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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 10/13/2010

Forecast: Thursday rain, otherwise cooler but nice

By Dan Stillman

Windy Friday into Saturday

* Old Farmer's Almanac time | Brooklyn hail storm | Hurricane Paula *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *

updated at 11 a.m.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Sunny & 10-15 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Too cool for some of you? Probably just right for many.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny. Upper 60s to near 70. | Tonight: Increasing clouds. Late-night shower chance. Near 50 to mid-50s. | Tomorrow: Rainy & overcast. Upper 50s to low 60s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Rain tomorrow, and wind Friday into Saturday. That sums up the disruptive portion of the forecast for the next several days. Otherwise, we'll see plenty of sun and cooler temperatures than we've seen the past week or so, though fairly typical for mid-October. Let's get to the nitty-gritty details...

Today (Wednesday): High pressure should hold its ground long enough for a mostly sunny day as Thursday's storm starts to get organized to our west. We're substantially cooler than the past few days, thanks to the passage of yesterday's cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 and light winds from the northeast and east. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies become increasingly cloudy and a shower is possible overnight, especially west of town. The clouds should keep temperatures from dropping too far -- lows in the mid-50s (downtown) to near 50 (suburbs). Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Rain arrives from west to east during the early-to-mid morning, and falls moderate at times before tapering in the same direction during the mid-afternoon into early evening. Rainfall potential is around 0.5"-1". The rain and overcast skies halt highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and breezes pick up from the west later in the afternoon or by evening. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: The rain should be mostly done by around mid-evening, though a shower or two may linger after. Clearing skies work in overnight as winds become gusty from the west and lows drop to the 40s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Friday brings a partly sunny and quite windy end to the work week. Gusts probably over 30 mph add a chill to highs from near 60 to the mid-60s. Could see an isolated afternoon or evening shower. Friday night lows bottom in the 40s (suburbs) to near 50 (downtown). Confidence: Medium

Gusty breezes persist Saturday with similar highs -- near 60 to the mid-60s -- under partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows cool off to the 40s Saturday night. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday should continue to deliver plenty of sun, which coupled with lighter winds and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s should make for a great end to the weekend. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | October 13, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

I don't quite understand where tomorrow's rain is coming from. The storm is supposed to form to the northeast of us (seems likely to be a typical pattern this winter). That puts us on the drier S/SW side of the storm. To back that up, winds from the west are forecast, not from the east.

Posted by: eric654 | October 13, 2010 6:28 AM | Report abuse

@eric654

The storm should actually begin with upper-level energy coming from the west, which will then spawn low pressure forming along the Carolina coast and then moving up the coast.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | October 13, 2010 8:36 AM | Report abuse

Actually, this looks like a Miller type "B" scenario whereby a storm passing just to our south spawns a development just off the Atlantic coast; generally such storms intensify as they move up the coast. Most of our big coastal storms [if any!] this coming La Nina winter should be "Miller B" events. These storms are LESS likely than "Miller A" storms [the type we had several times last winter which move offshore northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico] to affect the Washington area, though any "coast hugger" can give us a good sideswipe.

Tomorrow's event will likely give us the effects of a Midwestern storm dissipating, as the "Miller B" system forms off the coast and moves northeastward...thus the possible increase in winds later tomorrow.

Right now Tom Skilling has the Midwestern thunderstorms just east of Chicago approaching Indianapolis but still well to our west. The system is moving rather rapidly and will cross the Ohio Valley overnight.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 13, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Bombo & others - do you have any plans that might get impacted by this incoming rain? Make sure to check Jason's latest post for timeline of the rain tomorrow. We won't get the worst of it, but a brief soaking for DC is in the cards!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | October 13, 2010 1:59 PM | Report abuse

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