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Posted at 7:15 AM ET, 07/13/2010

Forecast: Storms today with more heat later

By Matt Rogers

Some activity today could be strong or severe

* NASA eyeballs glacial melt in Greenland *
* Outside now? Radar, lightning, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* Yesterday's rain totals: DCA, 0.4"; IAD, 0.4"; BWI, 0.98" *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


We need the rain, but thunderstorms are rarely ever convenient!
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Cloudy with p.m. storms. 86-89. | Tonight: Evening storms, cloudy, and humid. 70-74. | Tomorrow: More sun mixed with clouds. Chance of p.m. storms. 89-93. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


The showers and storms yesterday afternoon were quite hit-or-miss. Before late-evening storms produced a brief deluge across the immediate area, National Airport had only managed .1" and Dulles fared even worse with just a wee .06" of rain. For our rain-starved metropolitan area, we'll have another chance to fill in those gaps as the exact same air mass (warm, humid, and unstable) as yesterday dominates our weather. By later this week, the storm chances will die down, but unfortunately the heat will build stronger.

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): Like yesterday, we likely struggle to see sustained sunshine as clouds traverse the area. Showers and storms become more widespread by the afternoon and into the evening. We run a 70% likelihood of seeing precipitation, but totals could again run a broad range from just a trace to upwards of an inch in the heavier storms. There is a small risk some storms will produce damaging winds. I don't expect much deviation from Monday's highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Light winds should pump in more humidity from the south. Confidence: Medium

Probability: 70%
Coverage: Fairly widespread
Most likely timing: 3 p.m. to midnight (on-and-off)

Tonight: Showers and storms could hang around into the evening hours (40% chance). Mostly cloudy skies and very humid conditions should keep lows in the low-to-mid 70s. Look for light winds again. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Wednesday's weather should still be on the humid side, but we have a better opportunity for more periods of sunshine that are expected to boost high temperatures back into the lower 90s in many areas. Thunderstorms in the afternoon should be less widespread (40% chance). Light winds from the north and west are expected. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy and muggy with light breezes. Look for lows to only drop into the low-to-mid 70s in the city, but the outer suburbs could see lows dip back into the more comfortable upper 60s instead. Confidence: Medium


Thursday and Friday are forecast to see more sun and more intense heat. Low-to-mid 90s are expected during the afternoon hours with continued moderate levels of humidity that will make it feel like 100F. We still run an afternoon and evening risk of thunderstorms, but the probability sinks down to about 20%, so they will be quite the hit-and-miss variety. Lows should range through the 70s. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend is currently not poised to be a washout nor a record hot weather situation. But we cannot completely avoid hot weather and scattered precipitation. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with the best chance of storms on Saturday (60%) with still a lingering risk on Sunday (40%). Those highs should still be in the low-to-mid 90s with moderate humidity levels, especially on Saturday. Lows are in the 70s once again. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Matt Rogers  | July 13, 2010; 7:15 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Ball lightning: real or fantasy?


We really got hit in Baltimore yesterday afternoon. I can't remember the last time I saw such heavy rain. Another band came through late at night with another deluge.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | July 13, 2010 8:07 AM | Report abuse

Yes, these are very tropical rains. This is a complete atmospheric reversal from last week's very hot and super-dry air mass!

Posted by: MattRogers | July 13, 2010 8:47 AM | Report abuse

1" in about 20 minutes in Columbia during the day and another three quarters last night.

Posted by: MaltyCharacter | July 13, 2010 9:26 AM | Report abuse

Looks to me like a good portion of the 95 corridor got .5-1"+ yesterday. West and northwest burbs got the "shaft", with a few others also getting missed out. But overall the airports seem underdone for much of the area.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | July 13, 2010 10:15 AM | Report abuse

yesterday's overnight storms were great - i've got no problem at all with that kind of thing. it's the 3:00 pm to 8:00 pm storms that drive me crazy. these storms are very inconvenient for me personally and for all summer sports teams and afternoon/evening barbequers. saturday morning storms are inconvenient for me too - so cut it out!

i've requested NUMEROUS TIMES that these storms be delayed until after dark, and have been accommodated pretty well this summer - until this past weekend and yesterday... so, again, let me be clear: wait 'til after dark, say after 9:30 would be nice.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | July 13, 2010 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Summer rant: I hate summer. Between the mosquitos that seem to prefer me as a meal over my wife, to the humidity that makes me sweat simply by getting the paper on the driveway each morning, to the thunderstorms that wake my 5-year old with each rumble, I have reached the end of my meteorological rope. End of rant.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | July 13, 2010 10:39 AM | Report abuse

authorofpoetry, I am pretty much agreeing with you but overall find it awesome that you even HAVE a meteorological rope! I am at the end of mine too. I need a new one after this past extreme winter now a challenging hot summer...

walter-in-fallschurch, I apologize on behalf of the storms haha. But at least for me in downtown DC, I was happy with the 945pm timing. I agree it is pretty nice to have them after dark :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | July 13, 2010 10:48 AM | Report abuse

Camden - Ha! Thanks for the laugh. I just find that this is a great forum to rant and vent about the weather-related things I don't like. I even tried to change my profile name to 'Ihatesummer.' You won't hear me complaining in a couple of months, when the winds start coming from the North, the leaves turn rusty, and the apple cider starts flowing. Ahhh...

Posted by: authorofpoetry | July 13, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

I received .73" from last nite's storm here in the Takoma Park area. Storm came thru around have about 1.1" for the month, which means since Saturday. Yard looked very green this morning.

Posted by: weatherdude | July 13, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Although I don't like summer heat and humidity, I do enjoy having distinct seasons for a change. After the big snows I actually was looking forward to summer, and now I can look to the relief of fall and winter.

Posted by: weatherwatcher1 | July 13, 2010 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Tuesday night is normally my most important dance night of the week... so why do I have to keep contending with these dance-night "strong to severe" threats???


[Although it hasn't materialized every time, this is about the tenth to fifteenth time so far this year that I've had some sort of bad-weather threat on dance night. And this is supposed to be a "dry" year!]

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 13, 2010 12:07 PM | Report abuse

Walter, some people, especially those who have to get up early for work, like to sleep at night rather than be kept up past midnight by lightning and thunder.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | July 13, 2010 12:26 PM | Report abuse


Yep... yet another case where the airports don't tell the whole story. And actually, close-in nw suburbs did good according to radar-estimated precip. Even a little maxima along a line from Rockville southwest through Tysons. But areas farther west did indeed get somewhat shafted -- like western MoCo and all of Loudoun (including Dulles) -- as did National Airport and SE D.C. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | July 13, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Bombo.....corrct me if I'm wrong, but I assume that you and your weekly dance partners have the option of moving inside when it rains. Of course, if a thunderstorm knocks out the power, then even indoors won't work.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | July 13, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Walter: Rainhater? ;)

Posted by: mhardy1 | July 13, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

MMCarhelp, re midnight thunder:
well...sorry about that... how 'bout if we keep thunder storms btwn 9:30 and, say 11? we can have just plain rain after 11:00. or, maybe we could have thunderstorms as long as they're pretty quiet after 11?

oh, no. i'm not a rain hater at all. not even a thunderstorm hater. it's just that i'd like to maintain certain parameters: no inconveniencing MY plans - it's all about me and mine, you know....

to that end, i'd generally like to keep the 3:00 pm to 8:00 pm window free of outdoor-plan-canceling t-storms... (there are certain days where i don't have outdoor afternoon/evening plans and would enjoy a daytime t-storm. but i just i didn't want to confuse the CWG with my complicated plans.) i wouldn't really mind t-storms earlier in the afternoon (except on weekends), or after dark as i mentioned above. also, i've got no problem with late-night t-storms, though apparently they keep some people awake. i actually find it kind of relaxing to hear rain and/or t-storms at night, but anyway...

i've mentioned before how i like all kinds of weather and how i LOVE the fact that we get all kinds of weather here. so, i like it hot in the summer, with its associated occasional well-timed t-storms, and cold in the winter with lots of snow.

snow generally being so rare 'round here, i'm much less picky about when it happens, but even here i have timing preferences - which maybe i'll elaborate on this winter... ;-)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | July 13, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

Did slightly better than IAD during the 230-4pm timeframe yesterday - just shy of .40. Got another tenth or so later in the evening for about a half inch total. Im about 12 miles SW of IAD in SE LoCo. And yes, I'll take it. Isnt this part of the remnants of TD2?

Posted by: DullesARC | July 13, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

NOAA just issued Flash Flood Watch for our area tonight. How much rain do you think we will really get? Estimates seem to be all over the map.

Posted by: wzitlau | July 13, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

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