something of this nature--and next weekend is the Columbia Pike Blues Festival.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 12, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

@capsnumber1

Probably a mix of clouds and sun tomorrow, with increasing clouds late in the afternoon.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | June 12, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

The sun is out again, but we just had a very juicy 15 minute downpour. The winds were 15+ (no weather station, just wind chimes), but almost no thunder. I got home and got the laundry in two minutes before it started. Plastic gauge says about 0.25

Posted by: eric654 | June 12, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA A small spatter of huge raindrops, a far away rumble of thunder...and that's it. The sun is back out.
Another chance later this evening...or was that it for the day?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | June 12, 2010 5:37 PM | Report abuse

near Dulles Airport - clouds, distanct rumblings. Entire area is covered by radar for the last 30 min but not a drop of rain.

Posted by: LoudounGeek | June 12, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Just had a mega-rainstorm which dumped almost an inch of rain in less than an hour. Our power went out for a while also.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | June 12, 2010 5:46 PM | Report abuse

two claps of thunder in alexandria, no rain, and life goes on.....

Posted by: pvogel88 | June 12, 2010 6:04 PM | Report abuse

A heavy downpour and a couple of claps of thunder just rolled through Laytonville, MD. With the warnings and statements from the NWS coming and going as this thing worked its way from Leesburg, I was surprised it started falling apart a little west of us. Nice and sunny now.

Posted by: dprats21 | June 12, 2010 6:32 PM | Report abuse

"It won't rain everywhere"

It sure won't. Again not a drop in NW Montgomery yet storms all around us.

Posted by: MKadyman | June 12, 2010 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Well, I was right...after washing all those windows we did get a downpour around 4:40 ish. I had a 19mph gust and 1.18" of rain in Western Loudoun. Didn't even get the cars washed. Boy did the garden and lawn need it. Happy day. Would like those cooler temps though.

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | June 12, 2010 10:42 PM | Report abuse

the storms etc... went right around falls church. nothing here.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | June 12, 2010 11:25 PM | Report abuse

Looks like another classic "D.C. Split"--heavy cells to our north and south, but little or no rain at my location--possibly leading to more "much-needed-rain" forecasting during next week's outings. Currently my big dance next Friday night looks like high pressure and dry weather...will have to see if that holds up. There do seem to be fewer rain chances in the coming week's model guidance.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 12, 2010 11:40 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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