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Posted at 9:45 AM ET, 07/20/2010

Forecast: A few storms, humidity, heat - repeat

By Matt Rogers

Broken record with 90s through the weekend

* Climate expert warns of blogosphere's divisiveness *
* Outside now? Radar, lightning, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* Consec days of 90+: 6; Total 90+: 36 (Apr: 2; May: 3; Jun: 18; Jul: 13) *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

The sun is nice and all, if only it wasn't so darn hot.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly sunny. 30% chance of storms. 90-94. | Tonight: Warm, humid with 30% threat of storms. 72-76. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. 30% chance of storms. 90-94. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Well, it's been exactly one week ago today since we've had a high temperature in Washington below 90 degrees. And as it looks right now, we'll probably see another week go by before we see anything that "cool" again. Most days over the next week should be in the low-to-mid 90s with moderate humidity, along with opportunities for thunderstorms. However, I worry about Friday and Saturday when we could approach the upper 90s to near 100. These are hot times.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): The persistent hot summer pattern continues. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with hot and humid temperatures peaking out in the mid-to-late afternoon in the low-to-mid 90s. Light and variable winds offer little relief. And we run a 30% risk of thunderstorms especially mid-to-late afternoon toward the northern part of the area. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:
Probability: 30%
Coverage: Scattered
Most likely timing: 4 p.m. to midnight (on-and-off)

Tonight: Scattered evening thunderstorms are possible, with a 30% chance of you seeing one at your location. Partly cloudy skies with light winds keep that humidity locked in place, so look for uncomfortably warm lows in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): We can't shake this sultry weather story. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies, moderate humidity, and highs in the low-to-mid 90s. We should still see a 30% risk of mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Warm and humid weather prevails with a 30% chance of mainly evening storms. And those lows should be in the low-to-mid 70s again, with most areas a degree or two warmer than Tuesday night. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

20100719_9094.jpg
A thunderstorm seen from Cleveland Park yesterday evening. By CWG photographer Ian Livingston.

Thursday is forecast to be a "drier" day with reduced thunderstorm chances. But you know, it is summer and we've been seeing storms essentially at any time of the day and night, so let's keep the risk of an isolated storm. Mostly sunny skies are expected, along with hot highs in the mid-90s and moderate humidity. Lows Thursday night should be in the mid-to-upper 70s under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Low-Medium

Friday could very well be our hottest day of this work week as the latest trends are heating up the air mass to a point where upper 90s, moderate humidity, and mostly sunny skies are likely. We're back to a 30% risk of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend looks like a hot one, especially on Saturday before a cold front attempts to finally approach the area. Stronger winds from the west and southwest could enhance the heat such that highs threaten 100, and with higher humidity too. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with a 40% chance of late-day or evening storms (they could be severe). Sunday has a shot at being sunny with lower humidity, but still with mild morning lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the low 90s. However, if the cold front stalls, Sunday could be a soupy, hotter day with more storm chances. Confidence: Low

By Matt Rogers  | July 20, 2010; 9:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

How long can this pattern continue?? I know nothing about meteorology, but it would seem that this would have to break just based on history, odds, whatever. So many people I talk to, that have lived in this area for quite a long time, can't remember such LONG stretches of heat and humidity. Does this have any bearing on whether or not we will have a traditional Fall, with leave changes and all that good stuff???

Posted by: CJWill1 | July 20, 2010 7:33 AM | Report abuse

Hi CJWill, we had a long, persistently hot summer in 2005 and back in 2002 as well, but this one certainly got an early start. Right now, we are watching a significant cooling of waters in the Tropical Pacific known as La Niña. When that happens, we tend to get stubborn-hot late summers and very warm autumn periods. So perhaps our autumn will be on a slower pace this season.

Posted by: MattRogers | July 20, 2010 7:56 AM | Report abuse

Have we acclimated? I didn't sweat on the way to work this morning, with the dewpoint below 70F. Quite a treat! Anyone else find it bizarrely comfortable?? :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | July 20, 2010 10:00 AM | Report abuse

Yes, Camden. Dew point is 69F right now and strangely, I did feel more comfortable this morning when walking around Bethesda this morning. We must take what we can get!

Posted by: MattRogers | July 20, 2010 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Fair amount of clouds around again now. Didn't stop us from 90+ yesterday though, see if they thin as the day progresses. If/when we top 90 we'll be at the yearly norm for such days with like 2.5 mo of possible 90+ chances to come. We hit the summer (June-Aug) norm (31) yesterday.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | July 20, 2010 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Ian, what is the record number of 90+ days? I heard that was maybe in 1980. Can you confirm? What number are we aiming for now? :)

Posted by: MattRogers | July 20, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

I felt comfortable this morning too, leaving the house at 7:30. It was quite lovely, in contrast to yesterday, when the air was too thick to breathe properly.

Posted by: maralenenok | July 20, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

Matt, 1980 had 67 for the year. It's 8 above the next highest which has 5 occurrences, most recent in 1991 and earliest in 1872. Once you get to 50 you're in pretty rare territory. Looks like we've got ~45 or so locked in through the end of this mo. I'd think we're looking at at 60ish or so without a lot of difficulty? Could be a race to the finish with 1980 if things work out... you're the long ranger I'd look to on those questions. ;) I just stick with persistence for now, even with this more sultry air mass we've had little trouble with the heat.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | July 20, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Ian! Yes, with the developing La Niña situation (NOAA is reporting it bordering on moderate intensity now) it would appear that persistence would be the smart route for bal-of-summer. So it could make things interesting for the 1980 record-holder.

Posted by: MattRogers | July 20, 2010 10:47 AM | Report abuse

I know this isn't an entomology blog, but I need to comment on the mosquitoes, or lack thereof. It seems that I am usually a magnet for mosquitoes but this year, I have only gotten a few bites. I have avoided dusk as much as possible, but I am out quite a bit with the kids at the pool and on walks. Has it been too hot this summer, even for the buggers?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | July 20, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Great question and I wonder if our relatively drier first half of summer had something to do with that. Now that we have recently turned wetter, we might see more bites in the weeks ahead unfortunately.

Posted by: MattRogers | July 20, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Authorofpoetry, my magnetism for mosquitos continues unabated, unfortunately. I am in S. Arlington.

Kinda liking this pattern we're in. My lawn appears to be making a comeback. Yesterday, we go a nice downpour in the afternoon. I don't have to water the lawn at least until tomorrow. And, if we get some nice showers this afternoon, I'll be set for a while.

Posted by: jojo2008 | July 20, 2010 11:50 AM | Report abuse

Precipitation threat has declined somewhat for tonight...now severe weather threat seems more likely tomorrow afternoon...I have errands but no dance tomorrow; don't go to the Wed. night dances at Nick's...transit issues.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 20, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Clouds still hanging pretty tough. Given we were 87 last hour probably hard to miss 90 at this rate but we'll see.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | July 20, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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