So far, my run as a Saturday forecaster has been fairly simple in the nearer term. This is my third forecast for a dry weekend and the 7th dry weekend in a row for the area. We're on a bit of a seesaw ride the next few days though. It's fairly mild -- if also breezy -- today, then cooler tomorrow. We go back up to more mild temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, then back down again... Perhaps way down into the holiday period.
Today I hosted the first edition of the new live chat video program "Weather Gang Lab." Weather Gang Lab provides an in-depth look at the big weather story of the week with original analysis. It will tend to focus on D.C. area weather stories but may sometimes address weather making news elsewhere. The final segment of the program will address user questions. The program will run each week, probably on Thursday afternoon.
A cool airmass settled over the region today, but abundant sunshine took away the bite, pushing afternoon temperatures into the low-to-mid 50s. A clear, calm, and cold night is ahead, so grab your jacket for the commute home and any evening plans.
As reported recently in the Washington Post, a flood control plan is in the works to protect the Washington Mall and large sections of downtown DC by constructing large earthen berms and eight-foot high aluminum panels just west of the Mall near the Washington Monument (see enlarged map). But will this project alone offer anything close to a guarantee that DC's flood problems will become something of the past? No way!
This has been a pretty pleasant November, though there have been periods of both well above and well below average temperatures. While a good portion of the area has seen a freeze at this point (i.e., Dulles as low as 28 on the 12th, with 12 days in November at or below freezing), National Airport (DCA) still has not. Computer guidance available right now seems to indicate there is not a freeze coming to DCA in the immediate future. How odd is it that we have not seen it yet? Not that odd, actually.
We should have a beautiful Friday and weekend -- albeit chilly from time to time. Temperatures and breezes notwithstanding, looks like a good opportunity to enjoy some sunshine, go for a run, or any myriad of outdoor activities. Just be sure to dress in layers, especially early or late, because the sun will be the main factor keeping you warm. By early next week, our slow upward trend in temperatures shows results. However clouds become an issue on Monday, and by Tuesday we may end our fair weather completely.
The National Weather Service in Sterling has confirmed a tornado carved a 0.4 mile path through in northeast Baltimore (Hamilton) and Parkville in Baltimore County Tuesday night (or early Wednesday morning). The twister, linked to three minor injuries, grew to a maximum width of 250 yards wide and packed peak winds of around 100 mph. The storm was classified as category one on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) tornado scale, which ranges from zero to five.
A weak disturbance passing through the region has made for a cloudy afternoon. Temperatures have risen to their seasonal norms in the mid-to-upper 50s. Cloud cover stays with us through the evening commute, and a sprinkle or shower can't entirely be ruled out - especially west of the District.
Long-range forecasts made last spring for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season nearly unanimously predicted lots of storms. Though they generally underforecast how many we would actually observe, they were right it would be an active season. In remarkable fashion, the ocean-atmosphere interplay throughout the tropics in 2010 allowed for a hyper-production of cyclones rarely matched in modern times. Only 2 seasons since 1944 recorded more named storms: 1995 (19) and 2005 (28).
As the 2010 holiday shopping season officially gets underway the Friday after Thanksgiving, many retailers are hoping they won't see a repeat of a lasting image from last year's holiday season -- parking lots covered with as much as (or more than) two feet of snow, instead of teeming with cars and hungry holiday shoppers.
Another beautiful stretch of weather will have us forgetting all that blowing and crashing of the past day in short order. The mild, dry conditions allow all of you well-prepared cooks to get in those grocery runs for next week's Thanksgiving feasts. My only question is will downtown DC, including Reagan National, ever hit the freezing mark?
Compared to last night, when winds reportedly gusted as high as 89 mph in D.C., today has been relatively calmer, even with continued strong winds reaching advisory-level criteria. Temperatures reaching near 60 and into the low 60 have been pretty pleasant as well. The down side as I see it? Those leaves still on the trees are taking a beating...
You may have noticed chatter about potential for wintry weather around or just after Thanksgiving at AccuWeather and on the Baltimore Sun's weather blog. It's too early to be speculating about forecast details more than a week away, but we can talk about how the large scale weather patterns are evolving and what kind of weather they might support.
During the summer months, middle of the night severe thunderstorms are not uncommon even if startling. But we seldom witness an intense squall line with damaging winds tear through the heart of the metro region after midnight in mid-November. So how did this occur last night? The intensity of the thunderstorm outbreak can be traced to the convergence of a number of atmospheric ingredients.
The somewhat active weather continues today, with gusty winds the main story, after what had been a pretty long stretch of ho-hum, nothing-to-see-here weather (the Monday night-Tuesday rain was our first measurable rain since Nov. 5). By tomorrow, however, the weather settles down once again.
Storms down trees, produce winds to 60 mph (originally posted with storm warnings at 12:45 a.m, updated at 1:40 a.m.) * Severe thunderstorms warnings that had been in effect are now canceled * 1:40 a.m. update: The worst of the storms are over as they have already reached the Chesapeake...
A moisture-laden southern storm has kept the rain coming since last night. The start of the rain coincided with the Eagles taking a 35-0 lead over the Redskins moments into the second quarter of last night's
game debacle. Reagan National has reported light rain for 16 straight hours. Rainfall amounts have generally been between one-third and two-thirds of an inch, with some higher amounts to west and southwest. Rain will continue through the evening commute so allow extra time.
Last Thursday, Ellen Generes' monolog featured a familiar theme: the T.V. weather report. Her commentary, which laments the dumbing down of weather reporting, is both humorous and harsh. For example, she quips: "The weather reports treats us like we're idiots all the time. There's a big smiley face on the sun. . . . It's like we're first graders..."
Omaha baseball team re-named "Storm Chasers"
"Snowmageddon", the word used to describe the historic snowstorm that crippled the mid-Atlantic last February 4-5 has been named on the Global Language Monitor's (GLM) "top words of 2010". The first use of the term in the context of last February's storm can be traced to the Capital Weather Gang.
A big low pressure system coming from the Deep South delivers major moisture to our area through tonight. I don't think the winds get too crazy tomorrow to strip our foliage, but they should be noticeably breezy behind the storm. And then its back to dry weather.
The brilliant weather of the past few days has ended, and today was pretty cloudy on the whole. Still, temperatures rising to near 60 are not too bad for this time of year. Next up is some rain, which begins to threaten later this evening before lasting through tomorrow. We're probably not looking at major rain amounts, but enough to make the day pretty soggy.
The biggest pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm in nearly 20 years buried the Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul) with 6-10 inches of snow over the weekend (most of the snow fell Saturday).
In a segment of the WSJ "Opinion Journal" web video program, editorial writer Anne Jolis criticizes the AGU's innocuous effort for selectively excluding three climate skeptics: Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, and John R. Christy. Unfortunately, spouting ridiculous climate science conspiracy theories is nothing new for the WSJ editorial board, which is legendary within the climate science community for distorting the vast body of evidence pointing to the role of human activities in helping to drive the recent increase in global temperatures.
For an entire week, we enjoyed beautiful sunshine and highs in the low 60s or better. So when clouds move in today and especially tonight, we can pay our respects as it was a really good run. Rain chances kick in as tonight wears on and continue through early Wednesday. By Thursday, we begin another dry stretch but temps are shade cooler - this time mainly in the 50s - which is just about average.
The chance of showers, mainly light, increases as the game goes on -- 40% chance during the first half and 60% for the 2nd half. Temps are reasonably comfortable, in the low-to-mid 50s.
We'll have two more days to enjoy this pleasant weather before shower chances interrupt our flow as we head into Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon and night may very well bring some decent rains. But the inclement weather is short-lived with sunshine returning during the day Wednesday.