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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/30/2010

Forecast: Soaking, perhaps flooding, tropical rains

By David Streit

Unseasonably cool, dry weather this weekend

* Flash Flood Watch thru today | Wind Advisory (eastern counties) *
* Outside now? Radar, temperatures & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Dog paddling in the morning (1) but possible breaks in the afternoon (4) rounds up to 3, barely.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Heavy morning rains, possibly continuing into the afternoon. 72-76. | Tonight: Cloudy, slight chance of rain. 57-64. | Tomorrow: Clearing and breezy. 73-77. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

By David Streit, CWG Meteorologist

Allow plenty of extra time for your commute today as very heavy rain is possible across the area. The morning commute could be quite treacherous with standing water a real concern. Do not attempt to drive through flooded roadways. Once we get through today, ready yourself for a cool air intrusion this weekend with highs mainly in the 60s. Parts of the western exurbs might even dip into the upper 30s by Sunday morning. Some might argue with me, but I think it beats the heck out of days of non-stop 90s!

Today (Thursday): Tropical downpours and localized flooding are likely this morning. Rain totals should be 2 to 4 inches in much of the immediate metro area (with localized higher amounts). Winds from the southeast at 10 to 20 mph could challenge umbrellas! East of town near the Bay gusts could exceed 35 mph, especially in heavy rain bands. After this morning's deluge, rainfall may decrease in coverage and intensity but not a definite (update: latest data continues heavy rain into afternoon). Highs make the mid-70s.Confidence: Medium

Tonight: There is a decent chance (50-60%) that a second surge of tropical rains comes through overnight with the best chance east of the Bay (70% chance). The breeze is still 5 to 15 mph from the southwest. The big question is whether we get more than 2.76" before midnight and set a 24 hour rain record at Reagan National. Overnight lows range from 60-65. Confidence: Low-Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

Tomorrow (Friday): Clouds should remain thick in the early morning but scamper out to sea as a strong high pressure system comes down out of Canada. Look for clearing before noon and a mostly sunny afternoon. Winds out of the north at 10 to 20 mph signal the changing of the air mass from tropical to Canadian. Highs top out mainly in the mid 70s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Temperatures tumble this evening like the leaves in the trees are beginning to do. 60s are pleasant enough but night owls should feel a chill as readings drift into the 50s. Overnight lows fall below normal (55F at National) with upper 40s to lower 50s prevalent. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday is a day of crisp, fall perfection. Partly sunny skies share the stage with light breezes. Morning 50s give way to afternoon 60s with a real tussle to see if we can make 70 for a high. Jackets are a good idea for evening adventures with low to mid 60s slipping to the upper 50s by midnight. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday breaks on a chilly note with mid-40s (cooler suburbs) to lower 50s. The Canadian high is in full control and readings only grudgingly ratchet up to the low-to-mid 60s in the afternoon. A mix of clouds and sun still makes this a delightful day. For those out and about in the evening check out Jupiter in the eastern sky. The planet is without a challenger in the evening now that the harvest moon is on the wane. Bundle up as readings quickly slip to the 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

Monday starts with a chill as most areas are in the 40s to near 50 downtown. There is a better than even chance that a new surge of moisture tries to make its way up the coast and into the area today. Look for increasing clouds and afternoon showers. As a result, temperatures struggle to make the lower 60s. Rain chances are 30-40%. Confidence: Low-Medium

By David Streit  | September 30, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Off momentarily to drive through the rain to Boston. 0.8 so far (SW of Front Royal) with little or no retention area flooding. If keeps raining at this rate I am good to go.

Posted by: eric654 | September 30, 2010 6:01 AM | Report abuse

Any thoughts on weather in Philadelphia on Saturday? We have an outdoor wedding and I'm hoping that your prediction of "Saturday is a day of crisp, fall perfection," is the same there!

Posted by: cassann981 | September 30, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

@cassann981

Weather looks great in Philly this weekend. Enjoy!

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 30, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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