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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/ 1/2010

Forecast: A new month... same old heat

By Dan Stillman

90s for now but cool down coming; Earl effects?

* Earl Q&A transcript | Hurricane Tracking Center | Reliving Katrina *
* Outside now? Clouds, webcam & more: Weather Wall | UnitedCast *
* No. of 90+ days: 57 (Record: 67, 1980) | Code Orange air quality *
* Post Now: Hurricane Watch issued for Virginia beaches *

updated at 10:25 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


Air quality slightly better than yesterday and a day closer to a cooler weekend raises the digit by 1.
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Sunny & hot. Mid-90s. | Tonight: Mostly clear. Mid-60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Low-to-mid 90s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


We just can't seem to buy a "boring" weather month in 2010. September begins just as busy as the rest of the year has been, starting today with what will be the year's 58th 90-degree day and the third straight day of highs in the mid-90s. Next up on our jam-packed weather schedule is Hurricane Earl, who shouldn't bother us here in the D.C. metro area, but is a concern for coastal locations Thursday into Friday. Fortunately, the holiday weekend brings a welcome break in the action with sunshine, cooler temperatures and no rain.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Morning temperatures rise steadily into and through the 70s and 80s. By early afternoon we'll have clinched yet another 90-degree day, and a full day of sun eventually pushes highs to the mid-90s. Humidity may be a little higher than the past couple days, but I wouldn't call it high. Tolerable humidity has been the saving grace of this latest heat wave, plus the fact that summer's got to give it up sooner or later, right? Confidence: High

Tonight: It's another very warm evening with temperatures dropping through the 80s. Skies continue mostly clear and overnight lows end up in the mid-60s (suburbs) to low 70s (downtown). Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through Labor Day...

Tomorrow (Thursday): A cold front moves eastward across the Midwest as Earl begins to track up the coast. Neither should get close enough to bring any significant change to our weather. It's another hot and sunny one with highs in the low-to-mid 90s and humidity mostly unchanged. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: If we were to see any showers and gusty breezes from Earl it would be Thursday night into early Friday as it makes its closest approach to the Delmarva coast. But I dont' think we will. So for now I'm expecting a quiet night with some of Earl's outer cloud bands possibly passing through and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. It's a different story along the VA/MD/DE coast, where showers and gusty winds are a threat. Confidence: Medium


Friday brings our last chance of hitting or surpassing 90 for at least several days. Partly to mostly sunny skies help highs to near 90 or the low 90s. Clouds increase later in the day, and a few showers are possible Friday night as a cold front comes through and lows settle in the mid-60s to near 70. Confidence: Medium

A pretty fantastic Labor Day Weekend awaits, though probably cooler than what most would consider ideal for the pool or beach. Mostly sunny skies are likely throughout with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday and Sunday, and in the 80s on Monday. Note that Saturday could be fairly breezy in the wake of Earl and the cold front, and Saturday night and Sunday night lows should dip all the way down to the 50s in the suburbs to around 60 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Headed to the Maryland/Delaware beaches for the holiday weekend? We'll provide a full beach forecast tomorrow, but generally speaking Earl should be out of the picture by late Friday, giving way to a mostly sunny Saturday, Sunday and Monday with highs around average for the first week of September -- in the upper 70s to low 80s. In the water, not as nice with rough seas and rip currents a threat.

By Dan Stillman  | September 1, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: UnitedCast: Summer warmth for semifinal
Next: Summer 2010 hottest on record in Washington


I am trying to convince my wife that a trip to Nags Head (2 miles inland) is not a problem. Being brushed by a category 2 or 3 is not a real issue for me. If we leave tomorrow morning and hunker down Thursday night we should be fine. Right?

Posted by: eor11 | September 1, 2010 5:18 AM | Report abuse


Since the NWS server won't serve up that image, you can see it here:

Posted by: eric654 | September 1, 2010 6:31 AM | Report abuse

Geeze, this is getting silly...enough with the sun and heat heart won't be broken if the 90 degree day record stands as is. Basically are you guys saying we're not going to even get a spin off shower from Earl or the front passing through? Definately NOT looking for a washout here (and certainly not a landfalling hurricane), but a nice rain shower or two on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning wouldn't hurt the plants and trees. Btw, who are these people who would say that sunny and and upper 70's to low 80's is not NICE ENOUGH for the end of summer holiday weekend (glad I'm not married to them)?? With lines like that you guys are starting to sound like a bubbly TV met......

Posted by: ftwash | September 1, 2010 6:37 AM | Report abuse

With regard to everyone asking about how Earl will affect their beach vacation, why don't I see any mention about the surf still remaining rough even after the storm has passed? It takes some time for the ocean to calm down so folks will likely have to deal with rough surf/rip currents for a few days after.

Posted by: dhenfan | September 1, 2010 6:38 AM | Report abuse

Dry air entrainment in the amounts seen in the image above is the kiss of death. There's more dry air available and that tongue of dry air to the south and east will eventually make its way into the center to disrupt the eyewall. It's already close enough to the center to cause some weakening.

Posted by: eric654 | September 1, 2010 6:49 AM | Report abuse

According to this website:

the waves are predicted to drop off quickly for the weekend. Hopefully that means any rip currents will also drop off quickly with the wave energy going away.

Posted by: gmbuley | September 1, 2010 7:51 AM | Report abuse

Swellinfo, which has been pretty good, shows chest to shoulder through Sunday. So it's still pretty big, and you want to be careful.

Posted by: wiredog | September 1, 2010 8:19 AM | Report abuse

"If we leave tomorrow morning and hunker down Thursday night we should be fine. Right?"

--I'm sure you'll be fine. Bear in mind the local media, both places like the Post and also the local TV news outlets, are in the business of getting you to click on their web pages and watch their channels.

I flipped between ABC, FOX, and NBC this morning and the lead-in stories were all on the fearsome Earl and its effects on us for the holiday weekend. But then when the meteorologists all spoke, they almost all spoke verbatim on how this thing isn't going to impact us much at all, and any effects would be well over by Friday evening.

Notice all the forecasts. Sunny and 80 for Saturday. Real scary.

Posted by: jollyroger2 | September 1, 2010 8:36 AM | Report abuse

So, no rain, no nothing in the DC area as a result of the hurricane passing by?

Posted by: futbolclif | September 1, 2010 9:10 AM | Report abuse

@JollyRoger, yeah, the Earl hype has been close to nauseating. But it's the same with winter snows. The SLCB is the best reality check during the cold weather months, even when it's a downer in terms of snow probabilities.

Meanwhile, weather gods, please, oh please, bring an end to this heat after next week's forecast spell of 90-degree days (at least on Acuweather). We've broken enough warmth records already this year. Just fast forward to cooler weather.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 1, 2010 9:16 AM | Report abuse

Last week at this time there were forecasts that this entire week was going to be mild and in the 80s. Seems like we're falling into the same trap this time. Wishful thinking?

Posted by: jojo2008 | September 1, 2010 9:29 AM | Report abuse

2nd to last paragraph typo:
"Mostly sunny skies are likely throughout throughout with highs..."

Posted by: jyjr16 | September 1, 2010 10:01 AM | Report abuse


Like I said, it's going to be a "pretty fantastic" weekend. But I'd argue most people would prefer a little warmer for the purposes of the pool or beach. For everything else, it's just about perfect.

@fwash & futbolclif

Right, probably no rain in the D.C. metro area from Earl, which is pretty much the story we've been telling for a few days now. The front could bring a few showers as mentioned in the forecast.


Yes, rough seas and rip currents are a threat along the coast into the weekend. We've been mentioning this in our daily Earl updates, another one which is to come later this morning, and added a mention to the quickie beach forecast above. We'll have a more detailed beach forecast tomorrow.


Didn't see those forecasts here. Confidence is high for cooler weather this weekend.


Thanks!... now fixed.

-Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | September 1, 2010 10:18 AM | Report abuse


If you're sufficiently inland and not in the mandatory evacuation zone, you should be ok if you're in a sound structure. Our forecast keeps the worst of the impacts offshore in any event. But ultimately, this has to be your own decision based on your risk tolerance.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 1, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

bring it on and wash away the teabaggers

Posted by: jiji1 | September 1, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

Will be in later with my evaluation of Met Summer 2010...basically I give it a B-minus; a bit on the warm side and with adequate moisture, but too much severe weather.

The big downer this summer has been all the whining for unneeded rain which seems to approach a crescendo whenever I have a big dance coming up. For once I'd like to see a summer when the days I need to be on errands or going to scheduled activities are clear and the rain tends to occur on those days I can stay home. Now with Hurricane Earl around, I notice some of the whiners seem to be longing for a direct hit which could turn the Potomac Basin into something a bit like Pakistan has recently been experiencing...or "Katrina East" if the "levees don't hold". Frankly I'm OK with the current "Earl" track, which seems to edge westward with each advisory. Hopefully the heavy weather will bypass this area.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 1, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

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