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Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010

Winter outlook aftershock: Bastardi knocks NOAA

By Jason Samenow

Accuweather forecaster claims NOAA "following" his ideas

10 p.m. update: Interestingly, Bastardi's earlier tweets (given below) about NOAA's outlook have been removed from his Twitter feed. He posted a new tweet stating "Got the earlier NOAA references out.. Render to Caesar what is Caesar, right? Their overall idea not much different from ours."

From 9:15 a.m. Less than a day after NOAA's National Weather Service and AccuWeather simultaneously released their winter outlooks, AccuWeather chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi has publicly criticized NOAA for "following" and "not leading" with its predictions. On his Twitter feed this morning, Bastardi also insinuated NOAA may have taken some its winter outlook ideas from him/AccuWeather.

Keep reading for Bastardi's Tweets and NOAA's reaction...

Here are excerpts from Bastardi's Twitter tirade from around 7:30 a.m.Friday (today):

"Keep in mind folks, my forecast was released for the winter back in August. Like the hurricane forecast, NOAA is following, not leading.

"I am simply saying their idea looks like what was issued by me on publicly in August. Hurricanes, in Feb (16-18)"

"There is a NEED for the private sector in the weather.. and in everything else for that matter"

"I am not anti NOAA, I am pro truth, and the truth is that their ideas are following here. Okay off the high horse.. for now"

NOAA rejected Bastardi's suggestions. Chris Vaccaro, NOAA's Acting Director of Media Relations, provided the Capital Weather Gang (CWG) with the following reaction:

"NOAA issues seasonal forecasts that extend one year into the future. The first forecast for winter 2010/11 was issued in November 2009. Our forecast (which is updated monthly) hasn't changed significantly since June, when it became clear that La Nina would play a large role in shaping the winter 2010/11."

Hot and cold reactions to outlooks from CWG readers

There were a ton of reactions to the news that neither AccuWeather nor NOAA is expecting high odds of a snowy winter in the D.C. metro region. Readers sounded off in both the comment area of the Capital Weather Gang blog on the outlook and on CWG's Twitter feed. Here are some highlights:

From Twitter:

@econ_consultant: Knew there would be little snow the minute I bought that snowblower and generator in March!

@sjtetreault: Thank GOD.

@boxhill, @FunnyBunnyLarue, @MalnurturedSnay, @cBonics, @VTjawo: [Different variations of] BOO!

@make_lemons: Phew

@chiknpotpie: Sads. :(

@donkimsays: Way to jynx it!

From CWG Blog:

@Brandelina: Oh darn, I was so hoping for a good federal shutdown snowstorm. I love snow!

@Paaa: To all those of you who want snow this winter, I say "Move to Canada."

@mkarns: Personally, I hope for a moderate amount of snow, though not nearly as much as last year. I also hope this isn't like 2007-08 when there was almost nothing.

@grobinette: That is just the opposite of what the Farmers Almanac is predicting.

@Bombo47jea: Still waiting on the AUTHORITATIVE winter outlook for this area... the CWG outlook!

CWG's winter outlook will be issued around the November 1.

By Jason Samenow  | October 22, 2010; 10:00 PM ET
Categories:  Capital Weather Gang, Government, Media, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Frost Advisory tonight, north and west
Next: UnitedCast: A fine home finale


Wow - can't two different weather outlets examine the same data and INDEPENDENTLY come up with the same conclusion?

Posted by: MKoehl | October 22, 2010 9:22 AM | Report abuse

Seriously ? NOAA climate scientists .. great minds who do this for a living, leaders in the field ... do NOT need Bastardi's help. Other way around. Give me a break.

greg postel

Posted by: gregpostel | October 22, 2010 9:25 AM | Report abuse

Bastardi makes me think of the phase, "Shout loud, weak point."

Posted by: MKoehl | October 22, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

I'll take Bastardi over NOAA any day. Proven track record, leaves the politics out of it.

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | October 22, 2010 9:57 AM | Report abuse

Weak sauce. There is science underlying this. Maybe they are both right. He doesn't get bonus points for being right first. Can't spell Bastardi without...

Posted by: oldtimehockey | October 22, 2010 10:27 AM | Report abuse

As an employee of NWS I can tell you that without us Bastardi would be lost in the bushes. Accuweather gets all of our data on a direct line to them for use in all forecasting that thy do. Also, As the person from NOAA said our forecasts go out a year in advance for multiple months in each forecast. We just don't release a press release until closer to the time period in question. Joe and Accuweather have been pulling this for years and it is getting tired. It became a big issue that was proven false after Katrina and it continues to this day. This does NOT constitute a NWS line but merely my own.

Posted by: spartyinmd | October 22, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

Joe Bastardi...Big mouth, Bigger ego, Biggest jerk. He acts like NOAA waited for 'his' forecast to see which way to jump. Their release schedule is posted on their website, all Basta-boy has to do is issue one day before and claim they are "following him"! In addition they post a year worth of forecasts updated every month and with La Nina renascent they have been showing warmer in the southern U.S. for a while. What a joke that guy is.

Posted by: dsmflood_guy | October 22, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

hahaha...joe bastardi's complaint about the NWS "following" his prediction crqcks me up. remeinds me a bumper sticker i had in college:

who are the grateful dead, and why do they keep following me?

i'm teaching tennis to kids aged 8-14 this afternoon and was wondering if/hoping the wind would die i checked in here. these kids don't need any added degree of difficulty. anyway, doesn't look like the wind is dying down 'til this evening though...

sorry i missed the winter outlook. here's hoping for a repeat of last winter....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | October 22, 2010 10:53 AM | Report abuse

Every year I wonder more and more: Why does Bastardi have such a following?

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | October 22, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

Does anyone give any credence to AccuWeather forecasts? They change every five minutes. I'm glad I don't have cable; lessens my exposure to those folks. They're like a reality show.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | October 22, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Hi spartyinmd

You're absolutely right. It's unfortunate that some private meteorological industries have completley divorced themselves from the hands that fed (and feed) them. The science done at NOAA has made many of these folks (who do NONE of their own) into who they are today. Where would they be without the things they learned from the classes and the books and the peer-reviewed literature? Many of these guys should thank our atmospheric scientists daily for the gifts they've been given. We all stand on the shoulders of those before us. And it's too damn bad some people forget that.

greg postel

Posted by: gregpostel | October 22, 2010 11:05 AM | Report abuse

btw, i see that i didn't miss the CWG winter outlook. can't wait.

the NWS one, following bastardi, seems to be predicting average temps and precip for the dc area. seems funny to me that that would generate much happiness or angst. seems to me like if temps are average, all that precip will be rain....dag nabbit. i guess it's all about the timing - and frankly, i've got no problem with 40 or 50 degree temps in the winter when it's not precipitating. it's the 40 or 32 degree days with that cold yucky rain instead of beautiful white snow that drive me crazy.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | October 22, 2010 11:12 AM | Report abuse

The statements by JB are too funny here. Clearly the leading driver of the longer term weather pattern during this past summer, this fall, and through the upcoming winter was/is/will be one of the strongest La Nina's on record. It is not like JB knows that and NOAA does not! Guess what?? Every credible winter forecast that is issued this year, will look very similar to all other forecasts. This is because there is one lead variable that is off the charts and will clear drive a certain pattern this winter, on average. Too funny!

Posted by: cshabbott | October 22, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Rabble, rabble, rabble!
Silly forecasters. Makes me want to turn them all off and just go look out the nearest window.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | October 22, 2010 11:36 AM | Report abuse

@Walter, we await photos of your first Winter 2010-11 snow sculpture and I'm hoping like the dickens it will be a great white whale.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | October 22, 2010 1:19 PM | Report abuse

First of November??? Seems rather late--and I thought I had heard "mid-October" some time around or just after Labor Day.

Anyway, the Gruber Almanac "Conjecturer's Column" is hinting at another cold winter...citing the volcanic eruptions in Iceland and elsewhere earlier this year. But it could involve far less moisture in 2010/2011 than we had to work with last winter.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 22, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

hi jerry,
thanks...i'm waiting too. the leaves turning redskins colors always turns my mind to winter. eagerly anticipating our dec 5 storm....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | October 22, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

When Rick Santorum was a Senator from Pennsylvania he pushed AccuWeather as a "private" replacement for NOAA. Pimping for State College and jobs in Pennsy. Bastardi is a jerk who hitched his wagon to a failed leader. Get over it Joe and find a real job where you develop your own data and not have the dreaded "government" provide it to you to analyze. Sort of the antithesis of the "truth" you are pushing.

Posted by: griffin1108 | October 22, 2010 5:13 PM | Report abuse

Bastardi's behavior is the kind I would expect from an eighth grader who needs constant approval and attention. Honestly, does this guy have such a desperate need for self gratification that he has to keep stepping on NOAA just to get it? The data he is using to compose his forecast comes directly from NOAA at no cost. To this I say to Mr. Bastardi, "don't bite the hand that feeds you". Put away the darts and swallow your pride.

Posted by: jasminkev | October 22, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

I'm sorry, but why are we even entertaining this conversation?

Posted by: bodyiq | October 24, 2010 12:41 AM | Report abuse

Wow....just shockingly bad behavior on Accuweather's part.CWG - thank you for publicizing Bastardi's attack (he is so appropriately named!)... I will now be deleting Accuweather from my bookmarks, and will not be giving their forecasts any of my attention, no matter where they show up. Capital Weather Gang and NOAA now take its place!

Posted by: NM1964 | October 24, 2010 10:34 PM | Report abuse

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