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Posted at 8:30 PM ET, 09/28/2010

Tropical depression tracks aiming at metro region

By Jason Samenow

* PM Update: Brief respite in stormy period | TD16 eyes East Coast *

td16-track2-092810.jpg
Tropical depression 16 track projections. Source: Colorado State University

Many of the latest track forecasts for Tropical Depression 16 (TD16), likely to strengthen to tropical storm Nicole tonight or tomorrow, have converged over the D.C. metro region. Although it's inevitable that these forecasts will shift around some more, a heavy rain event for the metro region late Wednesday night into Thursday seems increasingly likely.

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Sterling wrote the following in its late afternoon discussion:

CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS AREA-WIDE PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THIS RANGE WOULD POSE FLOODING IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA.

. . . AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS CASE SOMEWHERE IN THE [AREA]...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 4 INCHES NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF FOR ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH.

Stay tuned to the Capital Weather Gang blog tomorrow and Thursday for the latest updates and storm coverage.

By Jason Samenow  | September 28, 2010; 8:30 PM ET
Categories:  Local Climate  
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Next: NatCast: Rain threatens last home game of season

Comments

I'm so excited guys about this storm. In fact I've been so excited this year. There has been so much wild weather! Can you imagine if this was a snow storm? There would be a million inches of snow!

Posted by: Yellowboy | September 28, 2010 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Sorry, got a little carried away there.

Posted by: Yellowboy | September 28, 2010 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Will the winds be an issue, too?

Posted by: Yellowboy | September 28, 2010 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Also, will this storm pull colder air into this region after it passes through? I've been hearing people talk about a cool down during the beginning part of October.

Posted by: Yellowboy | September 28, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

@yellowboy

Winds will be gusty, but probably not a huge issue (this will be a transitioning tropical depression or weak tropical storm)-- i.e. not strong enough to cause widespread power outages.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 28, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

All I can say is, oh, joy, and hope the storm follows the red track or the AEMI track so there's not a deluge in NYC, where 3 inches of rain and winds up to 38 MPH are now forecast. Better go pack galoshes!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 28, 2010 8:53 PM | Report abuse

Okay, yes I'm excited too. We are clearly sadists.

So which track gives us max rain? ;-)

Posted by: AdmiralX | September 28, 2010 9:13 PM | Report abuse

Why can't we get a simple rain that isn't accompanied by violent winds and damage?

It used to rain here all the time without having to worry about downed trees and power outages.

It seems we are either 5-10 degrees too hot or blasted with violent weather.

Posted by: AxelDC | September 28, 2010 9:37 PM | Report abuse

Interesting... we actually got around 2.5" of rain from yesterday's event east of Front Royal.

Btw, the link to the tropical depression article in the post immediately below this one goes to the wrong article.

Currently 57.2F

Posted by: spgass1 | September 28, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

As a faithful resident of Montgomery County, I have already picked up the fuel for the generator.

Posted by: vtavgjoe | September 28, 2010 9:46 PM | Report abuse

It's just not really fall until we get an all day rain event is it?

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | September 28, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

How does the Nats game look for tomorrow night guys? Rain late? If you could let me know! Thanks!

Posted by: jrodfoo | September 28, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

@Yellowboy,

Hah! You made me laugh. Your enthusiasm is shared by many of us regulars on this blog. While none of us really hopes the weather is so sever it wreaks havoc on the masses, it is fun to live with the extremes that we have no control over. As far as this specific event is concerned, the following quote is soo on the mark: "ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL." In other words, stay tuned. And have fun. Get excited. After all, what will be will be.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | September 28, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

@jrodfoo

Nats game for tomorrow night is questionable. The heaviest rain probably won't have arrived but there is a chance of showers. Check out NatCast updates tomorrow.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 28, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Jason!

Posted by: jrodfoo | September 28, 2010 10:31 PM | Report abuse

Flight out of DCA 2 p.m. Thursday and I'm a little concerned with making it out of here. Better to try to sneak out Wednesday night or later Thursday? Don't want to miss this trip.

Posted by: briancooper11 | September 28, 2010 10:34 PM | Report abuse

To folks worried about power outages-- While I can't rule out some limited outages due to gusty winds in convective rain bands, I really don't think outages will be a big deal with this storm. Rain is much more likely to be the troublemaker.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 28, 2010 10:34 PM | Report abuse

The NOAA guidance is saying the UK MET track is the most accurate at this time, and according to the following map, this takes it right over the DC area.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=16&av=4

If this track holds, what does that mean for rain totals, and is there a big difference between being on the east or west side of the track?

Posted by: FH59312 | September 28, 2010 10:40 PM | Report abuse

@briancooper11

Things may be starting to wind down around 2 p.m. Thursday though there could be some residual delays. A slightly later flight Thurs or Wed evening might be better but not sure I'd go changing anything as I still think the original Thurs flight has decent prospects (some delay potential notwithstanding).

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 28, 2010 10:45 PM | Report abuse

What a year this has been.

I remember this winter when I woke up one day, it was 23 degrees and sunny. Two hours later, while walking the dog, the temperature dropped to 16 and we had moderate snow. This NEVER HAPPENS IN DC.

Record snow.

3 blizzard warnings.

back-to-back blizzards in FEB

Earthquake.

Unusually severe storms.

Hottest summer on record.

And now, maybe Nicole. What a great year to live in the DC area!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | September 28, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

I still HATE these extended wind/rain events which disrupt my errands, etc.... the issue this time is my Thursday afternoon banking errand in Ballston, which I may now have to postpone till Friday PM. To make matters worse I may need to make an extra trip to the bank tomorrow PM just to get my real estate tax check in so it gets to the Arlington Co. treasurer's office by Tuesday the fifth. Apparently the bill for this tax installment never reached me in the mail, but it's too early to do my regular banking tomorrow. Unfortunately Thursday sounds like a TOTAL washout...though I'm still skeptical as "Nicole" could pass out to sea...the last big rain event Monday proved to be somewhat of a "bust"...we could still end up with 1.5" rather than 6" of rain.

This system also seems to be rather fast-moving if it hits us tomorrow night as planned. Normally a northward moving tropical system south of Cuba should take two or three days to get here--if it gets up here at all!

The Florida State U. cyclone phase evolution charts DO seem to bring this mess up our way, unlike the system earlier this week.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 29, 2010 12:21 AM | Report abuse

Ever since I moved here several years ago, I complained about the lack of "weather." I'm from Florida and also spent some time on an island in the Pacific, so I got used to severe thunderstorms and torrential downpours. Here, it just seems warm or cold, or somewhere in between.

This year has been very interesting in terms of weather. We've had outstanding snow amounts, record heat and now possibly a tropical storm all in one year. I predict, with absolutely NO scientific evidence whatsoever, that it will be a FREEZING winter, just to keep things interesting.

Posted by: WorfsBabyMama | September 29, 2010 6:17 AM | Report abuse

Weather Channel precipitation map seems to indicate the areas west of DC will get lesser amounts or rain (1-3 inches), while the areas closer to the Chesapeake will be higher (3-6 inches). Is there a consensus on this? I live in Western Fairfax, and while we certainly need rain, when it falls in such a short period of time, I'd much rather be on the lower end of the scale.

Posted by: FH59312 | September 29, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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