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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/27/2010

Forecast: A soaking, stormy start to week

By Jason Samenow

Crisp and cool this weekend

* Outside now?: Weather Wall | Hurricane Tracking | NatCast *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

A rainy, wretched beginning of the work week. At least the plants are happy.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Showers and t'storms, some heavy. 70-75. | Tonight: More heavy showers and t'storms. Steady temps in the 70s. | Tomorrow: Chance of a.m. showers, then partly sunny. Low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Rain has been hard to come by over the last four to six weeks but a moisture-laden southern storm changes all of that over the next two days. Bands of showers and thunderstorms, sometimes heavy, pivot through the region through tomorrow morning, potentially producing up to 2 or 3 inches of rain. There's a slight chance of more rain Thursday into Friday before our first real taste of cool fall air settles in for the weekend.


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Allow some extra time for the a.m. commute. Rain showers and even some embedded thunder are likely at times this morning. By late morning or early afternoon, there may be a break from the rain and even some temporary brightening of the skies, especially south and east of the District. It's these areas where the atmosphere may destabilize, increasing the risk for thunderstorms with damaging winds later in the day and at night. For locations further to the west (west of Fairfax and Montgomery counties), though odds are lower for severe storms, higher rainfall totals are likely due to more persistent rainfall. High temps will range from near 70 west and northwest of the District to the mid-70s southeast of town. Winds are from the south at 15-20 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms are likely and may be heavy at times. A few thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and a slight risk of tornadoes, especially south and east of the District. Temperatures hold steady - from 70-75 as strong flow from the south taps humid, tropical air. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:
Probability: 70%
Coverage: Scattered-widespread

Keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): We could have some gusty showers and storms for the morning commute, but fairly rapid clearing after that as the storm pulls away to the north. Afternoon sunshine is a good bet, with just a slight (20% or less) chance of an isolated shower or t'storm late in the afternoon as a cold front pushes through the region. Temperatures probably warm up into the low 80s or so before the front clears. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy cooler, and drier with lows from the low 50s in the cooler suburbs to near 60 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Tranquil weather makes a comeback Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs 75-80. Clear and seasonable at night, with lows 51-58 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

Thursday and Friday present the biggest forecast challenge of the week. We've got a a couple potential scenarios: 1) A tropical storm system over the Caribbean gets captured by a dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S., socking Florida and then charging up the East Coast with rain and wind. 2) Said tropical low misses the jet stream and is pushed by incoming high pressure out to sea. I'm favoring scenario 2, meaning a couple of pretty nice days Thursday and Friday with sunshine and highs in the 70s to near 80 (overnight lows in the 50s). But stay tuned, as changes to the forecast are certainly possible. Irrespective of the scenario, a cold front is likely to pass through the region late Friday. Confidence: Low

The coolest air of the young fall season arrives for the weekend. Canadian high pressure pays a visit giving us sunny skies, but cooler than average temps. Highs both days are probably stuck in the 60s with overnight lows dropping deep into the 40s in the cooler suburbs to near 50 downtown. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | September 27, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Hefty rainfall totals possible through tomorrow

Comments

1/3 inch so far, SW of Front Royal with steady light-moderate rain. Where do I send the check?

Posted by: eric654 | September 27, 2010 5:15 AM | Report abuse

The Weather Channel just now seemed to favor the system or remnants taking the former track.

This is why I like CWG. You don't get caught up in the fear factor game, or push the ambiguity.

But you do let us know of the possibility.

TV forecasting is getting too much in the scary part, in order to keep ratings up.

Posted by: jaybird926 | September 27, 2010 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Uh... Low 80s doesn't say "crisp" to me at all. But, hell, it's better than it has been!

Posted by: sigmagrrl | September 27, 2010 8:53 AM | Report abuse

@sigmagrrl

"Crisp" is in reference to the weekend, when it's going to be in the 60s."

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 27, 2010 9:00 AM | Report abuse

I've seen one spot, where they've trimmed the grass away from the sidewalk and there's some earth exposed, where the trickle of water on the exposed earth shrinks down to nothing...

Not a whole lot of puddles, either.

That's what I call thirsty. :)

Posted by: MKoehl | September 27, 2010 9:15 AM | Report abuse

MKoehl - same here in Metro Center dc... no puddles.. despite at least 0.4" of rain!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 27, 2010 9:43 AM | Report abuse

OH!!! Well, that makes more sense LOL I'm absolutely looking forward to 60s.

Posted by: sigmagrrl | September 27, 2010 10:29 AM | Report abuse

sigmagrrl - I am going to do the happy dance once we get 60s!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 27, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

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