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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/30/2010

Forecast: Five days of heat, humidity bearable

By Jason Samenow

* Outside now? Radar, webcam, clouds & more: Weather Wall *
* No. of 90+ days: 55, Record 67 (1980) | Code orange air quality alert *
* Where are Danielle and Earl? Hurricane Tracking Center *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Mid-90s aren't fun but shouldn't scare anyone in this historically hot summer.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny and hot. 94-98. | Tonight: Mostly clear. 63-72. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and hot. 94-98. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Last week, I gleefully declared in Monday morning's forecast "no 90-degree days are in our immediate future." How times have changed. This week chances are strong we'll reach 90+ through Friday as hot high pressure sits over top of us. The stagnant air isn't going to help air quality and we'll probably contend with at least code orange conditions daily. The saving grace of this heat wave is that the humidity holds in the moderate range. Will Hurricane Earl impact our weather later this week? It likely remains off the coast - but we'll be watching it...

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): It's pleasant enough to start the day, but as sunshine goes to work, we steadily start to bake. Afternoon highs reach the mid-90s with little breeze. Humidity levels are moderate with dew points near 60. Confidence: High

Tonight: A redeeming feature of this heat wave is that evenings remain relatively pleasant due to the relatively dry air -- especially in the suburbs. Under clear skies, lows drop to the low 70s downtown with low-to-mid 60s in the cooler suburbs. Confidence: High

Do you agree with the 'Digit'? Vote in the Digit box above. And keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): This is basically a repeat of Monday: skies are primarily cloudless and it's hot. Afternoon highs extend into the mid-90s with a few upper 90s possible. Breezes are close to non-existent. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: The evening is a little sweaty -- with temps taking until around 10 p.m. to drop below 80 downtown. By early morning, it's down to about 71 or 72 downtown, with 60s in the suburbs under mainly clear skies. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday and Thursday, remarkably, are nearly carbon copies of Monday and Tuesday. Both days clouds are scarce and we roast. Highs reach the mid-to-upper 90s with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70. Humidity levels remain in the moderate range with dew points around 60. The only wild card in this forecast is the period spanning late Thursday into early Friday when Hurricane Earl may make its nearest approach to the mid-Atlantic coast. At the moment, the most our region stands to see is some high clouds from its outer bands -- but there is still time for this to change so stay tuned. Confidence: Medium

A cold front pushes through the region late Friday. But prior to its arrival, it's likely another hot day with highs into the mid-90s. There may be a few more clouds around due to the cold front's proximity but probably not much in the way of rain -- as Hurricane Earl -- projected to be situated off the coast of New England -- robs the front of much of its moisture. Friday night it clears out, with lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

The heat wave most likely ends by the weekend as cooler air settles in from the north. Under partly sunny skies, highs both days are likely in the low-to-mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s to the low 60s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | August 30, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

What's the second highest number of 90 degree (or more) days? Is it 59? If so, that "record" could be toast on Friday.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | August 30, 2010 6:45 AM | Report abuse

Glad I didn't plan a vacation at the Outer Banks this week. Looks like Earl is planning one there too ....

Posted by: weathergrrl | August 30, 2010 7:40 AM | Report abuse

It would be nice if later in the week the heat and humidity were swept out with some rain, but I guess we might not see that for a while.

Posted by: rocotten | August 30, 2010 7:53 AM | Report abuse

Guys thanks for including a humidity forecast too, and not just going for the cheap thrills in forecasting another string of 90+ days. I don't care what anyone says - this is classic late August weather in DC and I love it. Crisp shadows, no more sweating, and a chance to catch up on the tan I lost when I spent all of July indoors.

Posted by: fleeciewool | August 30, 2010 8:20 AM | Report abuse

Seems ironic that last week we were protected from Danielle by a strong upper low (see
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/images/winds082710.gif) and this week we are protected by an upper level high http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_300.html which is not super strong, but strong enough I guess.

Posted by: eric654 | August 30, 2010 8:29 AM | Report abuse

Hi gang - can you comment on the possibility of Hurricane Earl affecting travel to the DC area during Labor Day Weekend? I'm getting married on Sunday and the forecast currently looks great... but I'm so worried about my friends and family being delayed by potential storms. Thanks!

Posted by: 82hughes | August 30, 2010 9:21 AM | Report abuse

Looks like we will have 60 days of 90+ after Friday. I wonder if we can squeeze out 8 more in September to get the record.

Posted by: ajmupitt | August 30, 2010 10:09 AM | Report abuse

@82hughes

As we discuss above, we think the most likely scenario is that the storm stays out to sea. Though we anticipate high waves at the beaches, we do not think significant inland impacts are likely. However, the storm is still far away--and there is still time for this to change. Hurricane track forecasting skill five days away is just not good enough to entirely rule out a landfall.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 30, 2010 10:51 AM | Report abuse

For Earl, the usual weather models are showing it close to Nantucket on Friday, but the tropical weather models (specifically for hurricanes) are showing it staying well out to sea. See http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI The NC forecasters think it will brush the Outer Banks on Thursday http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI

Posted by: eric654 | August 30, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

Any concern that every single update from NOAA's NHC seems to place Earl further west? Including the most recent one.

I know that the most probable outcome is near-miss on NC and it basically heading away from land afterwards, but it seems like it only needs a slight jog to the west to give us high winds and the inevitable tree-related power outages.

Posted by: PaLun | August 30, 2010 11:26 AM | Report abuse

@PaLun

We see this as a close call-- but staying offshore. But we'd be lying if we didn't say we were a little nervous about the trend west...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 30, 2010 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Jason - Can you pass along a message to mother nature that meteorological begins in exactly two days. I don't know what she is thinking with these 90 degree temperatures forecast all week. She needs to get in line.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | August 30, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

NCEP is watching Earl carefully & the opinion is that the key to Earl's track will be the strength of the upper air trough that will move into the midwest & how far westward towards New England the ridge of high pressure over the NW Atlantic will build. The more the ridge builds to the west & the sharper the midwest trough, the more Earl will steer west before it can start to turn north. There was mention that Earl is already further west than the models had predicted for it a few days ago.

Posted by: badgerwx | August 30, 2010 11:59 AM | Report abuse

My "daily digit" is around a "6" or "7", good dance weather, but with increased MNR whining...unless "Earl" makes a sharp westward shift. I see that rocotten is already looking for some rain later in the week. My big dance dates are tomorrow evening [Clarendon Ballroom], Friday evening [Dulles Hilton] and Sunday afternoon/evening [Arlington/Fairfax Elks Lodge]. There's probably also a swing dance at the Spanish Ballroom on Saturday night.

The lower humidity is quite welcome...temperatures are NOT staying in the eighties at 4:00/5:00 AM!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 30, 2010 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Virgina Beach, NYC, Boston, and most of NJ are in the western area of Earl's cone as of 11:13 this morning. Down East Maine and Cape Cod are closer to the center of the cone.

Looks like some MNR will come our way, though, if Earl gets that close.

Posted by: kperl | August 30, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

I've only had a little over 5" rain this summer, so I am definetly in the MNR crowd. My yard looks terrible & I'm hoping my well doesn't go dry. Unless we get some rain from a tropical system, I'm afraid this could b an extremely dry fall.

Posted by: VaTechBob | August 30, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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