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Posted at 10:50 AM ET, 08/ 6/2010

AccuWeather's Bastardi predicts quieter D.C. winter

By Dan Stillman

* Brief relief: CWG's Full Forecast | What weather tweets do you want? *

AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi is out with his initial forecast for the upcoming winter, and the news is good for people in the D.C. area hoping for an end to the extreme and record-breaking conditions of this past winter and the ongoing summer -- he's predicting "near-normal snowfall." From the AccuWeather.com news story:

In general, the East Coast will be granted a reprieve from the tremendous snowfall that caused 2009-2010's winter to be dubbed "snowmaggedon."
This does not mean a free pass for the Northeast. Bastardi predicts late November and December could get winter off to a fast start in the East, with a major thaw coming for much of the country in January.

What about temperatures?

Temperature-wise, Bastardi is forecasting slightly higher-than-normal temperatures (0.5 to 1 degree warmer) for Boston, Washington, D.C., and New York City.

August may seem early for a winter forecast, though it's not quite as early as the one AccuWeather.com and Bastardi issued in July 2009 ahead of this past winter, which by the way was on the right track in predicting this past winter would be the "snowiest in over 5 years" for the D.C. area.

As more winter forecasts are issued in the coming weeks and months, we'll keep track of them here on the blog. As for CWG's own winter forecast? Look for it this fall (i.e., let's get through summer first, ok?)

By Dan Stillman  | August 6, 2010; 10:50 AM ET
Categories:  Local Climate  
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Comments

This is the best news I've heard in a long time. Much less snow, please.

Posted by: oldtimehockey | August 6, 2010 11:36 AM | Report abuse

A reprieve: what does that mean? Anything less, I presume. Given the extraordinary winter we've just experienced, the forecast of a "reprieve" is a gutless, virtual sure bet. About as meaningful as the gross generalities in fortune cookies

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | August 6, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

Well, climatology can virtually (statistically) guarantee the atmosphere cannot produce two winters in a row of the same conditions as last winter

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | August 6, 2010 12:19 PM | Report abuse

ps, I agree with oldtimehockey ;-) I was a snow lover until last winter, too!!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | August 6, 2010 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Hey, I love cold weather but even I think last winter was ridiculous!!! I did more shoveling than a grave digger in February. Still though, I wouldn't mind a couple of smaller storms.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | August 6, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

I'm with Steve. This is a no brainer, lol. IF somehow we can hold a -NAO we might be OK, but I see people predicting the opposite. I'd lean normal or slightly above though Nina winters can be pretty bad (snowless).

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 6, 2010 2:10 PM | Report abuse

After all the brutal heat and power-blasting storms so far this summer, I'm ready for a repeat of "Snowmageddon"!

However, my own tracking comes closer to Mr. Bastardi's projections with 15 inches or so at DCA for the season. I've started seeing woolly caterpillars already on the W&OD Trail...they are bearing bad news...all brown or orange, hinting at a rather mild winter. Usually the woolly worms don't show up till October or early November so they are getting a very early start this year.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 6, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

less snow than last year?!?! that's the prediction? boy...didn't see that one coming.

last winter was the best ever ('cept for the snowless january part - that was kind of a waste of cold weather...)!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 6, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Last winter was the best ever.....probably never to be matched in my lifetime.
I think my shoveling shoulder is just about fully recovered.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | August 6, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

Agree with most that the "prediction" falls under the 'duh' category. But can you imagine if we have a winter that is snowier?

By the way, the "snowiest in over 5 years" for the D.C. area' was no great forecast either - we had substantially below average snow totals the previous 5 years if i recall correctly. All we had to do was get near 'average' and he would have been correct. Now if he would have added a extra digit onto the '5', THEN he would have been on to something...

Posted by: amaranthpa | August 6, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

We've had the snowiest winter, now the question is can we get the most 90 degree days in a year? 67 in 1980 will be tough to beat, but we have a chance. I think 2nd or 3rd most in a year has to be a shoe in at this point. This winter will be tame compared to this past one. My prediction? Only 8 inches at DCA this winter--for those who want a better answer than "a reprieve."

Posted by: cloudking1 | August 6, 2010 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Yes, it's safe to say that after a year of record snowfall, next year's totals will be lower.

Posted by: fleeciewool | August 8, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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