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Posted at 1:30 PM ET, 08/24/2010

Weather Services International: Expect warm fall

By Jason Samenow

* Beautiful weekend likely: Full Forecast | NatCast | Is 2010 extreme? *

Weather Services International (WSI), a private forecasting company owned by the Weather Channel, is calling for a warmer than average fall for much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast:

wsi-temps.jpg
Predicted departure from normal for fall temperatures. Source: WSI.
"The combination of the La Nina event, a relatively cold north Pacific, and a record warm north Atlantic are quite bullish for a very warm fall period, especially across the northeastern quarter of the country," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. "However, the historically persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which would act to keep temperatures down in much of the eastern US, looms large as the most significant source of forecast uncertainty."

If this outlook is right, we may well add to our 90+ degree day tally -- currently at 54 and14 shy of the record set in 1980. La Nina years often produce warm falls. During our last La Nina fall in 2007, we had a streak of 3 straight 90+ degree days in early October and the month finished more than 8 degrees above average.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's outlook into the fall is in partial agreement with WSI, predicting above average warmth over the next 30 days, but equal chances of above and below normal temps through November.

By Jason Samenow  | August 24, 2010; 1:30 PM ET
Categories:  Local Climate  
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Next: PM Update: 80 degree or higher streak ends

Comments

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Enough with the heat already!

Posted by: BruinGirl2001 | August 24, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

I'm expecting the + temps 2 cont. thru this winter. My early winter outlook is 4 temps 2b 2-4 degrees above & below av. snow.

Posted by: VaTechBob | August 24, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

That does not sound good to me right now. What does this say about expected overnight lows? I can't wait to sleep with open windows on a regular basis again.

Posted by: maralenenok | August 24, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Decent chance we'll top 60 days of 90 degrees or higher. Doubt the record of 67 will be broken.

In 1980, it was 101 on the first day of fall (something Ian verified earlier this summer).

But before we heatophobes lose it completely at the heat wailing wall, there is a qualifier in the above post:

"However, the historically persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which would act to keep temperatures down in much of the eastern US, looms large as the most significant source of forecast uncertainty."

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | August 24, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

UGH. I mean, really? Is it so much to ask for four seasons instead of just Summer and Winter? DARN YOU LA NINA!

Posted by: jacquelinemathis | August 24, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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