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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 11/15/2010

Forecast: Sunny streak ends today

By Jason Samenow

Rain tomorrow, cooler mid-week

* SkinsCast | Outside now? Temps & more: Weather Wall *

(originally posted at 5:00 a.m., updated at 7:30 a.m.)

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Clouds build, but one more mild, dry day before damp gloominess.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: AM fog, then partly sunny. 59-64. | Tonight: Increasing rain chances late. 45-50. | Tomorrow: Occasional rain showers. 55-60. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

For an entire week, we enjoyed beautiful sunshine and highs in the low 60s or better. So when clouds move in today and especially tonight, we can pay our respects as it was a really good run. Rain chances increase as tonight wears on and continue through early Wednesday. By Thursday, we begin another (mostly) dry stretch but temps are a shade cooler - this time mainly in the 50s - which is just about average.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Unlike the past seven days, I can't confidently predict abundant sunshine. We wake up to some patchy fog and, this afternoon, clouds stream ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest. Still, some sunny intervals are likely, pushing high temperatures into the low 60s. Winds are light. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds lower and thicken this evening with a 20-30% chance of light rain before midnight. After midnight, the odds of rain steadily increase to about 60-70% by morning. Overnight lows are in the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through next weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Low pressure developing in the Tennessee Valley feeds clouds and occasional showers into the region (70% chance). It's not looking like an all-day washout, but more likely an intermittent rain affair. The clouds and rain hold highs in the mid-50s to near 60. Rainfall potential is around 0.25-0.5" with the heaviest amounts west of town. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Occasional rain showers continue, a few of which could be on the heavier side, especially west of town. Rain starts to diminish in coverage and intensity after midnight, with lows 50-55 (held up by clouds and winds from the south). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

A lingering shower is possible east of town Wednesday morning, but the sun re-emerges pretty much everywhere before noon. The sun and wind from the west dries things out and elevates afternoon temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s. The cooler air behind the cold front passing through early in the day doesn't manifest itself until the overnight hours, when lows drop back into the 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Skies are variably cloudy Thursday as a weak disturbance passes by to the south. An isolated shower can't be ruled out (20% chance). It's much cooler, with highs only 50-55. Clearing and cold Thursday night, with lows 30-35 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

High pressure builds back into the region Friday through Sunday delivering yet another dry, enjoyable weekend. It's not as mild as the last several, but highs moderate from the low 50s on Friday to possibly near 60 by Sunday (though some cold air to the north could knock these highs down a little). Overnight lows are seasonably chilly, from the upper 20s to mid-30s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | November 15, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

We haven't had a white Thanksgiving here since 1989. Other than a near-miss in 1971, that's been it for snowy Thanksgivings in recent decades. My mantra: snow on the hen in 2010.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | November 15, 2010 8:30 AM | Report abuse

Some incredibly dense fog out in northern VA this morning. Visibility of less than 100 yards driving through Manassas battlefield.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | November 15, 2010 8:43 AM | Report abuse

JerryFloyd1 - great phrasing there! Yes, wow, I remember getting stuck in Culpeper VA in 1989's snow. You really like the idea of a white Tgiving, eh?

FIREDRAGON47 - hope you were driving carefully out there. Even in DC's Cleveland Park I observed dense fog and spotty drizzle. It was more dense than I was expecting; but you used low beams on your car, right??

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | November 15, 2010 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Camden, 1989 was, I believe, the only year we had snow on both T'giving and Christmas.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | November 15, 2010 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Rain potential...still holding at around 0.50" to 1" for the entire event...most of our rain appears to fall tomorrow morning and afternoon. Showers or intermittent, perhaps steadier rain early tomorrow afternoon. Rain may begin tapering off by sunset tomorrow...depends on low track to west of the metro area. One issue: stationary frontal boundary begins moving to our north and west as warm front; more time in warm sector could influence duration and possible convective nature of rain. This would be particularly true if sun breaks through the clouds tomorrow, causing ground warming & possible instability. May need to monitor NWS forecast CAPE values if we are in warm sector for extended period.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 15, 2010 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Thanksgiving Eve night in 2005, there was a very quick burst of snow in Western Fairfax...had about an inch and a half in 90 minutes and woke up to a white ground on Turkey Day morning. I believe it was fairly localized since IAD only showed .3 there. I had much more than three tenths about 5 miles SE of the airport. I moved here in 1990, so I missed on the '89 snow. Thats it in 20 years for me on Thanksgiving...

Posted by: DullesARC | November 15, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

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