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Posted at 12:50 PM ET, 10/26/2010

Midwest storm may bring severe weather to DC

By Jason Samenow

* Cooler after storm: Full Forecast | Historic Midwest storm *
* Upper Midwest radar | Ohio/Tennessee Valley radar | National radar *

midwest-storm-dc-102710.jpg
Surface map forecast showing the cold front associated with Midwest storm slicing through the metro region early tomorrow morning. This front could trigger some gusty early morning showers and storms.

As mentioned in my earlier post, the powerhouse Midwest storm is generating a major severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornado watches extend from Michigan to Mississippi. But NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicates the storm threat extends even east of there, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms reaching all the way into the D.C. metro region by late tonight.

So how significant is the risk?

spc-risk-102610.jpg
Risk for severe thunderstorms today thru Wed morning at 8 a.m. The threat of severe weather in the D.C. metro region is mainly late tonight into tomorrow. Source: Storm Prediction Center

The cold front running out ahead of the storm, responsible for the current severe outbreak, rumbles into West Virginia this evening. It should be accompanied by a strong squall line at that time.

The squall line may start to break apart somewhat as it crosses the mountains, loses the energy supplied by daytime heating, and interacts with somewhat weaker atmospheric dynamics over our region. Nonetheless, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is likely to move into western Virginia, western Maryland and the far western suburbs between about 9 p.m. and 2 a.m. This line of storms may produce strong, even damaging winds and heavy rain.

The line of showers and storms is most likely to impact the D.C. metro region - from west to eat - between about 2 and 7 a.m. Heavy rain and strong winds (gusts to 50 mph or so) are possible, particularly in the north and west suburbs.

spc-102710.jpg
Risk for severe thunderstorms Wed a.m. thru Thurs a.m. Source: Storm Prediction Center

As the front approaches and moves through the metro region, it's going to slow down, which may allow for a second round of showers and storms during Wednesday afternoon and evening - especially east of Washington. Some of these storms could also be strong, with a slight risk of damaging winds.

The bottom line is that the risk of severe weather is going to diminish as the front associated with this massive Midwest storm propagates eastward toward the mid-Atlantic, divorcing itself from its parent storm center - way back in central Ontario. Nonetheless, we should be aware of two windows for possibly active weather here: in the predawn hours Wednesday morning and late Wednesday afternoon.

By Jason Samenow  | October 26, 2010; 12:50 PM ET
Categories:  Thunderstorms  
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Comments

Fantastic. My house is still not completely repaired from the August 12 storm, which toppled a massive tree onto our house, totaled the roof, and damaged four rooms. We're still living in the basement! Do I seriously need to worry about more trees coming down tonight onto my new roof? Are the winds from this storm on par with the August 12 storm? Is the weather ever going to calm down this year?

Posted by: lmd217 | October 26, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Oh my. A possibility of a repeat of our freak morning rush-hour storm in August?

Posted by: MKoehl | October 26, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

@lmd217 and @MKoehl

I'm not expecting a repeat of the early morning August storm. We had more dynamics/instability then. But some spots - particularly west/northwest of metro region - could see some pretty gusty winds.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | October 26, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Hmm... Fairfax is definetly west... we'll see! No roof to worry about here as I'm on the bottom floor..

Posted by: MKoehl | October 26, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

@lmd217, I hope nothing additional happens with your home.

Posted by: MKoehl | October 26, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

I thought there was supposed to be more sun than yesterday and temps in the upper 70s! Really nasty out, upper 60s, very high dewpoints, howling south wind, relentless overcast.

Posted by: HenryFPotter | October 26, 2010 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Howling winds, HarryFPotter? My guess: You ain't seen nuthin' yet. The storm looks plenty big enough to impact this area. NWS moved wind advisories eastward in W.Va. a couple of hours ago and told the Eastern Panhandle to expect advisories also.

Yes, I am obsessed with wind.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | October 26, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Tornado Watches are propogating east. Into WV now...we could get in the mix in the next several hours. All time low pressure has been recorded in MN. Much lower than the 1975 storm that brought down the Edmund Fitzgerald. 959 mb and dropping around the Duluth area.

Posted by: DullesARC | October 26, 2010 2:07 PM | Report abuse

Wind will blow a lot leaves off the trees in the areas W of DC. Drove from Spotsy. 2 Blacksburg 4 the Tech -Duke game on Sat. & the colors were very dull. Probably the blandest colors in many yrs. The hot dry weather really hurt the colors this season.

Posted by: VaTechBob | October 26, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Eeek:

FINALLY...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. HERE...LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. DETAILS IN THIS SCENARIO REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE NO UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MADE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/26/2010

Posted by: tinkerbelle | October 26, 2010 2:35 PM | Report abuse

I've got to drive from DC to Richmond Wednesday morning, leaving DC at 5 AM. How far south is this weather expected to be severe?

Posted by: OfficePhone | October 26, 2010 3:39 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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