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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/23/2010

Forecast: Week starts showery, ends sensationally

By Jason Samenow

* Outside now? Clouds, temps & more: Weather Wall | NatCast *
* Follow tropical storm Danielle: Hurricane Tracking Center *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

A few afternoon showers shouldn't spoil a decent start to the week.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably cloudy, chance of p.m. showers. 80-85. | Tonight: Chance of showers. 64-68. | Tomorrow: Chance of showers. 75-80. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

On-and-off showers to start the week are hard to shake, but just wait 'til Friday when some of this summer's nicest weather arrives - long overdue. I think we'll see sunny and dry 80-85 weather that continues through the weekend. As I mentioned the other day, no 90-degree days are in our immediate future. With average temperatures continuing to decline, the odds of reaching the record of 68 days from 1980 (we're at 54 now) seem extraordinarily low at this point.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): We have a decent chance of at least partial sunshine through the morning hours, but clouds increase in the afternoon. That's when a very stubborn upper level disturbance sets up shop over the region - offering intermittent shower chances through Wednesday. The chance of rain this afternoon is 30-40% -- so we're not talking about a lot of rain and some places may miss out entirely. Despite the increase in clouds, afternoon highs should still sneak into the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Under mostly cloudy skies, a few scattered showers are around and about (40% chance of measurable rain) but it's not a steady, appreciable rain. Lows fall into the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Do you agree with the 'Digit'? Vote in the Digit box above. And keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Mostly cloudy skies may hold high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s. Will we miss hitting 80 for the first time since June 9? There's a legitimate possibility. The best chance of showers is probably in the afternoon (40-50%) though a few could (30-40% chance) pop up in the morning. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Skies are mostly cloudy and shower chances drop slightly to 20-30%. Low temps are in the low-to-mid 60s (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

The pesky upper level disturbance finally pulls away to the north on Wednesday which means a solid shot of at least partial sunshine. A shower or two could linger -- especially to the northeast in the afternoon -- but chances are just 20% or so. The increase in sunshine helps temperatures rise back into the low 80s. Partly cloudy overnight with lows 63-70 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A cold front passes through the region Thursday but won't have a lot of moisture to work with. So skies should be at least partly sunny with just a 20-30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs should be seasonable -- in the mid-80s. By Thursday night, skies clear as cooler and drier air begins streaming into the region. Lows range from the very pleasant upper 50s in the cooler suburbs to the mid-60s downtown. Confidence: Medium

The Friday through Sunday stretch is very promising. High pressure builds in from the north Friday and settles over the region for Saturday and Sunday bringing delightfully low humidity, sunshine, and enjoyable temps. Highs slowly increase from near 80 Friday to the low 80s Saturday before possibly reaching the mid-80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be the real treat with 50s in the cooler suburbs to the low 60s downtown. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | August 23, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Hope everyone has a good Monday. Will you enjoy the cooler temperatures?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | August 23, 2010 8:10 AM | Report abuse

Jason - Is that a sunny 81 degrees on Friday, under what I assume to be high pressure? If that is some sick joke to toy with us Fall-weather lovers, I will be very disappointed.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | August 23, 2010 8:29 AM | Report abuse

I will try to enjoy the cooler temperatures, but will be waiting for the inevitable return of hot and humid weather. I keep hearing that September will be extremely warm, and possibly into November. Cool, crisp Fall weather is my favorite. It won't feel like Fall, with 80 and 90 degree temps making frequent appearances!

Posted by: CJWill1 | August 23, 2010 8:54 AM | Report abuse

Cool and comfortable weather sounds pretty great to me! Last night after that line of weak storms blew through, the winds must have shifted or something because it felt significantly less humid. We spent our evening marveling at the temperatures and BBQing in comfort. I can't wait for this legendary weekend weather to get here!

Posted by: CuseFan07 | August 23, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

@CJWill1 - we had very warm June and July but August has to be below average I think. (will get the numbers at the end of the month but so far it's looking good)

No reason to expect a warm September.

Posted by: LoudounGeek | August 23, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

@authorofpoetry

It is -- over the last 10 days or so that pattern has been changing. It's not to say we won't have some more hot days. But time and averages are on our side...

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | August 23, 2010 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Jason - Thanks! Hopefully this Fall will be a great one. I started my biostatistics course for my MPH today and I want that to be the only truly crappy thing about this Fall. I'll leave my weather expectations to you folks, and the success of the Redskins to Shanahan. I'll deal with my math.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | August 23, 2010 9:54 AM | Report abuse

I have tickets to tonight's Nats game. How likely do you think showers or thunderstorms are for DC 7pm and into the night?

Posted by: sd_98119 | August 23, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

@sd_98119

Per NatCast in the post below (we do these for every home game) -- possible but not likely -- a 30% chance of showers.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | August 23, 2010 10:11 AM | Report abuse

Cooler is ok, but I'll also enjoy drier. On Saturday I think my shirt was as soaked as any time this summer. Maybe I am getting better at sweating.

Posted by: eric654 | August 23, 2010 10:22 AM | Report abuse

Cooler weather with highs under eighty is rather unusual between Memorial Day and Labor Day--we still have a week and a half to go. Right now, the additional rain is unneeded unless we're due for a very dry autumn.

Not sure now whether September here will be warmer than normal, but I am sure that the formation of Tropical Storm Danielle heralds the beginning of what could be an active Cape Verde hurricane season.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 23, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

Bombo, there is a small upper low protecting Florida and a big upper low diving south from NYS right now. My guess is by mid September this year there will be more such features which will bring hurricane season to a quick end.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_00.gif

Posted by: eric654 | August 23, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

CWG,

I am planning a day trip down to Kings Dominion on Wednesday. If the low is moving towards the north on Wednesday (as noted in your forcast) does that give the Doswell area a better chance for more sunshine (an no rain) than the DC area on Wed? I'm a bit nervous becuase the NOAA forcast actually gives that area a better chance for rain than DC on Wednesday which seems to contradict your forcast above. Thanks!

Posted by: capsnumber1 | August 23, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

CWG,

I am planning a day trip to Kings Dominion on Wednesday. What is the shot of having a nice mostly sunny warm day down in Doswell? From your forecast above it seems like since the low would be moving towards the north the chances are pretty good, but the NOAA forecast actually call for a better chance of rain in Doswell than DC on Wednesday....

Posted by: capsnumber1 | August 23, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Oops - sorry for the double post - didn't think the first one went through.

Posted by: capsnumber1 | August 23, 2010 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Earlier today, an OCM, whose work I respect, said today that tomorrow is apt to the be first day since June 9 when afternoon temperatures are not in the 80s.

I don't think last Wednesday's (8/18) afternoon high was in the 80s. The daily high of 82 occured at 12:36 a.m. and as CWG mentioned last week, the temperature remained at above 80 for several more hours, until the deluge began).

So, as we get ready to possibly celebrate the end of our 75 consecutive days of 80 degrees or higher temps, wanted to mention this. (And if the afternoon high on August 18 really was 80 or higher, then I stand corrected.)

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | August 23, 2010 2:13 PM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1

8/13 came closest:

for DCA on 8/13
weather.com reported 79/73
NWS recorded 80/73

for IAD on 8/13
weather.com reported 76/70
NWS recorded 76/70

Posted by: LoudounGeek | August 23, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

@capsnumber1

Rain chances will be higher to the north and to the east...where the disturbance is moving. Skies probably won't be mostly sunny Wednesday (just partial sunshine), but rain chances seem pretty low -- and lower at Kings Dominion than here despite what NWS says in our opinion.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | August 23, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Jerry, you are correct. The afternoon high was 74 by hourly observations (perhaps 75 for a peak)

Posted by: eric654 | August 23, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Eric and LoudonGeek re: the DCA observations on 8/13 and 8/18. There was one day (8/15) when the high of 80 was attained until about 7 p.m., which is unusual (Ian posted about this when it happened.)

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | August 23, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

Thanks CWG! I'm definitely pulling for your forecast over NWS!

Posted by: capsnumber1 | August 23, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Jerry, here's the hourly data for the 18th if you need it for your records...

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/8966364420373dat.txt

(note times are in Zulu)

Posted by: eric654 | August 23, 2010 5:19 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Eric. I was sound asleep when the rain started and when I awoke, the deluge had already begun, but you can really see how temps dropped once the precip moved in.

Appreciate the link!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | August 23, 2010 9:34 PM | Report abuse

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