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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 07/20/2010

Tropics: Caribbean not so quiet anymore

By Greg Postel

* Steamy, and stormy? Full Forecast | Hurricane Tracking Center *

Just one week ago, only a few tropical cumulus clouds dotted the sky over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. However, as discussed in my previous blog, there were signs that the local conditions were about to change.

Given recent trends in satellite imagery over the region that now show widespread thunderstorm activity, combined with various other local atmospheric trends that now favor development (an increase in relative humidity and a reduction in wind shear), it's not surprising that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now suggests that this region may soon be ready for tropical cyclone formation.

Keep reading for more on possible development in the Caribbean...

tropical-wave-072010.jpg
Thunderstorms flare up in a tropical wave near Puerto Rico. Image courtesy NOAA.

In fact, NHC is now investigating one suspicious-looking disturbance near Puerto Rico. Although conditions are not currently ideal for the system to mature, they may change in the next few days. Hurricane track models are monitoring this feature and predict it will move generally westward or northwestward during the next 120 hours.

I will be watching this system, as well as the weather over the nearby tropics as a whole, a bit more closely this week.

By Greg Postel  | July 20, 2010; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Tropical Weather  
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Comments

I was pleasantly surprised to see this posting on CWG just now – I’ve been watching this feature all morning on satellite imagery (slow day at my internship job) and the area of convection seems to be getting better organized. Have a look at the radar loop coming out of Puerto Rico; you can see a defined circulation center just to the north and east of the main island. We may soon be looking at Bonnie, or at least a depression.

Posted by: Sterlingva | July 20, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

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