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Posted at 7:00 AM ET, 10/27/2010

Forecast: Gusty showers & storms a threat today

By Dan Stillman

Much cooler Friday and beyond

* Outside now? Radar, lightning, temps & more: Weather Wall *

originally posted at 4 a.m., updated at 7 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


Storms and strong winds could complicate the morning. But can't complain about the mild air.
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Showers & t'storms likely, some with strong winds. Mid-70s to near 80. | Tonight: Chance of showers & storms. Mid-50s to near 60. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Mid-to-upper 70s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


The storm system that clobbered the Midwest yesterday arrives in the D.C. area today with less fanfare, but the impacts could still be significant in some places. The main attraction is the potential for showers and storms with strong winds, both this morning and maybe again during the late afternoon into evening. The weather calms for tomorrow through the weekend, but with much cooler air arriving by Friday.

Through Mid-Morning: A cold front approaching from the west brings the likelihood of showers and potential for thunderstorms and strong winds through early-to-mid morning. Also can't rule out a tornado. The front likely loses some of its punch as it moves east into and across the region. The severity and coverage of storms and strong winds in the D.C. area depends on how fast or slow the front weakens, which is hard to say.

Probability: 60%
Most likely timing: Through 10 a.m.; 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.

Late Morning thru Early Evening: We stick with a chance of showers and storms through mid-afternoon, though they'll probably be fewer and farther between, and the potential for strong winds should decrease. Even with mostly cloudy skies, it's another mild day with highs in the mid-70s to near 80. Afternoon heating may be enough fire up another round of gusty showers and storms during the late afternoon into evening. Confidence: Low-Medium

Mid-Evening thru Tonight: By mid-evening, the shower and storm threat should shift south and east of the area. Overnight lows dip to the mid-50s (suburbs) to near 60 (downtown) under mostly to partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): The cold front has passed to our southeast. But the cooler air lags behind to our northwest, leaving us partly to mostly sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Winds are breezy at times, around 15 mph from the west. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Our mild stretch comes to end with partly cloudy skies, a lingering breeze and lows in the 40s, which is close to average for late October. Confidence: High


Friday will feel like fall through and through. Partly to mostly sunny skies are no match for cool breezes from the northwest, which help to hold highs to the mid-50s to low 60s. Friday night lows sink to the chilly 30s in the suburbs, where frost is possible, to near 40 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

We just can't seem to buy a bad weekend of weather around here (not that we'd want to). This weekend should be another nice one (though cooler than we're used to) with partly to mostly sunny skies, crisp mornings with temperatures rising into and through the 40s and into the 50s, and seasonable afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | October 27, 2010; 7:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Tornado watch until 3 a.m. for metro region
Next: Midwest storm by the numbers


Fantastic. From the looks of the radar, I'll have my best chance of seeing wind & rain just as I leave for the bus at 5:30am.

Posted by: --sg | October 27, 2010 4:10 AM | Report abuse

No tree debris for us (Alexandria)

Think we dodged a bullet wind-wise, although western side folks might have gotten some gusts.

Posted by: jaybird926 | October 27, 2010 6:20 AM | Report abuse

1" of much needed rain outside of Sperryville, VA, in a hollow between two ridgelines running off of the eastern side of the Blue Ridge. Heavy winds must have stayed at some altitude, because we didn't get any, the forecasts notwithstanding.

Posted by: NorthFork1 | October 27, 2010 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Gang - did anyone catch the record high minimums yesterday at IAD and DCA? IAD broke it at 61 and DCA tied at 63...looks like we may take today too at Dulles at least. Moist is the word.

Posted by: DullesARC | October 27, 2010 8:53 AM | Report abuse

Gusty winds, incredibly warm temps & moderate rain earlier this morning. Estimate of about an inch of rainfall overnight.
Blue sky appearing over Manassas now.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | October 27, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

The humidity associated with this system has been awful. Can't wait for the cooler temps coming this weekend.

Posted by: FH59312 | October 27, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Do you guys have any rainfall totals from last night? My rain gauge malfunctioned. It looks like we got a hell of a lot in NW Montgomery.

Posted by: MKadyman | October 27, 2010 9:49 AM | Report abuse

I can't wait for this system to leave. It's so unpleasantly humid, I feel like I grew moss overnight.

Posted by: maralenenok | October 27, 2010 9:58 AM | Report abuse

I second maralenenok's comment...this morning in my work clothes I was really regretting having taken out the window AC unit last week!

Posted by: kolya02 | October 27, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse


Yep... BWI joined the crowd as well -- tied the record high minimum for the day of 62.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | October 27, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

i noticed this rain was louder than most because of the sound of it hitting the layer of newly-fallen leaves.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | October 27, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

It's nearly November and I drove to work with the AC on again today. Come on stinkin' DC weather, I want fall!

Posted by: CuseFan07 | October 27, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

I'm not buying the "can't complain about the mild air" thing. It's been disgustingly balmy out the last couple of days. Thanks to the humidity, the wooden floors in my home feel like they've been doused in syrup, and they were just cleaned! Can't wait for a fresh blast of cold air.

Posted by: meteorolinguist | October 27, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse


A look at NWS mesonet and radar-estimated totals indicates that many spots around the area received in the range of .50"-.75". But NW Montgomery County hit the jackpot with a swath of totals more like 1"-1.25"

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | October 27, 2010 10:35 AM | Report abuse


I'm still a fan of the mild air, though I agree I'd prefer to have it without the humidity. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | October 27, 2010 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Got .75" in Falls Church, but the wind was a no-show...

Posted by: KPosty | October 27, 2010 10:53 AM | Report abuse

Will I still have a chance to paint my deck before winter comes?

--In Prince George's County, MD

Posted by: saracooper | October 27, 2010 11:45 AM | Report abuse

KPosty - Wind should pick up during the early afternoon. The front has stalled though, so we should be spared from the worst gusts! Are you happy to have received 0.75" of rain? pretty good total!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 27, 2010 11:46 AM | Report abuse

Looks like a very strong band of storms is about to slam into the Fairfax City area.

Posted by: FH59312 | October 27, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

New meso discussion from SPC, looks like a watch likely for DC and east.. prob tornado again. "Storms" moving in seem to lack lightning thus far.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | October 27, 2010 11:58 AM | Report abuse

Actually, some lightning now showing up.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | October 27, 2010 12:01 PM | Report abuse

Husband reports ferocious rain in Centreville; we have it too in Manassas.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | October 27, 2010 12:18 PM | Report abuse

rain in ballston, arlington, now. please answer my question about my deck! :)

Posted by: saracooper | October 27, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

The Vienna Halloween parade is tonight, kids line up at 6:30pm, the parade starts at 7pm. Is it going to be awful? There are going to be a lot of disappointed kids/adults if it is miserable out.

Posted by: bettylou1 | October 27, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Hope we get back to normal has been so muggy and GLOOMY the past two days.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 27, 2010 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Was this the last batch of rain, or is there still enough instability in the atmosphere to fire up more showers later today?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | October 27, 2010 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Hi Jerry, Dan mentions in his forecast that by mid-evening, the shower and storm threat should shift south and east of the area. There remains an outside chance of a shower thru mid-afternoon if you live in/near the Beltway.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 28, 2010 11:35 AM | Report abuse

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