Forecast: Fickle fall weather
Mix of clouds and sun; mix of wet and dry
Originally posted at 5:00 a.m., updated at 10:40 a.m.
Today: AM clouds, light showers. Some afternoon sun. 63-67 | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. 44-50. | Tomorrow: AM rain likely, then variably cloudy. 61-65. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail
FORECAST IN DETAIL
As a forecaster and weather enthusiast, I'm not a fan of this pattern type. Fast-moving features along a flat jet stream bring brief bouts of rain, variable skies, and subtle temperature dips and bumps. Although no weather feature is too strong or sustained, this kind of pattern makes for tricky forecasting. The second half of the week does appear like it will be more clear cut than the first with an extended period of sunshine.
Today (Tuesday): We'll look for morning clouds with a 30% chance of showers, mainly north of the city (light rain totals, if any). Some breaks in the afternoon sky cover allow high temperatures to reach the low-to-mid 60s. Light winds blow into the area from the north and northwest. Confidence: Low-Medium
Tonight: Skies become cloudy again with light rain chances re-emerging (40% chance), especially after midnight and to the south. Lows are in the 40s in the cooler suburbs to around 50 downtown. Light winds from the northeast. Confidence: Low-Medium
Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...
Tomorrow (Wednesday): The morning brings variable cloudiness with light rain chances (60-70% chance). The best chance of steady rain is east and southeast of the District with coverage diminishing to the northwest. Afternoon conditions could feature a little sunshine. Highs are in 60s again. Confidence: Low-Medium
Tomorrow Night: Fewer clouds fill the night sky, allowing temperatures to drop lower with radiational cooling. Lows should be in the 40s in most spots, but maybe closer to 50 in the city. Confidence: Medium
Thursday, in my opinion, is the best day of this week. You may prefer Friday (see below), but that is your prerogative. I like Thursday better because even though there are a few clouds, temperatures make a run at the upper 60s or even near 70. A cold front approaches Thursday evening and that offers some evening clouds. Partly cloudy and turning colder Thursday night with lows dropping into the 40s again. Confidence: Medium
Friday features lots of sunshine, but cooler temperatures and lower humidity (lip balm weather). The dry air combined with some breezy conditions will probably feel cooler than the expected low-to-mid 60s. So, I like Thursday better. Mostly clear skies on Friday night means a chilly night with lows in the mid-to-upper 30s in the suburbs and low 40s in the city. Patchy frost is possible.
The weekend should see some temperature moderation with at least sunny skies to start. Highs should range in the mid-to-upper 60s on Saturday making for a nice day. Partly cloudy and cool conditions Saturday night (lows 40s, but 30s in outlying areas). Sunday is looking a bit murkier as clouds and possible showers could encroach by especially afternoon. Highs should be warmer though with upper 60s to maybe even low 70s, especially in the city. Confidence: Low-Medium
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