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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 10/22/2010

Forecast: Friday breeze & chill; warmer weekend

By Camden Walker

Highs well into the 70s by Sunday

* Winter outlooks: Less snowy | DC WeatherFest | The Mall in fall *
* Outside now? Radar, temps, clouds & more: Weather Wall *

updated at 8:30 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Sunshine but a breezy chill. At least we can look forward to a warmer and less breezy weekend.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Becoming mostly sunny & breezy. Upper 50s to low 60s. | Tonight: Clear, patchy frost possible west. Mid-30s to mid-40s. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny & warmer. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Sunday: Partly sunny. Mid-to-upper 70s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A. Camden WalkerCool highs near 60 today, chilled by a moderate breeze, warm a good 10 degrees tomorrow and go even higher Sunday. But first, before the warm-up, we have to deal with the threat of frost in our western suburbs tonight. By Sunday, the thought of frost will be long gone as highs climb well into the 70s. Monday and Tuesday are warm, too, and you may even notice some humidity by then. Early-week shower chances depend on the uncertain speed of a weather system approaching from the west.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Not too bad a day, but highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. And they'll be chilled by some moderate breezes, in the 10-15 mph range by late morning. Skies become mostly sunny as sinking air behind yesterday's cold front should (for the most part) scour out any morning clouds. Bundle up and be prepared for that breezy chill. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Winds calm down to 5-10 mph or less as evening temperatures drop through the 50s into the 40s. With clear skies above, lows vary widely -- from the low-to-mid 40s downtown, to the mid-30s to near 40 in the suburbs. Some spots in the western suburbs may report their first frost! If you'll be out late, maybe grab your autumn weather "mittens" or a scarf from deep inside the closet? Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast into next week...when might it rain?

Tomorrow (Saturday): Sunshine prevails and breezes around 10 mph from the south/southwest help temperatures warm nicely from their crisp morning start. Afternoon highs reach the pleasant upper 60s to low 70s. A pretty darn nice day, wouldn't you say? Nice enough to check out the DC WeatherFest on the Mall. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Temperatures are considerably milder than tonight. Evening readings fall through the 60s and into the 50s as the breeze calms. Downtown probably bottoms in the low-to-mid 50s, with mid-40s to near 50 the range for the suburbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: Pleasantly warm pretty much sums it up. Highs make a run for the mid-to-upper 70s under partly sunny skies. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Skies may cloud up more on Sunday night with lows in the 50s. We'll probably stay dry as low pressure in the Midwest is slow to make progress east. We'll keep an eye on things in case timing changes. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday and Tuesday shape up as partly to mostly cloudy days with the chance of isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures remain warm with highs in the 70s to near 80 and a bit of humidity in the air. Confidence: Low

By Camden Walker  | October 22, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

The overnight lows are about 5 degrees warmer than they were supposed to be. DCA still hasn't gotten below 48 this fall. It used to be every October would see a few nights in the 30s.

Posted by: HenryFPotter | October 22, 2010 6:40 AM | Report abuse

If Accuweather's two-week forecast is correct, lows in the 30s should happening on or about November 1. A big IF.

Anybody see any woolly bear caterpillars crawling around? If so, are they getting their MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) going? Or are they wearing their darker NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) coat, which means it may not be such a mild winter?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | October 22, 2010 7:01 AM | Report abuse

P.S. Re: the caterpillars, apparently the Blue Ridge 'pillars were tucked in sable (or other dark fur) by this time last year.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | October 22, 2010 7:36 AM | Report abuse

Hi HenryFPotter - I looked at our CWG forecast in yesterday's PM update and we stated "mid-or-upper 40s downtown"- if you are referring to other outlets or raw numbers spit out by computer weather models, then perhaps they missed? I think we predicted ok :) Note, too, our average low is 47 at DCA right now. And we hit 48 overnight. Pretty spot-on for climatology.

JerryFloyd1 - I haven't seen any caterpillars downtown to report to you, sorry!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 22, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

Finally got below 40 here in the Blue Ridge Mtns earlier this morning... lo 39.4F

Posted by: spgass1 | October 22, 2010 10:02 AM | Report abuse

spgass1 - nice! did it feel too chilly to you? or was it exhilarating? :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 22, 2010 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Camden, it felt nice! I've started browsing the GFS models again for potential snow. Yesterday there was something of interest around 10/30 but it was gone with the latest runs...

Posted by: spgass1 | October 22, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

spgass1 - dont hold your breath for snow, just yet ;) btw, downtown for my commute-walk it was 48F this morning and it felt crazy cold. Man the acclimation curve is gonna stink for the next few weeks! Low temperatures around 80F all summer really messed me up haha

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 22, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1

Plenty of woolly bear roadkills [from biking!] on the W&OD Trail between Columbia Pike & Wilson Blvd. Nearly all of them show the same pattern as years past--a very wide orange-brown band that hints at the same ol' same ol' mild winter we keep having down here on the Potomac. Honestly, I'm beginning to think this is a genetic pattern; it varies little from year to year--but then again we keep having blowtorch-laden mild winters year after year. Even last winter featured a boringly mild precip. free January in between December's Snowpocalypse and February's Snowmageddon--and the period from February 15th on was strikingly DEVOID of any precipitation whatsoever...keeping the much-unneeded rain crowd back in business to harass me throughout the spring & summer. However I HAVE seen one huge fat all-black cold-wave woolly bear thus far--hinting at one huge near-record cold wave at least.

Trending now on the weather boards...Generally warm on the forecast next week. One item of note...an NWS product called MARS is hinting at possible severe thunderstorm probabilities next Friday the 29th hitting 25% around here...though the prelim. frontal-position maps have the associated cold-frontal passage late Wednesday or Thursday, so the severe weather could strike earlier in the week. Extended foecasts here predict seventie until Thursday, Tom Skilling has seventies in Chicago thru Tuesday, though, up towards the Northwoods, Eau Claire's extended outlook has a highest temperature of 62 next Tuesday. Leaf color in NW Wisconsin has peaked for the season, and state high school football playoffs begin Tuesday evening [for those interested, Eau Claire Memorial faces Stevens Point and Menomonie entertains Holmen, with Chippewa Falls {Chi-Hi} also representing the Big Rivers Conference].

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 22, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Bombo47jea - always good to have your thoughts, thanks!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 22, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

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