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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 08/ 1/2010

Forecast: Daily, but not definite storm chances

By Brian Jackson

* Hottest July on record | CWG, with feeling:Weather with attitude *
* Outside now? Radar & more: Weather Wall | NatCast *

Forecast updated at 10:30 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


More gray in the sky, but a chance we stay mostly dry.
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Partly sunny, 40% chance of p.m. showers or t'showers. 81-85. | Tonight: Cloudy, chance of showers. 66-70. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, storms possible. 84-88. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


We begin a slightly unsettled period today as a disturbance slides by. Behind it, no high pressure moves in, so we'll continue to see at least small chances for rain daily through midweek. After being held in check today to the tune of the lower 80s, our daily highs will ramp back up slowly. By Wednesday, we'll have highs returning to the mid-90s along with uncomfortable humidity levels.

Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Shower and thunderstorm chances begin early this morning. However, the mid-morning through early afternoon hours look dry with partial sunshine. Shower chance re-emerge later this afternoon but coverage will be scattered with about a 40% chance that you get measurable rain. Considerable cloud cover for portions of the day will hold our high temperatures down in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds will be from the south, with a slight easterly component, at less than 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Shower chances will stick with us into the overnight hours (40%). Mostly cloudy skies will be dominant with lows in the upper 60s. Winds will blow lightly from the south and some fog is briefly possible in some areas. Confidence: Medium

Not liking today's weather? Vote your call for today's Daily Digit (see Daily Digit box above). And keep reading for the forecast into next week...

Tomorrow (Monday): With no dominating high pressure moving in, there will be nothing to put the cap on afternoon thunderstorms developing (30%). We'll again see more clouds than sun, but it'll feel a bit more juicy, with both temperatures and humidity slowly rising. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-80s. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Ongoing showers and thunderstorms should diminish after dark, but we'll still see a chance (20%) for some boomers in the overnight hours. We'll see very few stars through the cloudiness and our lows should dip to the lower 70s. Confidence: Medium-High


Tuesday we'll really start to turn up the heat again as more sunshine emerges. But the heat brings along more chances (30%) for thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Before storms and cloud cover shut it down, we'll warm up into the low-to-mid 90s. Overnight, it's on the sticky side, with thunderstorms diminishing into the night and mostly cloudy skies remaining behind. Lows will be in the mid-to-upper 70s. Confidence: Medium

Wednesday should be the peak of our heating this week as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front that will be here early on Thursday. Skies will be bright through the early afternoon when we're likely so see some more thunderstorms develop. Afternoon highs will likely reach the mid-90s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Brian Jackson  | August 1, 2010; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Enjoy your heat next week! I'll be in San Diego for business for a few weeks. Forecast is calling for upper 60's for the highs and low 60's for the lows. Ahhh paradise.

Posted by: B-Kraemer | August 1, 2010 6:52 AM | Report abuse

Sun is coming out here in Odenton, MD, and I don't see anything behind us on radar. If the atmosphere stays stable, maybe our rain might be done for the day. capx?

Posted by: snowlover | August 1, 2010 6:57 AM | Report abuse

August starts with a nice rain shower right after midnight.
I love a low UV low 80's day in the middle of summer.
Who's going to get rained on & how much will they get? Let the day's rainstorm lottery begin.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | August 1, 2010 7:18 AM | Report abuse

Waking up to the end of showers was a nice way to start the month! We need the rain. There's sun shining into my office, so this is turning out to be a nice day!

Posted by: rosilandjordan | August 1, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

keeping a close eye on things for this afternoon/evening. there are hundreds of swim teams around the area who have planned OUTDOOR end-of-season banquets for today....

how are things shaping up for that crucial 5-10 pm window? should i be rooting for less sun (so things don't "heat up too much)? does that matter? what can i do personally to help keep rain away from falls church this afternoon/evening?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 1, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

"what can i do personally to help keep rain away"
Walter, the ancients usually went with a combination of chants, dancing & animal sacrifice.
Maybe just some dancing for a Falls Church dry slot?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | August 1, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Interesting how there has been a cloud hole right over us all morning. Looks to be filling in.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 1, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

i'm doing those things ('cept the animal sacrifice part...). they don't always work, though... also, i'm more accustomed to the snow dance...but am studying the "rain, rain go away" dance.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 1, 2010 11:44 AM | Report abuse

I'm dreaming of a white winter....

Posted by: Snowlover2 | August 1, 2010 12:25 PM | Report abuse

It's dry now here but with evidence it may have rained some overnight; grass was wet this morning, and the pattern was not typical of dew.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 1, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

me too, of course. but right now, i'm just focused on 5-10pm this evening. please, please, please no rain!

will there be an update this afternoon?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 1, 2010 12:42 PM | Report abuse


We don't typically do pm updates on the weekend unless there's a major change in the forecast. In this case, there is not. All we can say is that there's a chance (30 or 40% chance) some showers or thundershowers will pop up and your best bet is to keep an eye on the radar. Right now not a lot going on except for some showers east of town.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 1, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

can you tell me if this rain (that we're NOT going to have...) will work it's way in from the west, or if it will just "pop up" on the radar?

is 5:00 pm just about prime time for this rain (that we're NOT going to get...) to arrive?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 1, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse


The little activity there is now is drifting east. The high res models I just looked at don't show much through 5 p.m. Looks like whatever develops will be widely scattered and not too disruptive.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 1, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

thanks.... hopefully you will have to post an update: the "major change" being that the rain threat has suddenly vanished....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 1, 2010 2:10 PM | Report abuse

Got about .2" of rain last night, areas just S & N, as usual, received more. Now up to 1.5" in last 59 days.

Posted by: VaTechBob | August 1, 2010 2:10 PM | Report abuse

so, will we be able to see rain coming from the west on radar, or will it just "pop up" right above us?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 1, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Wind's picking up a bit and darker clouds rolling into Oakton right now. Noticeably cooler.

Posted by: PSUMarkDC | August 1, 2010 2:41 PM | Report abuse

I am absolutely loving today's weather - the temperature feels wonderful and I can finally open all of the windows in my apartment. It's so refreshing to have a totally comfortable day! It almost feels like Fall... almost :)

Posted by: CuseFan07 | August 1, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Heavy cloud cover has come in this last hour. Breezy & 75 degrees. Nice.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | August 1, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Forget it. Its not going to rain. We need a tropical system to break this drought.

Posted by: MKadyman | August 1, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

MKadyman - I've encountered several showers throughout the region today. Where are you located?--where it is apparently dry there? Most of the area is at least abnormally dry, but some locations between Fredericksburg & Leesburg are doing "ok" with rainfall. We'll keep monitoring!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | August 1, 2010 6:03 PM | Report abuse

I've been out and about today and thought it was just going to pour 3 or 4 different times, didnt see a drop though. still some light showers about. Mostly off to the east right now though.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 1, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

I think we (Broad Run/New Balto) might be in vatechbob's dome. No rain today. Little shower last night around 11 p.m. That's it. Assume we got the monster storm last week but nuthin' else, b/c everything's still pretty crispy around here ... that said, it was a lovely fall-like weekend. Please Sir, may we have some more?

Posted by: weathergrrl | August 1, 2010 10:40 PM | Report abuse

thank you, thank you, thank you god (which i don't believe in) for keeping rain out of falls church tonight.... you rock!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | August 2, 2010 1:23 AM | Report abuse

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