Forecast: Warm Columbus Day before cooling
High temps drop 20 degrees by late week
(posted at 5 a.m., updated at 7:30 a.m.)
FORECAST IN DETAIL
Turn the clock back a week and it was dismally wet and cold. We just missed matching the record (56 in 1988) for the coldest October 4 on record at Reagan National (the high was 57). Today, it's about 30 degrees warmer and while the record of 90 should be safe, temps are going to take a ride well into the 80s. Tomorrow, though, a cooling trend begins and by Thursday, temperatures turn cooler than normal and it may get wet.
Today (Monday): The first thing you'll notice if you're out early is the absence of the cool, crisp air of days past. It's not exactly muggy, but flow from southwest means we start the day in the 50s to around 60 rather than the 40s to near 50. With the help of abundant afternoon sun, high temperatures reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Could it hit 90, allowing us to break the 90+ record (which we tied)? Unlikely...just a 15-20% chance. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: A cold front drops southward to near the Mason Dixon line, likely triggering showers and thunderstorms, but probably impacting locations mainly north of the metro area. Nonetheless, a few showers/storms could (30% chance) pass through the region late - especially in the northern suburbs. Outside any storms, it's partly cloudy and mild with lows 55-60. Confidence: Medium-High
Keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...
Tomorrow (Tuesday): The cold front continues its trek southward, pushing through the metro region. Showers and storms are possible, particularly from the morning hours through mid-afternoon. Temperatures are warm for one more day, with highs 75-80 under variably cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow Night: Skies clear and it turns cooler. Lows fall back into the upper 40s in the cooler suburbs to the low-to-mid 50s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High
Outstanding weather returns to the region Wednesday as cooler high pressure builds in. Highs are near 70, with Wednesday night's lows in the 40s to near 50 (downtown) under clear skies. Confidence: Medium-High
Clouds increase Thursday as high pressure retreats to the north. Rain is likely (60-70% chance) to develop as low pressure develops to the south, with highs 60-65. Confidence: Medium
Late Thursday into Friday is potentially stormy as low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic coast. Chilly (lows 45-50), wind-swept rain is likely Thursday night lasting into part of Friday. Some partial clearing is possible by the second half of Friday, but it's probably breezy and brisk, with highs near 60. Confidence: Low-Medium
The weekend begins on a cool and breezy note Saturday. Highs are probably in the vicinity of 60-65 under partly sunny skies. Winds relax Saturday night with chilly lows in the 40s. By Sunday, we should have a good deal of sunshine along with light winds and seasonable highs from 65-70. Confidence: Medium
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