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Posted at 3:10 PM ET, 09/16/2010

PM Update: Showers likely into the night

By Ian Livingston

More pleasant weather after, for foreseeable future

* Ragweed pollen above average | Climate myths (part 2) *
* Will hurricanes keep avoiding the U.S.? | Hurricane Tracking Center *
* Outside now? Radar, temperatures & more: Weather Wall *

It's been another warm day, this time with some extra humidity and slightly higher temperatures. Showers are now arriving in the area while additional activity forms overhead. While this could still be hit-or-miss for some spots, it looks like the commute home should be at least a little wet, especially over the northern half of the area. Highs that rose into the mid-and-upper 80s this afternoon should begin to fall as showers overspread the area.

Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, are likely through the evening and into the night. The risk will become less as we get past midnight, and by morning everything should be to our east. Temperatures fall to the low 60s in the cool spots to the upper 60s downtown.

Tomorrow (Friday): The cold front and its associated moisture should be out of here before the sun comes up and we'll be set up for another beautiful day. Mostly sunny skies will promote temperatures rising into the low-and-mid 80s. A breeze from the west and northwest should be little issue.

See David Streit's forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Tropics: Hurricane Igor continues its trek toward Bermuda today and remains a Category 4 storm with sustained winds estimated at 140 mph. Further east, Hurricane Julia continues to weaken as it spins harmlessly out to sea. Closer to home, Karl has become a hurricane today as it moves west across the Bay of Campeche. Karl is now expected to hit the coast of Mexico as a strong Category 2 storm and there is some chance it will make landfall as a major hurricane there.

By Ian Livingston  | September 16, 2010; 3:10 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: The six great early American climate myths
Next: Forecast: Staying warm through weekend


Sorry about the rush hour timing but I am very happy to get some rain.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | September 16, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

I second FIREDRAGON47.
Gardens everywhere will be thankful for even the smallest amount of rain. And, I enjoy the down time reaped when I don't have to water the gardens.
The GFS is not showing any significant moisture for our area for at least the next 10 days. Let's hope it is wrong. It also shows a tropical system in the gulf in a couple of weeks. Too far away to take too seriously, but just something to ponder.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | September 16, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

I, too, am grateful for any rain, although this afternoon's sprinkles in NE DC are barely enough to make imprints in the dust. Let's hope steadier rain will move in.

After 3 weeks on Cape Cod, I was shocked upon my return last week to see how stressed the vegetation is; leaves are already falling from the beautiful oaks and other hardwoods that grace Michigan Park.

National Airport will need 17+ inches of precipitation over the next 3.5 months to merely get us to our annual normal.

With the dreadful summer we've had, and short-term forecasts that suggest little, if any, rain (only exacerbating our ever-worsening drought), I fear that is not going to happen. Let's hope this pattern changes very soon, and we have significantly above-normal rainfall this fall! I am rooting for a tropical storm.

Posted by: TominMichiganParkDC | September 16, 2010 5:17 PM | Report abuse

Daily climate report shows DCA hit 92 today.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | September 16, 2010 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Weird? I only see 89 as the high...

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 16, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

@Ian, re: today's high, YES!! I guessed 63 days... now if we can hold it below 90 between now and Sept. 21.

Cooling degree days now up to 1,948; only 59 needed to top 1980's 2,006; when that happens, I'll (probably be the last to) agree 2010 outcooked 1980.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 16, 2010 5:46 PM | Report abuse

When it comes to stats I tip my hat in favor of Ian. The man is an abacus of 21st (and beyond) century data. It must be a between hour spike that he has seen, and we do not with the typical link on the CWG page.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | September 16, 2010 5:47 PM | Report abuse did we hit 90 today? Looks like my guess of 62 didn't hold.

Posted by: crazer | September 16, 2010 5:50 PM | Report abuse

Ditto on crazer's comment. Did we really hit 90 again? All in all, not the perfect September day to show an out-of-town visitor around DC and the Mall. Nice morning but a bit too warm and humid for my taste. Sticky afternoon rain made it feel a bit too July-like.

Posted by: meteorolinguist | September 16, 2010 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Didn't get enough rain 2 even make the sideway wet. Hope some people got some measurable rain.
A lot of poplar leaves r turning yellow & brown & falling
Wouldn't b surpised 2 c a few more 90 days this fall.

Posted by: VaTechBob | September 16, 2010 6:05 PM | Report abuse

It did indeed hit 92 today...Ian was referring to the NWS daily climate report which is as official as it gets. That puts us at 63 90+ days -- just 4 shy of the 1980 record of 67. With some opportunities to hit 90 next week, this is going to get very interesting...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 16, 2010 6:42 PM | Report abuse

Some data is pointing to a mid-summer like pattern for the middle of next week and beyond. Warm and humid. (80's possibly 90's).
I will be at Chincoteague and enjoying every minute away from DC. Hot and humid or not!

Posted by: pjdunn1 | September 16, 2010 7:01 PM | Report abuse

The DCA 92 degrees reading happened at 1:33 p.m., according to the NWS climate data page. There's no question Ian is a nonpareil weather statistician, but let's hold off on any more 90-degree days 'til the contest deadline has passed.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 16, 2010 7:49 PM | Report abuse

If it hit 92 degrees today, I believe it. I had to turn on the A/C, even though the indoor temperature without it was a lovely 74 degrees. The humidity didn't help.

That said, it's raining here in Alexandria/Arlington -- we really need all the moisture we can get (in slow and steady amounts, of course...)

In other news: Tornado in New York!

Posted by: rosilandjordan | September 16, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Jerry (or someone), can you post the link to the page showing the 1:33 temp? I would've figured it would've been closer to 3pm based on this site.

I guess I'm not too surprised... seems like DCA manages an intrahour high over 90 easily this season. My instruments in the mountains show a high temp of 73.6 today... the cold front passed here earlier. Currently 61.3... Approx 1/8th inch of rain in bucket.

Posted by: spgass1 | September 16, 2010 10:13 PM | Report abuse

Indeed, what a weather day on the East Coast.. eesh!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 16, 2010 10:14 PM | Report abuse

spgass1, here is the link. You shouldnt have to change anything from the default on load but make sure the radio button is clicked for "Daily Climate Report" with location selected as National, then click the "Go" button.

I was surprised it came that early, it would normally have shown up in the 6 hour readings that come out at 2 p.m.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | September 16, 2010 10:35 PM | Report abuse

Severe storms in NYC--one death--there's some video footage out on Eastern U.S, wx board and YouTube. Possible tornado in Brooklyn.

One more line possible due through here overnight.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 17, 2010 12:07 AM | Report abuse

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