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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 11/16/2010

Forecast: A slick and sloppy rainy day

By Matt Rogers

Watch out for wet leaves

* WSJ editorial board spins climate science, again | MN snowstorm *
* Outside now? Radar, temps, clouds & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Blah rainy day. But at least it's not cold.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: AM Showers. PM Rain. 55-59 | Tonight: More showers, possibly a thunderstorm. 50-55. | Tomorrow: AM Clouds, PM Clearing. 61-65. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

I've really enjoyed the late autumn colors this year. But I do not care for wet leaves. Wet clumps of leaves can offer a slippery situation that warrants caution. A big low pressure system coming from the Deep South delivers major moisture to our area through tonight. I don't think the winds get too crazy tomorrow to strip our foliage, but they should be noticeably breezy behind the storm. And then the rest of the week and this weekend bring us back to dry weather, so we can go back to enjoying these colors!


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): We'll have some showers this morning with a steadier rain this afternoon as low pressure approaches from the south and west. The rain could be moderate to heavy toward the late afternoon and evening. Today's rain totals could reach up to a half inch (.5") or so. Mostly cloudy skies and precipitation hold the high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s. But the humidity and southerly breezes should create a mild, humid feel to the day. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Look for more showers and even a stray thunderstorm from the evening into the overnight period. Showers may be moderate or heavy at times. Another .25" to .5" adds to the daytime totals. Precipitation then tapers toward dawn. Cloudy skies with lows in the low-to-mid 50s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): As low pressure passes to our north and west, our winds shift, come from the west, and pick up to 15-20 mph with higher gusts possible. Clouds linger in the morning, but should break apart by the afternoon, allowing for more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs in the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Cooler weather works into the area, and our temperatures return to the low 40s for lows or maybe the upper 30s in the outer suburbs under partly cloudy skies. Winds settle down to lighter 5-10 mph levels. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday and Friday are similar days with partly to mostly sunny conditions and temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s. Friday should be the slightly cooler one, and lows Friday morning are seen dipping into the 30s, especially just outside the District. This sounds nice, but for fair disclosure, I do have to mention a slight chance of showers late Thursday into early Friday (20% chance). Confidence: Medium

The last weekend before Thanksgiving looks nice right now with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. We could see a few more clouds on Sunday vs. Saturday, and I would not be surprised to see us sneak up closer to 60 for high temperatures by Sunday. But no precipitation troubles are lurking, and our leaves will have had plenty of time to dry out so you can rake them...or just look at them. Confidence: Medium

By Matt Rogers  | November 16, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: "Snowmageddon": one of 2010's top words

Comments

Snowmageddon, Snowpocalypse listed in this year's Global Language Monitor List
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1527370420101115

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | November 16, 2010 7:03 AM | Report abuse

NBC Nightly News also talked about it last night and mentioned the crippling snowfall.

By the way, was it determined who first came up with the term?

Wasn't it here??

Posted by: jaybird926 | November 16, 2010 8:16 AM | Report abuse

I heard it here first, by one of the commentators on the site. Not sure if that can be verified.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | November 16, 2010 8:57 AM | Report abuse

I couldn't remember either- Jason is writing an upcoming post on the story, so check back in a bit!

Posted by: MattRogers1 | November 16, 2010 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Anyone wear goulashes or waterproof boots today? My tennis shoes are nice and soaked haha

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | November 16, 2010 10:12 AM | Report abuse

I used to work with a guy who would wear those weird rubber overshoes on a wet day. To the office.

We called him a brave man.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | November 16, 2010 10:27 AM | Report abuse

It looks like La Nina is really flexing its muscle early this year. Temps look to be 5-10 above average in the Fairfax area for the next 10 days at least - the idea of a cold snap around Thanksgiving appears to have fallen by the wayside. In particular, the minimums look to be especially high, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s at a time when the average is now below freezing.

I would not be surprised if this pattern holds most of the winter. No torch, but temps persistently in the +5 range.

As an interesting aside, the "fake model pattern change" appears to be a regular feature during La Nina years. A week ago, there was discussion of very cold air moving in for Thanksgiving. Now that's off the table. It seems like the pattern change to cold in La Nina years is always "hinted at" by the models 2 weeks out - but it always stays 2 weeks out and seldom if ever materializes!

Posted by: jahutch | November 16, 2010 12:07 PM | Report abuse

My parents always used to refer to goulashes as "rubbers". As a teenager I found that THAT term was used to refer to an entirely different type of latex product.

Interestingly enough

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 16, 2010 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Don't know why my computer is "autoposting" my incomplete message! Could be that the much-unneeded SAD crowd is trying to mess with me again on dance day! Please feel free to delete the unfinished post.

Anyway what I was saying was that in my family we always referred to goulashes as "rubbers". Later in my teenage years I found THAT term used for an entirely different type of latex product!

Later on I've read that Russians during the Soviet era brought the vocabulary gymnastics full-circle. Apparently the government-produced condoms available for sale during the Soviet era were so clumsy to use that the Russians took to calling THEM "goulashes"!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 16, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

jahutch, I missed that somehow- the possible cold mass discussion is off the table? The models have shifted? Could you direct me to that discussion? Inquiring minds want to know :)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | November 16, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

@Snowlover2

We're going to have a full discussion about a possible pattern change tomorrow. I don't necessarily agree with jahutch that cold air around Thanksgiving is definitively off the table. Lots of details still need to be worked out.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | November 16, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Jason. Yes, from what I could see there is still more than one scenario at play. While I understand looking too far out is a fools errand, it an informative, easy way for amateurs to learn about model reading- I was wondering how far off base I've been. I look forward to tomorrow's discussion.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | November 16, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Accuweather and the 12Z GFS are hinting at the first chance of snow for the mid atlantic around the thanksgiving time period. Just something to pay attention to to in the next week or so.

Posted by: ajmupitt | November 16, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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