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Posted at 6:00 PM ET, 09/29/2010

Tropical storm Nicole is no more

By Jason Samenow

But related weather system to produce generous rains

* PM Update: Rain underway, much more coming | Dangerous flooding? *
* Flash Flood Watch thru Thurs | Wind Advisory (eastern counties) *
* Storm Timeline and FAQ | Nicole not so tropical | NatCast (updated) *
* Outside now? Radar, temperatures & more: Weather Wall *

From the National Hurricane Center (CWG emphasis in bold):

SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

. . . [COMPUTER] MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The bottom line here is that Nicole is dead but the incredible stream of moisture from the tropics that fed Nicole is being funneled into new low pressure that will spread very heavy rain over much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next couple days.

By Jason Samenow  | September 29, 2010; 6:00 PM ET
Categories:  Tropical Weather  
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Next: The calm before the rainstorm

Comments

We're going to get a lot of rain. Too much.
Don't drive into moving water going across the road. People die that way.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | September 29, 2010 6:40 PM | Report abuse

How much are things going to suck in the Bethesda/Silver Spring area around 7PM? Will the rain have basically stopped by then?

Posted by: JedinBethesda | September 29, 2010 7:25 PM | Report abuse

I'm glad the heavier rain is holding off 'til they can clear the I-270 flyover accident and unclog the Beltway.

Re: the moisture stream coming from the south, yes right now it is edging to the NNW. We'll know just how bad things will be here after the low forms off of the NC coast? But most of the models I've seen don't show a straight line trajectory up the east coast.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 29, 2010 7:39 PM | Report abuse

Here's an interesting thought....four school systems in NE North Carolina have already called for 2-Hour delays tomorrow....They are calling for the same weather we are to get. I wonder if that will happen with schools in eastern VA and here in Maryland? I guess time will tell!

Posted by: jcmcgrath1969 | September 29, 2010 7:47 PM | Report abuse

@JedinBethesda

Rain will wind down well before that -- probably around mid-afternoon or so.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | September 29, 2010 8:03 PM | Report abuse

Jerry, I mentioned this in the last post but briefly (and with visuals) here: The upper low pressure over the south is fairly "negative" tilted right now (note the top of the orange circle over the south leaning west and same with the lines in front of it), so everything in front of it is being pulled northwest. This is forecast to become more "neutral (south to north) as the night goes on and into tomorrow (see an 8am depiction here with the westward lean much less prominent). So, the pattern of rain heading northwest should transition to more of a south to north as well. There is still a moisture fetch into the tropics so it's a little early to think we're missing much.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | September 29, 2010 8:04 PM | Report abuse

Believe most of the DC area will get about 50% of the amounts now being called 4. More time than not, the rain totals r over estimated.
Guessing Nat. Airport barely gets over an 1".

Posted by: VaTechBob | September 29, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

Ian, that "tilt" explains why the precip has been trending NW up to now. Hope the beltway is cleared by now, because within the next few hours, we're going to start getting hosed by Mother N. And, yes, there's still some swirl down in Cuba.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | September 29, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

The negative tilt in the upper level low is not that great. Just enough to keep the moisture moving in a NNW direction, but just barely.
Looking at some of the buoy data off the SE coast and down near Cuba, the remnants of Nicole have yet to transfer it's energy to off the SE US coast. The barometric pressures are somewhat low but not yet falling like we would see when a low is forming.
Water vapor satellite images are impressive with a river of moisture stretching from the Caribbean through New England and Nova Scotia.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | September 29, 2010 10:34 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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