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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/14/2010

Forecast: Warm days and cool nights

By Matt Rogers

Chance of showers late Thursday into early Friday

* Candidates embrace climate denialism | Hurricane Tracking Center *
* Outside now? Radar, temperatures & more: Weather Wall *
* Later: Interview with NBC4's Doug Kammerer *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


An excellent day, but winds/pollen could be annoying for some.
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Mostly sunny. 81-86 | Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool. 50-61. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 78-83. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


The balance of this week continues to offer splendid weather conditions most of the time. A dry cold front delivers another batch of Canadian air this morning. While sunshine prevails most afternoons, a weak disturbance could offer some morning clouds tomorrow and then another weather system offers a few showers Thursday night into Friday morning. Despite these minor distractions, the weather looks wonderful again this weekend with sunshine, warm days, and cool nights.

Today (Tuesday): The cold front this morning may be accompanied by a few clouds, but otherwise mostly sunny skies dominate today. Winds pick up this morning from the northwest at about 10-15 mph. Our humidity drops way down this afternoon. Temperatures pop into the low-to-mid 80s, but expect low-humidity, comfortable warmth. The bad side of the forecast is that winds and dry weather worsen conditions for allergy sufferers (like me!). Confidence: High

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies prevail tonight with low temperatures ranging from near 50 in the outer suburbs to near 60 in the city. Our winds retreat to the very light and variable variety. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Some morning clouds give way to midday and afternoon sunshine. Very comfortable temperatures in the low 80s will be coupled with light winds and very comfortable humidity. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear skies with lows ranging from near 50 in the outer suburbs to near 60 in the city again. Another very nice night overall. Confidence: High


Thursday should be partly to mostly sunny, but some clouds could creep in toward the late afternoon and evening. Expect warmer highs in the low-to-mid 80s. On Thursday evening into overnight, some showers could affect the area (30% chance) and lows are favored to drop back into the 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Friday runs the risk of morning showers (30%), but afternoon sunshine is favored to make a work-week encore appearance along with those persistent low 80s for highs. Friday night should find pleasant conditions with lows in the 50s in most spots (near 60 in the city). Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend looks fantastic with mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and daytime temperatures holding in the low 80s. Overnight lows drop into the 50s to near 60 once more. Enjoy this weekend as there are signs of a few last-minute 90-degree temperatures the following week (although it should at least be a dry heat). Confidence: Medium

By Matt Rogers  | September 14, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Interview with NBC4's Doug Kammerer


Has been a brutal ragweed season, no question. The ragweed supposed to have "peaked" late last week, but has it?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 14, 2010 6:03 AM | Report abuse


I think ragweed has peaked, although the pollen index is still in the moderate-to-high range today. indicates it should drop back down into the moderate range for mid-to-late week.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 14, 2010 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Thanks, Jason, the sooner the ragweed pollen count goes down, the better! And thanks also for mentioning

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 14, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Sunday was a huge disappointment! When will this insufferable weather pattern end? Enough with these sunny, dry, pollen laden days. Just a few cloudy days with a light rain....thats all I ask.....

Posted by: ftwash | September 14, 2010 10:17 AM | Report abuse

ftwash - I kinda liked the cool, moist air on Sunday as you did. But it was a disappointment for ya because.. most of the ~0.5" of rain fell early in the morning? I did not see much after waking either. But it sounds like you wanted more of an all-day rain, eh?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 14, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

Do your predictions for Friday hold true for Leesburg? I have an outdoor event that evening so I hope the rain is for the a.m. there as well.

Posted by: HillisHome | September 14, 2010 12:01 PM | Report abuse

Yes, HillisHome, the chance for showers looks very slight and in the A.M. even for Leesburg!

Posted by: MattRogers1 | September 14, 2010 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Most of the ragweed plants have released their pollen so the net amount of ragweed pollen should decline. However it won't disappear altogether until frost, usually late October to early November around here.

In addition other weeds and grasses are supplying windborne pollen. These include mugwort, artemisia and lambs-quarters, also several species of fall-blooming grasses and September-blooming Chinese elm. We don't have the true September elm (Ulmus serotina)or cedar elm (Ulmus crassifolia) both of which flower this time of year; these elms both grow west of the Appalachians in the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, but the introduced Chinese elm follows the same fall-blooming pattern.

The best near-term chance of rain will be late Thursday to early Friday, but could amount to a quarter-inch or less. General rains should become more frequent as the jet streams move southward within a month or so. Light steady rain will be more effective than the heavy showers we had before the current dry spell.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 14, 2010 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Look 4 above average temps & extremely dry weather 4 the rest of this month. I expect this pattern 2 last into at least the 1st half of Oct.

Posted by: VaTechBob | September 14, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Glad to have Bombo47jea & VaTechBob weigh-in!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 14, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

@Camden, it is good to get the detailed analysis, but it's not helping my allergies. ; ((

However, I'm glad we're not west of the Appalachians (except when they get more snow than we do).

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 14, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

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