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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 11/22/2010

Forecast: Mild Monday, late week cooling

By Jason Samenow

* Dense Fog Advisory until 11 a.m. for metro region *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

I'll take 60s in late November any day
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny. 60-65. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. 44-50. | Tomorrow: Quite mild. Chance of p.m. showers. Mid-60s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Two cold fronts push through the region this week, knocking temperatures down in two steps. The first front comes in tomorrow afternoon, dropping temperatures from above average Monday and Tuesday to average by Wednesday. The second front arrives Thanksgiving, dropping temperatures to below average levels Black Friday though the weekend. With each front, we'll run the risk of showers.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): We start off the day with some patchy fog. But that burns off (where it forms) and most spots have at least partial sunshine by mid-morning. As high pressure moves offshore, our winds start to come in from the south, and temps reach the low-to-mid 60s for highs. That's about 5-8 degrees above average. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Flow from the south brings in some high clouds but there should be plenty of breaks for viewing the full moon. Overnight lows are fairly mild, ranging from the low-to-mid 40s in the cooler suburbs to near 50 downtown. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Southerly flow gives temperatures a big boost, warming us through the 50s in the morning. But an approaching cold front steadily increases cloud cover, with better than even chances of afternoon showers. Before the rain, highs reach the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Showers end by evening, followed by clearing skies overnight. Temps fall back to the upper 30s in the cooler suburbs to the mid-40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

High pressure pays a brief return visit Wednesday making for a sunny, seasonable day. Definitely good travel weather, at least locally. Highs range from 55-60. Increasing clouds Wednesday night, with lows 40-45 (suburbs-city). There's a 20% of light rain before dawn. Confidence: Medium-High

A frontal system is incoming Thanksgiving Day. A warm front pressing northward provides intermittent day time shower chances (50-60%) with the trailing cold front triggering showers and possibly thunderstorms overnight (60-70% chance). Highs on Thanksgiving are in the mid-50s with steady temperatures at night. Confidence: Medium

Showers may linger early-to-mid morning Black Friday, with gradual clearing from west to east thereafter. It becomes windy and cool with temperatures steady in the low 50s. Blustery and cold Friday night, with lows 27-33 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

Mostly sunny and cold for the weekend, with highs both days in the 40s. Saturday night's lows range from the mid-20s to low 30s. Winds from the northwest from 10-20 mph Saturday to light moderate from the west on Sunday. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | November 22, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Lots of moisture around so 8 seems a bit optimistic.

Posted by: eric654 | November 22, 2010 6:22 AM | Report abuse

So I see us a 22 days away from our first frozen precip!

Yay to sub freezing temps!

Posted by: panthersny | November 22, 2010 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Sixties with warm air from the south & partial sunshine sounds pretty good to me!
Fog & drenching dew made it so wet this morning I thought we had had some overnight rain.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | November 22, 2010 8:56 AM | Report abuse

Not to be too picky but, "should be plenty of breaks for viewing the full moon" I thought that the moon was full yesterday? Thanks again for all of your great forecasts!

Posted by: drewbird911 | November 22, 2010 9:49 AM | Report abuse

@eric654

This is one of those days where you almost need one digit for the morning (the fog and overcast are going to be be slow to burn off, as we expected in both yesterday's and today's forecasts), and another in the afternoon when it's going to be mild with at least partial sunshine. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | November 22, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

personally, i thought the fog was beautiful this morning. makes the world look like a movie set or something... really pretty, imho.

so, i guess our snow chances for this upcoming weekend have pretty much evaporated? oh well... i didn't let myself get too invested in that possibility...

panthersny,
why do you think we're 22 days away from frozen precip?

other weather expert types,
why do you think panthersny thinks that? is there something in the models or climatology or what?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | November 22, 2010 10:12 AM | Report abuse

@drewbird911

Moon is 99% full tonight... pretty close. You're right, the 100% full moon was last night. It was pretty cool.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | November 22, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

There was a never a CWG mention of snow this weekend and that remains the case. Maybe you're thinking of a reader comment - but there's little to like in the current pattern for snow here.

And there's nothing anyone can credibly say about the prospects for wintry precip 22 days from now.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | November 22, 2010 10:49 AM | Report abuse

Mark my words...it will snow, even if only flurries...in 13 days...Sunday, Dec. 5th!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 22, 2010 11:27 AM | Report abuse

We're also getting the La Nina setup...plenty of cold air...but the darned high pressure centers are passing directly overhead or to our south. Whenever this happens, the southwesterly return flow warms us back up and we NEVER get snow...we're more likely to get thunderstorms instead with the next frontal passage. I was able to listen to WSM last night and they had thunderstorms in the forecast for Nashville on Wednesday.

We need to have the high pressure setting up over Quebec or the Canadian Maritimes...giving us a subfreezing northeasterly flow as the next low [likely a Miller type "A"] approaches. That way, if we don't get snow, we get at least cold-air damming and a good period of ice or sleet...it all depends on how deep the cold air layer is. Unfortunately such setups tend to be rare or nonexistent during La Nina winters...there's plenty of cold air around in such winters but because the anticyclones pass to our south, the mild/warm air comes rushing right back over us!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 22, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

ok Bombo! I shall mark it. :) I admire your spirit.. it is a gamble!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | November 22, 2010 12:18 PM | Report abuse

I continue to patiently wait for the maps to show us our annual December 6th snow. I agree with Bombo too, though; this looks like a warm and wet followed by cold and dry type of winter.

Posted by: curtmccormick | November 22, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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