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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 11/23/2010

Forecast: Warmer today, chance of PM showers

By Matt Rogers

Tricky Thanksgiving wet weather

* Lessons from climategate | Cold air to erode on journey east *
* Outside now? Radar, temps, clouds & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Some showers & clouds this afternoon disrupt an otherwise nice, mild day.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. PM shower chances. 63-68 | Tonight: Evening showers then clearing. 38-43. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, cooler. 50-54. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Changeable November weather continues to complicate our holiday weather picture. If you have travel plans west of here, you may run into weather-related delays tomorrow as a storm system affects the Midwest. That storm reaches our region by Thanksgiving in the form of a warm front (rain) and then on Black Friday in the form of a cold front (more rain). I don't think both days are complete ruinous washouts, but the pesky storm system will get in the way at times.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): Look out for patchy fog early this morning. Otherwise, today is the warmest day of the week with temperatures popping up into the middle and upper 60s (maybe a 70 in spots?), but showers muddle the mildness by later this afternoon into the evening (30% chance) as a cold front advances across the metro area. Partly cloudy skies this morning lead to mostly cloudy afternoon conditions. Winds come from the south and west at 5 to 10 mph, bringing in that milder air. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: An evening cold front keeps the shower chances around (30%), but skies start to clear as quickly as late evening, and winds shift to come from the colder northwest direction. That means low temperatures dip down to the upper 30s and low 40s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the holiday...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): High pressure accomplishes two things for tomorrow- sunnier skies and cooler air. Low-to-mid 50s are as high as we'll probably go, but dry weather prevails for the East Coast in case you're traveling north or south (rain is arriving out in the Midwest). Light winds. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Clouds gradually return to the area overnight, but sufficient low-level cold air should take our low temperatures down into the 30s in most areas (maybe holding near 40 downtown). Light winds. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thanksgiving looks to start cloudy with mainly showers or light rain around the area. More widespread coverage is expected in the afternoon, especially around DC and toward areas north of the city as a warm front carves a path northward. The day should start cool, but I believe the warm front could punch through by late afternoon and allow the area to push into the middle or even upper 50s by late afternoon. More showers afflict Thanksgiving night with at least mild conditions (mid-to-upper 40s or even holding near 50 in the city). Confidence: Low-Medium

Black Friday challenges the early bird shoppers from a precipitation standpoint (bring umbrellas), but the milder weather is welcome (maybe upper 40s, but possibly holding in the 50s). Temperatures quickly move up through those 50s in the morning hours, but heavier showers are possible at times toward midday as the cold front slices through the area. Steady or dropping temperatures along with remnant showers and breezy conditions in the afternoon. Confidence: Low

The final weekend of November (can you believe it?!) promises to be a colder one with highs in the 40s to around 50 and lows in the 20s and 30s. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the consolation prize for the colder weather so you can maybe get outside and work off those "leftover" calories. However, a slight chance of showers is seen toward Sunday evening.Confidence: Medium

By Matt Rogers  | November 23, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecasting "turkeys": predictions gone awry

Comments

An amazing early morning for those who had time to savor it. At 6:15 in Harpers Ferry, we had clear sky (no fog, despite nearby rivers), gigantic bright moon still high above the trees with setting Orion just visible around it, Venus almost glaringly bright, dawn breaking behind Maryland Heights to our east, an occasional C-5 coming out of Martinsburg with lights making it look kind of like Santa's sleigh (or so somebody said ;).

Posted by: tinkerbelle | November 23, 2010 6:49 AM | Report abuse

tinkerbelle - that sounds amazing! To me, I believe your elevation kept you above the clouds & fog. Glad you had such a spectacular scene!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | November 23, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Remaining leaves coming down fast. Still a few crickets chirping.

WREX-13, Rockford, IL web site has good images of yesterday's tornado up there. NWS is still investigating for intensity, etc.

Will first frost hit here on Saturday?

Looks as though "Vortmax" is planning to revive Eastern U.S. weather board. It's now up but mainly "read only" with most bloggers now posting on American Wx weather board.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 23, 2010 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Looks like prefect weather in Blacksburg for the Tech - UVa game Sat., partly cloudy 48. Better than the original of cloudy, windy & upper 30's. Won't have to bundle up for the game.
Go Hokies.

Posted by: VaTechBob | November 23, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Any chance the CWG crew will take a stab at the 2 storms accuWX has been hyping up in the long range? Any chances these 2 storms bring snow or even hit us at all?

Looking forward to any info CWG can provide!

I know its a ways out so its hard to make a call, but I'd still love to hear your best guess :)

Posted by: KRUZ | November 23, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

Hi KRUZ, I haven't seen the Accu-Weather hype machine on these storms yet, but I can say that the development of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index (-NAO) may offer some opportunities for December snow around our area. Unfortunately, the weather models are having a terrible time handling Pacific energy currently, so they are struggling to converge on any one identifiable storm opportunity. My guess is that our best chances would come Dec 5th and beyond- as it will take a while to get sufficient cold air into the East.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | November 23, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

MattRogers1,

Thanks for the quick response :)

I saw Henry Margusity's latest video where he was talking about the december 5th storm and saying thay we will be getting snow, only thing that has to be figured out is the rain/snow line.

Posted by: KRUZ | November 23, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

That is funny to hear such precision on a precipitation forecast over ten days away.

Posted by: MattRogers1 | November 23, 2010 6:15 PM | Report abuse

MattRogers1

Thats what i was thinking, thats why I called it hype. Looking at the GFS model runs it does look like a big storm, but that 540 line is way up in PA.

Posted by: KRUZ | November 23, 2010 6:26 PM | Report abuse

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