Forecast: Nicer today; rain tomorrow

Weekend blend of humidity, heat & scattered t'storms

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updated at 11:10 a.m.

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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny & more comfortable. 88-93. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Late night showers. 70-75. | Tomorrow: Showers and t'storms likely. Mid-to-upper 70s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Our region is caught between two weather zones -- a cool upper level trough pattern in the Midwest and a hot and humid ridge pattern in the Atlantic and Southeast. Being stuck on the fence like this can usually make our forecasting job more difficult as a slight shift in these patterns can change our weather dramatically. And things are certainly shifting. After a hot, humid day yesterday, we're looking at a hot and dry day today (with much less humidity). But that won't last as a disturbance pulls a front back toward us tomorrow with higher humidity, lower temperatures and heavy rain potential.

Today (Tuesday): The stationary front to our south may still send enough cloud cover up into this area to promote partly cloudy skies. But surface winds will be mostly from the north and that means dry dew points and more comfortable conditions. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will not feel nearly as bad as yesterday afternoon's "ugh". To our south there may be sufficient moisture/humidity, to scrape up some stray showers and storms in the far southern suburbs (20% chance). Confidence: Medium

Tonight: The winds should shift to come from an easterly direction, which will work to increase our cloud cover and introduce showers very late at night (40% chance). Lows should be in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Depending on your perspective, this could qualify as the worst day of the week as a disturbance riding along a stationary front feeds lots of showers and storms through the area. The advance of precipitation should be from south to north through the course of the day. Expect mostly cloudy skies all along and highs only in the mid-to-upper 70s. Rain could be heavy at times and I wonder if our local National Weather Service office will issue a flash flood watch given all the recent rains. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow Night: More showers and storms (70% likelihood) are expected and they could be heavy at times. Lows should drop into the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should stay on the cloudy side. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday has a chance to be a decent day if the front slips far enough south. Highs are still expected to be in the mid-80s with lower dew points and partly sunny skies. But we'll have to watch that front position closely. Right now, there is a 40% chance for afternoon showers and storms mainly to the south side of the area. Thursday night should be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 downtown. Confidence: Low-Medium

Friday is still poised to be a drier day with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs heading back up to the upper 80s and low 90s. We have to keep low ranges on our confidence though as the tricky front could linger to our south. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend looks shaky unfortunately, as the guidance varies between late Saturday and early Sunday for the next cold front to sweep through the area. So, perhaps we can say that the first half of Saturday and the second half of Sunday have the best chances right now to be on the drier side. Thunderstorm risks increase Saturday afternoon and abate toward midday Sunday. Both days will run a 40% chance of storms at this point until we can resolve the timing debate. Highs should range from the mid-to-upper 80s. Lows are favored to range from the 60s to around 70. Confidence: Low