Capital Weather Gang - DC area weather blog, news - October 17, 2010

Forecast: Another fantastic fall weekend

Mother nature has a keen sense of timing lately, as the overwhelming majority of the season's nasty days have conveniently occurred during the work week. Almost without exception, the weekend days have been beautiful. That's the case again this weekend, with Saturday the sunnier of the two days. Sure enough, the next chance of rain is late Monday into Tuesday.

By Jason Samenow | October 23, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Forecasts
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UnitedCast: A fine home finale

* Our Full Forecast | Weather Wall | Soccer Insider * United vs. Toronto FCSaturday October 23, 7:30 p.m., RFK Stadium KickoffFinal WhistleWeatherChance of RainLow-to-mid 60sNear 60Partly cloudy5%For a late October game, it's reasonably mild with temps falling from the mid-60s to around 60. There could be some clouds but...

By Jason Samenow | October 23, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: UnitedCast
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Winter outlook aftershock: Bastardi knocks NOAA

Less than a day after NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather simultaneously released their winter outlooks, AccuWeather chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi has publicly criticized NWS for "following" and "not leading" with its predictions. On his Twitter feed this morning, Bastardi also insinuated NWS may have taken some its winter outlook ideas from him/AccuWeather.

By Jason Samenow | October 22, 2010; 10:00 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (21)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Government, Media, Winter Storms
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PM Update: Frost Advisory tonight, north and west

Brr! It's a little chilly out there, no? After one of the coolest starts this season, temperatures only slowly crawled higher through the day, despite abundant sunshine after some morning clouds. Sustained winds as high as about 15 mph, mixed with gusts to around 25 mph, have added a bit of a wind chill with highs only reaching the upper 50s to near 60. Winds should be dying down as we get into evening while a pretty spectacular weekend is ahead.

By Ian Livingston | October 22, 2010; 2:50 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Forecasts
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Cyclone Giri explodes, socks Burma shore

A dangerous tropical cyclone over the northern Indian ocean, Giri, rapidly strengthened overnight before making landfall in Myanmar, also known as Burma, today (Friday). The storm comes two and a half years after Tropical Cyclone Nargis devastated that country, claiming more than 100,000 lives. The Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center wrote this morning (Friday) that Giri's maximum sustained winds intensified by over 58 mph (50 knots) in 12 hours "indicative of explosive intensification." As of 7 a.m. this morning - just hours prior to landfall - maximum sustained winds were 140 to 155 mph (125-135 knots) with gusts to 190 mph (165 knots) - equivalent to a high end Category 4 hurricane. The storm was merely at category 1 strength yesterday.

By Jason Samenow | October 22, 2010; 1:00 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: International Weather, Tropical Weather
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Tropical Storm Richard will likely avoid U.S.

As Tropical Storm Richard threatens Northern Honduras with heavy rain that could produce flash floods and mudslides, the latest estimates put the storm's maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicts Richard will reach hurricane strength just before it reaches Belize in Central America early Monday morning. The good news is that with each passing run from the weather models, a northward move toward the Gulf of Mexico and the United States appears progressively less likely.

By Greg Postel | October 22, 2010; 11:20 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Tropical Weather
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Forecast: Friday breeze & chill; warmer weekend

Cool highs near 60 today, chilled by a moderate breeze, warm a good 10 degrees tomorrow and go even higher Sunday. But first, before the warm-up, we have to deal with the threat of frost in our western suburbs tonight. By Sunday, the thought of frost will be long gone as highs climb well into the 70s. Monday and Tuesday are warm, too, and you may even notice some humidity by then. Early-week shower chances depend on the uncertain speed of a weather system approaching from the west.

By Camden Walker | October 22, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Forecasts
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Typhoon Megi churns toward China

Massive Typhoon Megi, so big that it occupies half of the South China Sea according to NASA, continues on a collision course with the south coast of China.

By Jason Samenow | October 21, 2010; 7:30 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: International Weather, Tropical Weather
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PM Update: Winds bring in brief cool down

Today has been a welcome return to sunnier and warmer weather. Following the passage of a cold front and maybe a brief sprinkle for one or two spots, winds have been a bit noticeable, with gusts as high as about 30 mph from the northwest this afternoon. Nonetheless, highs in the mid-60s to near 70 still feel mighty fine! We're looking at a brief cool down for tomorrow, but plenty of mid-fall warmth thereafter.

By Ian Livingston | October 21, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
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Tropical Storm Richard blossoms in Caribbean

Welcome the 17th named storm of the 2010 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Richard. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now expects Richard, to become Hurricane Richard by Saturday morning. The storm, about 220 miles southeast of the Cayman Islands, has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is forecast to produce flooding rain of four to eight inches over Jamaica, with amounts up to a foot in the mountainous terrain.

By Greg Postel | October 21, 2010; 2:00 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Tropical Weather
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NWS & AccuWeather: Low chance for big snows

The National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather released their winter outlooks this morning and both agree the odds are strongly stacked against a historically snowy winter in the metro region.

By Jason Samenow | October 21, 2010; 11:30 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (43)
Categories: Winter Storms
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Engage in weather & climate at DC WeatherFest

This weekend (October 23-24. 10:00 a.m. - 5:30 p.m.), a giant Expo marking the culmination of the nation's first national science festival takes place on the National Mall and surrounding areas. More than 1,500 interactive exhibits and 75 stage shows are planned, representing more than 500 organizations. About 20 of these organizations are convening for the D.C. WeatherFest, which promises to engage visitors with activities and hands-on demonstrations exploring weather, water, and climate. Organizers are inviting everyone out to this first of its kind event locally, and especially students, teachers, retirees, boy/girl scouts and families.

By Jason Samenow | October 21, 2010; 9:50 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Education, Event, Science
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Forecast: On and off sun with mild temps today

Classic fall weather dominates the forecast through the weekend. Crisp chilly nights and mild sunny days provide the incentive to go out and take in some of the rapidly coloring leaves. Rain chances are nil through Sunday as high pressure settles in. A spot or two of frost in the far western suburbs can't be ruled out Friday night.

By David Streit | October 21, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Forecasts
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Another named tropical storm on the way?

After 18 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins this season (of tropical depression strength and stronger) -16 of which were named - the tropics are not done yet. Though November is just around the corner, and the conditions across these regions are gradually becoming hostile toward tropical cyclone formation, a disturbance south of Cuba (99L) is being monitored for possible development.

By Greg Postel | October 20, 2010; 7:30 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Tropical Weather
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PM Update: Gloomy weather on its way out

It's just one of those days. A good one for a nap if you aren't (or even if you are?) at work. Clouds have held tough across much of the area, and some brief light rain made it as far north as the D.C. and immediate surrounds before sinking back south and east as it departs. Highs have only made it to the upper 50s and near 60 thanks to the clouds and light rain around.

By Ian Livingston | October 20, 2010; 3:20 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Forecasts
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Early fall scenes on the Mall

Did you get outside this past weekend? The weather was hard to top. I was on the Mall Sunday morning for a photo shoot and overheard several people remarking about the wonderful weather. Even the sports announcers during Sunday night's Redskins game at FedEx Field remarked about the fine weekend weather in Washington.

By Kevin Ambrose | October 20, 2010; 1:30 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Photography
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Typhoon Megi likely to track east of Hong Kong

Typhoon Megi has strengthened over the South China Sea to Category 4 intensity. Packing sustained winds to 135 mph, Megi is currently heading due north at just under 10 mph. The latest track forecast is good news for Hong Kong, as the storm center is now projected to make landfall to its east and north. However, Hong Kong is well within the track forecast "cone of uncertainty" and is likely to be impacted by the storm's wind and rain.

By Jason Samenow | October 20, 2010; 11:30 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: International Weather, Tropical Weather
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House integrity tested with giant wind fans

Researchers have used 105 giant fans to create hurricane-force winds in an experiment that crumpled an ordinary home in minutes but left a better-built home standing. Engineers say the experiment carried out inside the Insurance Center for Building Safety in a rural area of South Carolina illustrates why fortified building materials and methods are better than those of conventional homes.

By Capital Weather Gang | October 20, 2010; 9:30 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Tropical Weather
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Forecast: Some a.m. rain south, sunnier tomorrow

With less than two weeks 'til Halloween, it's about time we get some chillier temperatures. And we'll get just that with the suburbs sinking toward lows in the 30s tomorrow night and Friday night. Otherwise, save for a chance of light rain today and maybe Sunday, the weather over the next several days is rather nondescript, which poses a bit of a challenge seeing as we're in the business of describing the weather here...

By Dan Stillman | October 20, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Forecasts
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PM Update: Showers possible late tonight

Following just a bit of rain and even a rumble or two last night, it's been relatively quiet today. Clouds and cool temperatures have been the rule, though there have been some breaks of sunshine this afternoon, especially south and west of D.C. Temperatures are largely near 60 and into the lower 60s so far, and those should be the highs for the day. We've got about 24 hours more of this type of weather before high pressure returns with more abundant sunshine.

By Ian Livingston | October 19, 2010; 3:15 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
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Typhoon Megi eyes China coast, Hong Kong

While no longer the freakish category 5 storm that hammered the northern Philippines, Megi remains a formidable and expansive category 3 super typhoon in the South China Sea. Packing winds of 115 mph, the U.S Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) tracks Megi on a course to make its second landfall very close to Hong Kong Friday into Saturday. However, there is significant uncertainty in track details due to poor agreement among forecast models.

By Jason Samenow | October 19, 2010; 12:10 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: International Weather, Tropical Weather
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Ready to rake?

I decided to have a little fun shooting one of the most common and disliked scenes of fall. As the saying goes, "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder." I found this scene kind of cool, particularly with a close-up view, but the owner of the car was probably not as amused.

By Kevin Ambrose | October 19, 2010; 10:25 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Photography | Tags: autumn, car, Leaves, rain
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Forecast: Fickle fall weather

As a forecaster and weather enthusiast, I'm not a fan of this pattern type. Fast-moving features along a flat jet stream bring brief bouts of rain, variable skies, and subtle temperature dips and bumps. Although no weather feature is too strong or sustained, this kind of pattern makes for tricky forecasting. The second half of the week does appear like it will be more clear cut than the first.

By Matt Rogers | October 19, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (12)
Categories: Forecasts
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Marveling at Super Typhoon Megi

Much has already been written about Super Typhoon Megi, the strongest tropical cyclone to hit a mass of land on the planet since Hurricane Dean in 2007. The one time Category 5 storm (now at Category 2), exhibited amazing satellite features prior to landfall

By Jason Samenow | October 18, 2010; 7:30 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: International Weather, Tropical Weather
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PM Update: A few shots at some showers

After an awesome weekend, we've started the work week on a slightly less awesome yet still rather pleasant note today. Skies that were mostly clear this morning have become increasingly cloudy as the day wears on, and even a sprinkle or two has passed through the northern part of the area. Temperatures which have risen into the mid-and-upper 60s will only slowly fall back this evening and overnight as clouds keep us somewhat insulated.

By Ian Livingston | October 18, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
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Climate warming: Hottest year-to-date on record

The first nine months of 2010 tied with the same period in 1998 for the warmest combined land and ocean surface temperature on record. The global average land surface temperature for January-September was the second warmest on record, behind 2007. The global ocean surface temperature for January-September was also the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

By Jason Samenow | October 18, 2010; 1:45 PM ET | Permalink | Comments (8)
Categories: Climate Change
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Is new global warming poll cause for despair?

Poll points way ahead for climate change communication * Light rain chances: Full Forecast | Good pumpkin weather? * News flash: Americans are confused about global warming. Of course, that's not exactly earth-shattering news, considering the bevy of polling data released during the past year, much of which has shown...

By Andrew Freedman | October 18, 2010; 11:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (44)
Categories: Climate Change, Freedman, News & Notes
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Forecast: Mostly magnificent Monday

Today: Becoming partly cloudy. 66-70. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of light rain late. 45-50. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, spotty light rain. 61-64. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

By Jason Samenow | October 18, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Forecasts
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Forecast: A sunny Sunday around 70

Well, if we keep getting weekends like this for the rest of fall, I for one, will not complain. The gusty winds we saw yesterday diminish and leave us with a delightfully warm autumn day. We'll see a bit of a transition tomorrow as clouds begin to darken our skies foreboding our developing rain chances towards midweek.

By Brian Jackson | October 17, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Permalink | Comments (8)
Categories: Forecasts
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Capital Weather Gang: October 17, 2010 - October 23, 2010