PM Update: Clouds increase tonight, not as cold

After a few days with well below average temperatures, today's return to nearer normal was a nice respite for those wanting to put off the start of winter. Highs mainly reached near 50 and into the lower 50s, and they'll be dropping back again shortly as the sun sets. Our transition from fair weather to stormy weather is underway though. Some increase in clouds is already beginning, and more on the way. Rain follows tomorrow.

By Ian Livingston | November 29, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (0)

Introducing the Snow Potential Index

We know a lot of Capital Weather Gang readers are snow lovers, so starting tomorrow (November 30) and continuing into March, we'll publish a daily index of the snow potential over the next seven days. For brevity, we'll refer to it as the SPI.

By Jason Samenow | November 29, 2010; 2:15 PM ET | Comments (6)

A look into early December: cold likely

The pattern early in December definitely is trending towards a colder than normal pattern. The picture is a murkier in terms of our chances of seeing an early December snow but the odds of getting snow appear to be increasing.

By Wes Junker | November 29, 2010; 10:30 AM ET | Comments (9)

Forecast: Wild week - Sun, storms & winter's return

The weather word of the week is volatility as a midweek front brings big, abrupt changes. Today marks the calm before the storm and even tomorrow is relatively tranquil before the front unleashes its fury Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavy rain, gusty winds and possible thunder. Behind the front, it turns much colder for the second half of the week.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Jason Samenow | November 29, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (16)

Forecast: Bright but chilly, without the wind

The bright side to today's continued chilly weather, beyond the sunny skies? Yesterday's whipping winds are a thing of the past. Temperatures do edge higher to start the work week before a potentially soaking rain for the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Brian Jackson | November 28, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (16)

Forecast: A taste of winter in late November

Even though our average temperatures have been getting cooler for some time now, and we're just days off the start of meteorological winter, this is our first powerful Arctic air mass of the season. Thankfully, our normal (at least of late) pattern featuring dry weekends continues today and tomorrow. After we get through today, winds lessen and we see at least a brief warming trend into early next week. Oh, there's some rain on the horizon too.

By Ian Livingston | November 27, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (10)

SkinsCast: Kinda cool, but this is footbal weather

* Our Full Forecast | Weather Wall | Redskins Insider * Redskins vs. VikingsSunday, 1:00 p.m., FedEx Field Kickoff2-Min WarningWeatherChance of Precip.44F46FSunny1%You'll want a jacket and other cool-weather gear for tailgaiting and game watching, but with light winds and plenty of sun, it could be much worse. In many locations,...

By Ian Livingston | November 27, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (0)

PM Update: Windy, becoming cold

Southerly breezes overnight pushed temperatures all the way to near 60 this morning, but showers and an Arctic front have knocked temperatures down into the low 50s this afternoon. By tonight, the combination of gusty winds from the northwest and falling temps will make it fell downright wintry.

CWG's Detailed Forecast

By Jason Samenow | November 26, 2010; 3:15 PM ET | Comments (7)

Thanksgiving ice coats western Maryland

As a warm front pushed over a shallow wedge of cold air yesterday morning, a wintry mix of precipitation fell in central and western Maryland as well as northwest Virginia where temperatures hovered near freezing.

By Jason Samenow | November 26, 2010; 11:00 AM ET | Comments (7)

Forecast: Showers start Black Friday, then brisk

I know shopping in the rain sounds like a pain, but showers should be out by midday and they won't be terribly heavy to begin with. Then we deal with afternoon breezes and falling temperatures, which I know aren't fun either. So dress in layers if shopping all day and be prepared for changing weather. After this Arctic cold front passes through, it stays windy through at least Saturday night. On the plus side, we remain clear this weekend. Though, temperatures remain in the below average 40s. Hope you can try to get out and about to work off that turkey!

By Camden Walker | November 26, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (12)

Forecast: Moist Turkey day, gray Friday

The trip over the hills and through the woods could be a little slick but I am betting that the afternoon clouds part, allowing you touch footballers to get out there! The real cold front crashes the party on Friday morning. Winds crank up and it cools down Friday night. That's a fair trade for sunny and dry weather through Monday.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By David Streit | November 25, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (5)

PM Update: Showers late, chance of sleet N & W

Despite lots of sunshine, daytime highs in the 40s to near 50 along with a brisk wind from the northwest have made it feel fairly winter like out there today. Actual highs for the day happened around midnight most spots, and temperatures this afternoon have only moved stubbornly slowly upward off overnight lows. We're looking at mostly worry-free weather the rest of today for last-minute travelers, but once we get toward midnight the risk for showers and perhaps some sleet moves into the picture.

By Ian Livingston | November 24, 2010; 3:15 PM ET | Comments (6)

Weather forecast for royal wedding now, seriously?

The international community is buzzing about the upcoming nuptials of Prince William and Kate Middleton slated for April 29, 2011 in London. But will all the pomp and circumstance be dulled by dreary clouds and dampness or radiate under brilliant sunshine and warmth?

By Jason Samenow | November 24, 2010; 2:00 PM ET | Comments (7)

Howard Bernstein & Topper Shutt winter outlook

The start of meteorological winter (December 1) is just one week away and it appears the last of the region's winter outlooks has been released. Like the ones that came before it, the outlook of Howard Bernstein and Topper Shutt of WUSA-TV9 follows the tired format of recapping last winter with all sorts of dramatic snow B-roll, talking about what La Nina is, and concluding by predicting less snow.

By Jason Samenow | November 24, 2010; 12:30 PM ET | Comments (5)

Arctic dust storms: really?

When one thinks of dust storms, I suspect the mental images that appear include the Dust Bowl of the 1930s in the U.S., West African dust blowing over the Atlantic, and the desert environments of the Middle East, Australia, and China. But I doubt Alaskan glaciers come to mind. Consider also the occurrence of glacial related dust storms in Iceland and a possible connection to global warming, and head-scratching might be the principle reaction.

By Steve Tracton | November 24, 2010; 10:30 AM ET | Comments (4)

Forecast: A colder, quiet day before Thanksgiving

For all the extreme weather affecting the West and into the Central U.S., conditions in the D.C. area will be about as quiet as can be for the big travel day before Thanksgiving. Some showers may threaten for Thanksgiving Day itself here in the D.C. area and on Black Friday too, but neither look to be a washout.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Dan Stillman | November 24, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (9)

Doug Hill & Doug Kammerer winter outlooks

We published our winter outlook several weeks ago, predicting modestly above average temperatures and around average snowfall. Since then, a number of television forecasters have released their outlooks. The latest two, issued yesterday, come courtesy chief meteorologists Doug Hill at ABC7 and Doug Kammerer at NBC4. The one thing all of these outlooks have in common is that none of them are predicting above average snow in the mid-Atlantic region. Want a winter prediction for above average snow in this region? Check the Old Farmer's Alamanac.

By Jason Samenow | November 23, 2010; 7:30 PM ET | Comments (2)

PM Update: Showers to end, becoming clear & cool

Showers associated with a cold front moving through the region this afternoon have interrupted an unseasonably mild day. On winds from the south, temperatures had ascended all the way into the upper 60s (69 at DCA). The showers should cutoff by dark as cooler air gradually trickles into the region.

By Jason Samenow | November 23, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (6)

Crazy, extreme weather leads up to Thanksgiving

The combination of a massive Arctic outbreak out West, a warm surge in the East and powerful storm in the transition zone is wreaking weather havoc as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. Even Alaska is contending with unusual weather, as unseasonably mild air bumps up to the Arctic circle, bringing widespread rain and ice rather than the customary snow.

By Jason Samenow | November 23, 2010; 1:30 PM ET | Comments (4)

Forecasting "turkeys": predictions gone awry

Recently, I noticed that a Florida senior center was planning a presentation entitled "Tremendous 'Turkeys' of History." Included were: Fulton's steam engine, initially deemed a folly; Disney's Snow White, considered a certain flop when (and if) it reached the theaters; and, of course, Ford's Edsel, anticipated as the "car of the future," but which turned out to be the greatest design disaster in automotive history, although some considered it a car ahead of its time. What about U.S. weather forecasting "turkeys?" We can all think of some, but what were some of the most conspicuous since the founding of the Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service (NWS), in 1870? I did some research (1) and, because it's now almost winter, am limiting the cases to blown, or almost blown, snow forecasts, which usually leave an indelible mark on our collective memories.

By Don Lipman | November 23, 2010; 10:30 AM ET | Comments (15)

Forecast: Warmer today, chance of PM showers

Changeable November weather continues to complicate our holiday weather picture. If you have travel plans west of here, you may run into weather-related delays tomorrow as a storm system affects the Midwest. That storm reaches our region by Thanksgiving in the form of a warm front (rain) and then on Black Friday in the form of a cold front (more rain).

By Matt Rogers | November 23, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (9)

Climate Central update on La Nina, October temps

Take a look at this very well-produced update on La Nina and October temperatures from Climate Central, a nonprofit, collaborative group of scientists and communicators whose mission is "to create a bridge between the scientific community and the public, providing clear, honest, nonpartisan, and up-to-date information to help people make sound decisions about climate and energy."

By Jason Samenow | November 22, 2010; 7:00 PM ET | Comments (1)

PM Update: Staying mild through tomorrow

After some dense fog and a dew-filled start to the day, clouds broke for a pretty glorious one for this time of year. Highs have reached near 60 and into the low 60s across the area as a south wind pumps in warmer and more "humid" air. Enjoy the warmth the rest of today and tomorrow, because cooler air is scheduled to invade as we get to Thanksgiving and beyond.

By Ian Livingston | November 22, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (3)

Cold blast over interior West to fizzle East

The early season cold snap diving into the Rockies and western Great Plains is stunning. By Wednesday, large portions of that region will experience lows below zero and highs in the single digits.

By Jason Samenow | November 22, 2010; 2:15 PM ET | Comments (8)

A year after climategate, applying lessons learned

A year ago at this time, while policymakers and journalists (including myself) were gearing up for the Copenhagen Climate Summit, a story began percolating in the blogosphere about a voluminous trove of stolen emails sent between prominent climate scientists. The emails purportedly contained evidence that climate scientists had fudged temperature data and interfered in reviews of studies that did not adhere to mainstream views of manmade climate change. As numerous investigations have found, the scientists involved in the emails did not commit scientific fraud, and the emails' scientific significance was negligible.

By Andrew Freedman | November 22, 2010; 10:15 AM ET | Comments (40)

Forecast: Mild Monday, late week cooling

Two cold fronts push through the region this week, knocking temperatures down in two steps. The first front comes in tomorrow afternoon, dropping temperatures from above average Monday and Tuesday to average by Wednesday. The second front arrives Thanksgiving, dropping temperatures to below average levels Black Friday though the weekend. With each front, we'll run the risk of showers.

By Jason Samenow | November 22, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (12)

Forecast: Seasonable chill makes brief return

We cool off today a good 10 degrees from yesterday's fabulous mid-60s, though few should be surprised by highs in the 50s as we move into the last part of November. The seasonable chill combined with partly sunny skies make for nearly perfect leaf-raking conditions, if you're fortunate (unfortunate?) enough to have a lawn anyway. We luck out with a brief early-week warm spell, before a duo of cold fronts bring rain chances and then much cooler weather in time for the holiday.

By Brian Jackson | November 21, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (1)

Forecast: Another dry weekend for the area

So far, my run as a Saturday forecaster has been fairly simple in the nearer term. This is my third forecast for a dry weekend and the 7th dry weekend in a row for the area. We're on a bit of a seesaw ride the next few days though. It's fairly mild -- if also breezy -- today, then cooler tomorrow. We go back up to more mild temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, then back down again... Perhaps way down into the holiday period.

By Ian Livingston | November 20, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (10)

Thanksgiving outlook with the Weather Gang lab

Today I hosted the first edition of the new live chat video program "Weather Gang Lab." Weather Gang Lab provides an in-depth look at the big weather story of the week with original analysis. It will tend to focus on D.C. area weather stories but may sometimes address weather making news elsewhere. The final segment of the program will address user questions. The program will run each week, probably on Thursday afternoon.

By Jason Samenow | November 19, 2010; 7:00 PM ET | Comments (20)

PM Update: Delightful sunshine thru weekend

A cool airmass settled over the region today, but abundant sunshine took away the bite, pushing afternoon temperatures into the low-to-mid 50s. A clear, calm, and cold night is ahead, so grab your jacket for the commute home and any evening plans.

CWG's Full PM Update

By Jason Samenow | November 19, 2010; 3:15 PM ET | Comments (3)

Is D.C.'s planned flood wall enough?

As reported recently in the Washington Post, a flood control plan is in the works to protect the Washington Mall and large sections of downtown DC by constructing large earthen berms and eight-foot high aluminum panels just west of the Mall near the Washington Monument (see enlarged map). But will this project alone offer anything close to a guarantee that DC's flood problems will become something of the past? No way!

By Steve Tracton | November 19, 2010; 12:45 PM ET | Comments (5)

Waiting for the first official D.C. freeze...

This has been a pretty pleasant November, though there have been periods of both well above and well below average temperatures. While a good portion of the area has seen a freeze at this point (i.e., Dulles as low as 28 on the 12th, with 12 days in November at or below freezing), National Airport (DCA) still has not. Computer guidance available right now seems to indicate there is not a freeze coming to DCA in the immediate future. How odd is it that we have not seen it yet? Not that odd, actually.

By Ian Livingston | November 19, 2010; 10:00 AM ET | Comments (9)

Forecast: Cool and sunny today, warmer coming

We should have a beautiful Friday and weekend -- albeit chilly from time to time. Temperatures and breezes notwithstanding, looks like a good opportunity to enjoy some sunshine, go for a run, or any myriad of outdoor activities. Just be sure to dress in layers, especially early or late, because the sun will be the main factor keeping you warm. By early next week, our slow upward trend in temperatures shows results. However clouds become an issue on Monday, and by Tuesday we may end our fair weather completely.

By Camden Walker | November 19, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (9)

Tornado touched down in Baltimore Tues. night

The National Weather Service in Sterling has confirmed a tornado carved a 0.4 mile path through in northeast Baltimore (Hamilton) and Parkville in Baltimore County Tuesday night (or early Wednesday morning). The twister, linked to three minor injuries, grew to a maximum width of 250 yards wide and packed peak winds of around 100 mph. The storm was classified as category one on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) tornado scale, which ranges from zero to five.

By Jason Samenow | November 18, 2010; 7:30 PM ET | Comments (5)

PM Update: Clearing tonight, sunshine upcoming

A weak disturbance passing through the region has made for a cloudy afternoon. Temperatures have risen to their seasonal norms in the mid-to-upper 50s. Cloud cover stays with us through the evening commute, and a sprinkle or shower can't entirely be ruled out - especially west of the District.

By Jason Samenow | November 18, 2010; 3:15 PM ET | Comments (1)

Hurricane season in 2010 making history

Long-range forecasts made last spring for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season nearly unanimously predicted lots of storms. Though they generally underforecast how many we would actually observe, they were right it would be an active season. In remarkable fashion, the ocean-atmosphere interplay throughout the tropics in 2010 allowed for a hyper-production of cyclones rarely matched in modern times. Only 2 seasons since 1944 recorded more named storms: 1995 (19) and 2005 (28).

By Greg Postel | November 18, 2010; 12:50 PM ET | Comments (22)

Good shopping weather? Retailers sure hope so.

As the 2010 holiday shopping season officially gets underway the Friday after Thanksgiving, many retailers are hoping they won't see a repeat of a lasting image from last year's holiday season -- parking lots covered with as much as (or more than) two feet of snow, instead of teeming with cars and hungry holiday shoppers.

By Dan Stillman | November 18, 2010; 10:30 AM ET | Comments (5)

Forecast: Tranquil weather pattern returns

Another beautiful stretch of weather will have us forgetting all that blowing and crashing of the past day in short order. The mild, dry conditions allow all of you well-prepared cooks to get in those grocery runs for next week's Thanksgiving feasts. My only question is will downtown DC, including Reagan National, ever hit the freezing mark?

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By David Streit | November 18, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (11)

PM Update: Gusty winds to subside

Compared to last night, when winds reportedly gusted as high as 89 mph in D.C., today has been relatively calmer, even with continued strong winds reaching advisory-level criteria. Temperatures reaching near 60 and into the low 60 have been pretty pleasant as well. The down side as I see it? Those leaves still on the trees are taking a beating...

By Ian Livingston | November 17, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (3)

A look ahead toward Thanksgiving and beyond

You may have noticed chatter about potential for wintry weather around or just after Thanksgiving at AccuWeather and on the Baltimore Sun's weather blog. It's too early to be speculating about forecast details more than a week away, but we can talk about how the large scale weather patterns are evolving and what kind of weather they might support.

By Wes Junker | November 17, 2010; 12:50 PM ET | Comments (25)

Fierce midnight storms of Nov. 17: what happened?

During the summer months, middle of the night severe thunderstorms are not uncommon even if startling. But we seldom witness an intense squall line with damaging winds tear through the heart of the metro region after midnight in mid-November. So how did this occur last night? The intensity of the thunderstorm outbreak can be traced to the convergence of a number of atmospheric ingredients.

By Jason Samenow | November 17, 2010; 11:45 AM ET | Comments (18)

Forecast: Cool & calm after Wednesday winds

The somewhat active weather continues today, with gusty winds the main story, after what had been a pretty long stretch of ho-hum, nothing-to-see-here weather (the Monday night-Tuesday rain was our first measurable rain since Nov. 5). By tomorrow, however, the weather settles down once again.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast, Daily Digit & More

By Dan Stillman | November 17, 2010; 11:30 AM ET | Comments (22)

Severe thunderstorms departing metro region

Storms down trees, produce winds to 60 mph (originally posted with storm warnings at 12:45 a.m, updated at 1:40 a.m.) * Severe thunderstorms warnings that had been in effect are now canceled * 1:40 a.m. update: The worst of the storms are over as they have already reached the Chesapeake...

By Jason Samenow | November 17, 2010; 1:40 AM ET | Comments (9)

PM Update: Rain to relent late tonight

A moisture-laden southern storm has kept the rain coming since last night. The start of the rain coincided with the Eagles taking a 35-0 lead over the Redskins moments into the second quarter of last night's game debacle. Reagan National has reported light rain for 16 straight hours. Rainfall amounts have generally been between one-third and two-thirds of an inch, with some higher amounts to west and southwest. Rain will continue through the evening commute so allow extra time.

By Jason Samenow | November 16, 2010; 10:45 PM ET | Comments (16)

Ellen DeGeneres mocks TV weather reporting

Last Thursday, Ellen Generes' monolog featured a familiar theme: the T.V. weather report. Her commentary, which laments the dumbing down of weather reporting, is both humorous and harsh. For example, she quips: "The weather reports treats us like we're idiots all the time. There's a big smiley face on the sun. . . . It's like we're first graders..."

By Jason Samenow | November 16, 2010; 1:45 PM ET | Comments (1)

Omaha baseball team re-named "Storm Chasers"

Omaha baseball team re-named "Storm Chasers"

By Jason Samenow | November 16, 2010; 11:45 AM ET | Comments (8)

"Snowmageddon": one of 2010's top words

"Snowmageddon", the word used to describe the historic snowstorm that crippled the mid-Atlantic last February 4-5 has been named on the Global Language Monitor's (GLM) "top words of 2010". The first use of the term in the context of last February's storm can be traced to the Capital Weather Gang.

By Jason Samenow | November 16, 2010; 10:20 AM ET | Comments (8)

Forecast: A slick and sloppy rainy day

A big low pressure system coming from the Deep South delivers major moisture to our area through tonight. I don't think the winds get too crazy tomorrow to strip our foliage, but they should be noticeably breezy behind the storm. And then its back to dry weather.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast, Daily Digit & More

By Matt Rogers | November 16, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (13)

PM Update: Today's clouds bring rain later

The brilliant weather of the past few days has ended, and today was pretty cloudy on the whole. Still, temperatures rising to near 60 are not too bad for this time of year. Next up is some rain, which begins to threaten later this evening before lasting through tomorrow. We're probably not looking at major rain amounts, but enough to make the day pretty soggy.

By Ian Livingston | November 15, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (1)

Early season snowstorm pastes Minneapolis

The biggest pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm in nearly 20 years buried the Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul) with 6-10 inches of snow over the weekend (most of the snow fell Saturday).

By Jason Samenow | November 15, 2010; 1:30 PM ET | Comments (1)

WSJ editorial board spins climate science, again

In a segment of the WSJ "Opinion Journal" web video program, editorial writer Anne Jolis criticizes the AGU's innocuous effort for selectively excluding three climate skeptics: Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, and John R. Christy. Unfortunately, spouting ridiculous climate science conspiracy theories is nothing new for the WSJ editorial board, which is legendary within the climate science community for distorting the vast body of evidence pointing to the role of human activities in helping to drive the recent increase in global temperatures.

By Andrew Freedman | November 15, 2010; 10:30 AM ET | Comments (20)

Forecast: Sunny streak ends today

For an entire week, we enjoyed beautiful sunshine and highs in the low 60s or better. So when clouds move in today and especially tonight, we can pay our respects as it was a really good run. Rain chances kick in as tonight wears on and continue through early Wednesday. By Thursday, we begin another dry stretch but temps are shade cooler - this time mainly in the 50s - which is just about average.

By Jason Samenow | November 15, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (6)

SkinsCast: Cloudy, chance of light rain

The chance of showers, mainly light, increases as the game goes on -- 40% chance during the first half and 60% for the 2nd half. Temps are reasonably comfortable, in the low-to-mid 50s.

By Jason Samenow | November 15, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (1)

Forecast: We squeak out one more sunny day

We'll have two more days to enjoy this pleasant weather before shower chances interrupt our flow as we head into Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon and night may very well bring some decent rains. But the inclement weather is short-lived with sunshine returning during the day Wednesday.

By Brian Jackson | November 14, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (11)

Forecast: About as nice as November gets

I love snow and winter holds a special place because of it, but I could easily live with days like this all year (our traffic might take a beating though). Chilled mornings, mixed with near-peak color, are a good reminder of the season, and we probably need some reminders during the relatively warm midday sun. Soak it up today and tomorrow, because even though it's our 6th dry weekend in a row, darker and stormier skies can't be that far off.

By Ian Livingston | November 13, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (9)

PM Update: Staying sunny, inching warmer

After highs stuck at either 63 or 64 the past four days at Reagan National Airport (DCA), we finally broke through resistance and touched 65 (at least) today. Though the afternoon was mild, another chilly evening is in store. So jackets recommended for the commute home...

By Jason Samenow | November 12, 2010; 5:40 PM ET | Comments (9)

Jews, Muslims, Christians pray for rain in West Bank

A five year drought motivated a rare interfaith prayer service yesterday in Al-Walajah, Israel, a village between Jerusalem and Bethlehem. The Media Line - a news service in the Middle East - set the context:

The rainy season should have begun over a month ago, but the skies remain blue on this November afternoon. In a land that has seen much bloodshed and no few miracles, these devout believe that now more than ever is the time for divine intervention.

By Jason Samenow | November 12, 2010; 2:15 PM ET | Comments (7)

Discovery of the greenhouse effect: a short history

Whether you are a die-hard denier of anthropogenic global warming, believe unequivocally in catastrophic human-caused global warming, or lie skeptically somewhere between these "wing nuts", there is (at least) one critically relevant common denominator: the greenhouse effect. Yet, I'll bet wherever you stand on the subject of global warming a vast majority believe the greenhouse effect is an invention of the 20th century. Not so!

By Steve Tracton | November 12, 2010; 12:45 PM ET | Comments (9)

Weatherman tosses microphone to polar bears

Watch Canadian weatherman Tom Brown - when feeding pumpkins to polar bears for an on-air report - accidentally pitch his microphone in the process. It doesn't appear the polar bears tried to eat the mic...

By Jason Samenow | November 12, 2010; 10:45 AM ET | Comments (3)

Forecast: More blue sky and enjoyable 60s

Blue skies, very little breeze, and dry conditions through at least Sunday. What a weekend we have in store! With our average temperatures in D.C. at 59F/41F (hi/low), I think you will be pleased at this mostly above-average forecast. Get outside. Enjoy the ever-shortening daylight that shines bright into Sunday. Have you like this week's broken record of sunshine and 60s?

By Camden Walker | November 12, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (13)

On this day in 1987: Unpredicted. Paralyzing. Snow.

If you lived in the metro region in November of 1987, you almost certainly remember the Veteran's Day snowstorm.

By Jason Samenow | November 11, 2010; 7:00 PM ET | Comments (21)

PM Update: Low 60s again and again and ...

Sometimes the unremarkable is remarkable. Here are the highs at DCA for the last three days: 64, 63, 64. Today's high isn't in the books yet, but we've at least reached 61. Tomorrow's forecast? You guessed it -- highs in the low 60s.

By Jason Samenow | November 11, 2010; 3:20 PM ET | Comments (4)

A touch of color at the Capitol

Despite predictions that a hot, dry summer might diminish our colorful fall foliage, the trees in our area seemed to respond to recent rain and have put on a nice show color during the past few weeks.

By Kevin Ambrose | November 11, 2010; 1:45 PM ET | Comments (1)

A detailed look at this winter's biggest players

The pattern has flipped this year to a strong La Nina with stronger than normal easterly trade winds causing upwelling and colder than normal sea surface temperatures across the east and central Pacific. These conditions are expected to continue through the winter. On the other hand, the phase of the NAO - a major factor in our snow potential - is a much bigger wild card. In CWG's winter outlook, we provided an overview of the different factors leading to our projection for more or less average snow and temperatures this winter. But let's take a deeper look at how this moderate-to-strong La Nina may influence the evolution of this winter's weather and consider the curve balls the NAO might throw...

By Wes Junker | November 11, 2010; 10:00 AM ET | Comments (18)

Forecast: High pressure spells carefree weather

I have to admit that while this weather is wonderful, what is there to write about? I am sure it will not be long before excitement is back. With the lengthening nights, this is a great weekend for stargazing. The first clouds to contend with won't arrive until Sunday and they will be scattered. Showers are off limits until Monday and even then they won't amount to much.

By David Streit | November 11, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (0)

PM Update: Pleasant fall weather lives on

Our period of uncomplicated forecasts continued today and looks to do so for at least several more to come. Temperatures have bounced into the low-and-mid 60s today, which is a bit above average across the area for this time of year. If you're digging the abundant sunshine, you should be loving life through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

By Ian Livingston | November 10, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (4)

NOAA imagery: Pollution over China

Massive plumes of the gas nitrogen dioxide can be seen hovering in the troposphere (low atmosphere) above China.

By Jason Samenow | November 10, 2010; 2:30 PM ET | Comments (4)

Remembering the Dust Bowl of the 1930s

Our recent flirtation with drought-like conditions calls to mind the political wrangling which occurred a little over 75 years ago during the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s. On March 21st 1935, Hugh Bennett, a Roosevelt advisor, testified in a Senate hearing that several years of "black blizzards"* and severe soil erosion revealed that the nation was in dire need of more efficient soil conservation methods. (1) His testimony was hardly needed, however, because Bennett, aware from Washington Post stories and other sources that a Midwest dust cloud was about to overtake Washington, made sure windows were left open with water glasses nearby (as they usually were during both winter and summer in pre-air-conditioned DC).

By Don Lipman | November 10, 2010; 12:15 PM ET | Comments (9)

Long range look: Pre-Thanksgiving cold snap?

Our friends at AccuWeather are advertising the season's first significant Arctic outbreak in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.

By Jason Samenow | November 10, 2010; 9:30 AM ET | Comments (15)

Forecast: Sun and 60+ sticks around

Express Forecast Today: Partly to mostly sunny. Near 60 to low 60s. | Tonight: Mostly clear. Upper 30s to low 40s. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Near 60.

Forecast in Detail As we get toward mid-November, we've gotta savor every chance at 60 degrees we can get. Luckily, we'll have a shot at 60 or a little higher today and through the weekend. Plenty of sun, too. Full Forecast

By Dan Stillman | November 10, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (3)

National Weather Service: Growing season over

After consultation with agricultural extension agents across the Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office's county warning area ... it has been determined that the growing season for frost and freeze sensitive vegetation has ended.

By Jason Samenow | November 9, 2010; 7:30 PM ET | Comments (5)

PM Update: Sunny and 60+ tune keeps playing

For the second straight day, the sun was supreme, elevating high temperatures into the low 60s. Winds around 10-15 mph haven't been as gusty as yesterday, as low pressure off the Northeast coast slowly spins away (cool satellite loop) . These breezes ease a bit over the next several hours as we welcome a mostly clear and cool evening.

By Jason Samenow | November 9, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (2)

Do Americans think global warming is manmade?

Andrew Freedman, in yesterday's piece Scientists launch climate science counter attacks yesterday, wrote "a majority of Americans already accept manmade climate change as a reality." Capital Weather Gang's Matt Rogers challenged Freedman with the following comment: Andrew, what is your source for this statement: "a majority of Americans already accept manmade climate change as a reality"?

By Jason Samenow | November 9, 2010; 1:45 PM ET | Comments (16)

The mystery of the von Karman vortex street

Crop circles? Mini-hurricanes? Spaceships? What the heck are those things pictured to the right? What we're looking at here is a classic example of a von Karman vortex street. Other than being really cool to look at, these phenomena are just another reminder of just how weird our atmosphere can be.

By Capital Weather Gang | November 9, 2010; 10:20 AM ET | Comments (3)

Forecast: Sunny and slightly warm

Express Forecast Today: Mostly sunny, breezy mild. 59-63 | Tonight: Mostly clear and cool. 39-44. | Tomorrow: More sunshine. 59-63.

Forecast in Detail Having a long-term guest has its upsides and downsides. Our current atmospheric visitor, a friendly wedge of high pressure, plans to stay five more days, so you'll have plenty of time to get acquainted to sunshine and low 60s. Full Forecast

By Matt Rogers | November 9, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (3)

PM Update: Wind continues through tonight

This is my kind an autumn day -- lots of sun, somewhat mild temperatures and no major cold snaps on the immediate horizon to think about. Temperatures near 60 and into the lower 60s are back a little bit above average for this time of year, and compared to the chill of recent days, it feels pretty nice despite a northwest wind gusting as high as 25-30 mph this afternoon.

By Ian Livingston | November 8, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (0)

Fall storm lashes New England

A strong ocean storm, fed in part by the remnants of once Hurricane Tomas, today is smacking New England with strong winds, rain and a little bit of snow. The storm is unusual in that it's backing into New England from the east (or retrograding), rather than coming up the coast. Its development and interaction with a tropical system are leading some to compare it with the "Perfect Storm" of 1991

By Jason Samenow | November 8, 2010; 2:00 PM ET | Comments (2)

Scientists launch climate science counterattacks

After a year of dramatic setbacks, from stolen personal emails that were used to smear climate science researchers, to last week's midterm elections that ushered a large number of climate science skeptics into power, many climate scientists have had enough -- and they're about to take action by going on the offensive in a major way.

By Andrew Freedman | November 8, 2010; 11:15 AM ET | Comments (54)

What's the average date of D.C.'s first snow?

What's the average first date of snow in D.C.? The answer: Between 1971-2000, the average date of the first 0.1" of snow was December 13 and December 28 for the first inch.

By Jason Samenow | November 8, 2010; 10:15 AM ET | Comments (9)

Forecast: Sun and 60-plus through Saturday

Although we now have an hour less afternoon daylight this week, we'll have no shortage of sunshine. At least through Saturday, sunshine sparkles each and every day.

By Jason Samenow | November 8, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (3)

Forecast: Warmer weather on the way

The world looks just a bit brighter as you wake this morning. For one, the sun has been up for an hour longer, and our skies free themselves from the passing cloudiness we saw yesterday. We stay bright for the majority of the week as well, warming as we go. The only chink in the plan so far is an iffy coastal low that has the potential to increase clouds on Tuesday and also keep some gusty breezes around.

By Brian Jackson | November 7, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (3)

Forecast: Noticeably cool with a side of clouds

Chilly breezes aside, we're staring down our 5th weekend in a row with pretty benign weather -- it hasn't rained during the weekend since October 3. Of course, this one is much cooler than any of the previous, but we can only battle the calendar so long. While daytime temperatures today through tomorrow are more reminiscent of early December, there is warmer air around the bend for those hoping for another taste.

By Ian Livingston | November 6, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (9)

PM Update: Remaining breezy and brisk

Breezes from the NW provide a wind chill today

Express Forecast Today: Partly sunny & breezy. Mid-50s. | Tonight: Variably cloudy & breezy. Mid-30s to near 40. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Near 50 to low 50s.

Forecast in Detail Blustery, chilly and gray at times through this end-of-daylight-saving-time weekend. Eesh! There will be some cracks of sun though. And could a warming trend be in store next week? Full Forecast

By Jason Samenow | November 5, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (5)

Hurricane Tomas battering Haiti, Bahamas next

Tomas has been steadily intensifying since yesterday morning and reached hurricane status overnight. Its maximum sustained winds are 85 mph as the storm heads north/northeast at 12 mph through Windward Channel connecting the Caribbean and Atlantic between eastern Cuba and western Haiti. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next day as the storm sets its eyes on the southeastern Bahamas where it could peak at Category 2 intensity.

By Jason Samenow | November 5, 2010; 12:45 PM ET | Comments (2)

Winter arrives in western Maryland, W. Va.

No sooner than a day after the release of our winter outlook does the first accumulating snow event arrive in the mid-Atlantic region. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Garrett County in western Maryland, which includes Deep Creek Lake. A second winter weather advisory covers the highlands of northeast West Virginia, including extreme western Allegany, Highland, Pendleton, and western Grant and Mineral counties.

By Jason Samenow | November 5, 2010; 10:30 AM ET | Comments (6)

Forecast: Variably cloudy & chilly end to week

Express Forecast » Today: Partly to mostly cloudy & breezy. Mid-50s. | Tonight: Variably cloudy & breezy. Mid-30s to near 40. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Near 50 to low 50s. | Sunday: Mostly sunny. Low-to-mid 50s.

Could a warming trend be in store next week? Our Full Forecast

By Camden Walker | November 5, 2010; 9:00 AM ET | Comments (16)

PM Update: Raw rains to gradually diminish

Light to moderate rain has fallen almost continuously today with amounts generally around 0.75". Overcast skies have held temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. For the next several hours, it's more of the same before the rain finally starts to relent mid-evening.

By Jason Samenow | November 4, 2010; 3:40 PM ET | Comments (9)

Tropical storm Tomas taking torrential rains to Haiti

Disaster-stricken Haiti faces an unwelcome challenge as Tropical Storm Tomas makes its approach. Already, the outer bands of Tomas are moving ashore the country's southwest coast.

By Capital Weather Gang | November 4, 2010; 2:40 PM ET | Comments (3)

Winter outlook: What do you think?

So after considerable build-up, our winter outlook is finally out. How does it make you feel? Vote below...

By Jason Samenow | November 4, 2010; 11:30 AM ET | Comments (4)

Capital Weather Gang 2010-11 winter outlook

After last year winter's historic snows, there is both excitement and dread as the new winter approaches, depending on one's perspective. Snow lovers would like nothing more than a repeat of Snowpocalypse, Snowmageddon, and Snoverkill. And there are certainly those (the silent majority?) who would like as little of the white stuff as possible. As long as both groups keep their expectations reasonable, we think this winter will have something for everyone. First things first: we aren't getting as much snow as last winter. Probably not even close. We're in a La Nina and that does not usually favor big snows around here (though there have been exceptions, like 1995-1996). But we do think this winter will be snowier than our typical La Nina winter (see more on La Nina below), and very likely to be snowier than the back-to-back La Nina winters of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 when just 5 and 8 inches of snow fell.

By Matt Ross | November 4, 2010; 9:15 AM ET | Comments (46)

Forecast: Soggy today, breezy tomorrow

This is an old-fashioned rainy day. At least we get the wet stuff out of the way before the weekend. However, the unseasonably cool air can't be shaken and even downtown D.C. could see its first freeze Saturday night. That would be about on schedule. I do like the extra hour to sleep away Saturday night's chill but boy is it going to get dark early Sunday evening.

By David Streit | November 4, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (13)

PM Update: Clouds for now, rain comes later

Morning sun has given way to increasing and lowering clouds this afternoon as the first effects of tomorrow's rain producer are felt across the area. Highs have reached the low-and-mid 50s, with a light south wind making up for lack of afternoon sun by transporting in slightly warmer air. Low pressure beginning to gather to our south will send rain this way late tonight, but the evening looks to go off without a hitch.

By Ian Livingston | November 3, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (8)

The winter of 2009-2010: Could it have been colder?

The 2009-2010 winter in the DC metro area, and more generally the Southeast, was cold. To accompany our record-breaking snowfall, we experienced a relatively chilly winter, a rarity during the last few decades. However, some recent research suggests that our region, and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, was actually "lucky" - it could have been substantially colder.

By Jason Samenow | November 3, 2010; 12:30 PM ET | Comments (12)

Winter 2009-2010 mid-Atlantic snowfall map

It started simply enough. Kevin Ambrose and I were discussing the range for winter 2009-2010 snowfall totals across the region. But we wanted numbers more expansive than just official NWS totals. So, I sent out a query to the weather boards and got numerous answers. More importantly, I found a volunteer to create the map -- Katie Wheatley, a geographic information system (GIS) analyst based in Maryland who also happens to love snow.

By Ian Livingston | November 3, 2010; 10:00 AM ET | Comments (16)

Forecast: Thursday rain threat as cold remains

Admit it... Some of you thought maybe, just maybe, last year's ridiculous winter meant we'd get this winter off. Alas, only a few days into November it's become quite clear that winter will settle in sooner or later, just as it always does. In fact, highs over the next several days, especially this weekend, aren't that unlike what we'd see on the milder of winter days. The good news for those not ready to give up on fall is that after rain chances late tonight and tomorrow, and a pretty chilly weekend, a warming trend looks likely for next week.

By Dan Stillman | November 3, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (6)

PM Update: Election day ending on chilly note

Today has been the chilliest fall day of 2010 with temperatures barely crossing the 50-degree threshold. This morning's brisk wind has thankfully relented so it's not at all unpleasant especially if you're standing in the sun. But as the sun sets this evening (around 6:07 p.m.), temperatures quickly fall into the 40s - so be sure to dress warmly if you're headed to the polls late.

By Jason Samenow | November 2, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (8)

Tropical storm Tomas regroups, eyes Haiti

Tropical storm Tomas - which came perilously close to being sheared apart yesterday - is once again showing signs of life. The hostile upper level winds are relaxing, the storm is over near-record warm water, and it is moving into a moist atmosphere favorable for intensification. The majority of computer models track Tomas on a collision course with Haiti three to four days from now (Friday and Saturday).

By Jason Samenow | November 2, 2010; 2:35 PM ET | Comments (2)

Why was last year so snowy? Part II

Yesterday, I discussed how El Nino played a key role in establishing a storm track and moisture feed for generating last winter's historic snows in the mid-Atlantic. But I concluded by emphasizing El Nino did not lead to the epic snow totals by itself. The help from the north last year came from the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its cousin the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both these fluctuations have two phases and they are predicated by the differences in the pressure between the polar vortex and the pressures farther south in the mid-latitudes.

By Jason Samenow | November 2, 2010; 11:25 AM ET | Comments (17)

Election 2010: Where will the weather matter?

Most of today's marquee election matchups, including the Harry Reid-Sharon Angle Senate showdown in Nevada and the three-way Senate race in Florida, won't have any weather issues to deal with. Bad weather does, however, have the potential to play a role in a few races of interest.

By Dan Stillman | November 2, 2010; 9:00 AM ET | Comments (1)

Forecast: More sweater weather

With daytime temperatures around 8-10 degrees colder than normal yesterday, many of us went diving into our closets, trunks, and drawers in search of heavier clothing and especially those sweaters. Well, wherever you found them, you'll need them more in the days ahead as a cooler-than-normal pattern persists despite super-sunny skies. Clouds slowly return tomorrow before delivering showers on Wednesday night and Thursday. The upcoming weekend is looking sweater-weather cold too, but at least it should be dry.

By Matt Rogers | November 2, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (7)

ElectionCast: Frosty start, then sun-filled skies

If you're off to the polls early, you may need an ice-scraper and a little extra time to clean off your windows. But after about 8 a.m or 9 a.m., the sun goes to work and temperatures steadily progress well into the 40s by around lunch time. The most pleasant time to vote will be in the afternoon, when highs reach the low 50s under mostly clear skies. All-in-all, it's quite a chilly election day with high temperatures about 8-10 degrees below average.

By Jason Samenow | November 1, 2010; 6:45 PM ET | Comments (1)

PM Update: Frost advisory D.C., east and south

Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures have only risen into the low-and-mid 50s this afternoon and a sometimes gusty north wind is adding an extra chill. As Jason alluded to this morning, it's feeling like the extended warm season of 2010 is finally coming to a close. Sure, we could see a mild day or two in the future, but days like this and nights like the one ahead are a good reminder winter is around the corner.

By Ian Livingston | November 1, 2010; 3:30 PM ET | Comments (6)

Tropical storm Tomas a goner? Haiti hoping ...

Tomas is now a weak tropical storm with maximum winds estimated near 45 mph. Located in the central Caribbean, several hundred miles southeast of Haiti, Tomas is moving basically westward at 14 mph. Hardly distinguishable on the infrared satellite pictures amidst a seemingly disorganized arrangement of thunderstorm complexes, Tomas has been battling a strong headwind for the last couple of days that has effectively torn the structure apart. Neither of the two large clusters of thunderstorms on the right half of the image sit atop the low-level vortex. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the gap between the nearest storms and the near-surface swirl is over 100 miles. A vertical structure like this, where there's a strong tilt to -or even a complete dismantling of- the vortex tube, is potentially devastating to the system as a whole.

By Greg Postel | November 1, 2010; 2:55 PM ET | Comments (0)

Southeast rainfall more variable as climate warms

In recent years the southeastern U.S. has had a string of summers with unusual amounts of rainfall. There was the withering drought in 2007, during which Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue famously held a prayer service for rain. This eventually worked -- albeit too well. Late last summer the drought-stricken region was hard hit by record flooding. A new analysis of six decades of weather and climate data finds that such extreme summers are becoming more common in the region, due to shifting atmospheric steering currents that appear to be related to manmade global warming.

By Andrew Freedman | November 1, 2010; 12:45 PM ET | Comments (4)

Why was last year so snowy? Part I

Last winter was the snowiest on record for much of the mid-Atlantic region from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia, Pa. Baltimore shattered its old record with 77" compared to the 62.5" from the 1995-1996 season. Washington received 56.1" of snow which broke the snowfall record of 54.4" that was previously set in 1899. Three of the heaviest 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore and two of the top 10 for Washington DC occurred last winter. In retrospect, a few readers probably have wondered why last year was so snowy compared to other recent years.

By Jason Samenow | November 1, 2010; 10:45 AM ET | Comments (12)

Freeze watch for entire metro region tonight

Temperatures inside the beltway and east toward the Bay will flirt with freezing tonight, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a freeze watch for these areas. The following locations are included in the watch: DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH

By Jason Samenow | November 1, 2010; 9:05 AM ET | Comments (8)

Forecast: November off to sunny, cool start

Some of the recent starts to the week haven't really felt like fall -- with almost summer-like temperatures in 70s and 80s. But today, there's no mistaking the season - with a frosty morning in many spots and high temperatures struggling to 55. Then, after mid-to-late week rains, it turns practically winter-like by late Friday into the weekend with highs temps struggling to reach 50.

By Jason Samenow | November 1, 2010; 5:00 AM ET | Comments (4)