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Posted at 8:30 AM ET, 11/30/2010

Forecast: Mild with rain arriving, heavy tonight

By Matt Rogers

(originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 11:20 a.m.)

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.


I dig the warmer weather today, but the rains drag us down.
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter


Today: Cloudy with scattered showers. Mid-to-upper 50s. | Tonight: Heavy showers & t'storms. 52-57 | Tomorrow: A.M. rain. 52-57. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


Can you believe December begins tomorrow? Winter is speeding toward us with sharp temperature swings and a chance of some late weekend wintry weather. In the transition, we'll contend with heavier showers and maybe thunderstorms tonight into about midday tomorrow. This is triggering the current National Weather Service Flash Flood Watch for the entire area tonight and tomorrow. Heavier downpours could cause problems with already leaf-clogged poor drainage areas. So before we get winter, we flush out a bit more of fall.

Snow Potential Index: 3 (↑) - A little model support for a touch of white on 12/5. Still looks minor with marginally cold temps.

The SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): A storm system and associated cold front approaches the area, offering clouds and occasional showers. The rain should be mostly on the scattered and light side through most of the day, with an overall 40% chance of rain at any given time and location. Highs lift up into the mid-50s and possibly the upper 50s in spots as winds run at 10-15 mph from the south. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Waves of showers and possible thunderstorms offer heavier downpours at times, especially around midnight or later when the chance of rain increases to about 90%. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds. With overall winds from the south continuing, temperatures hold steady in the 50s to make for a very mild night under cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): December starts complicated with a warm morning, more showers and maybe some thunderstorms up through about midday (heavier downpours still possible), and then a blustery mid-to-late afternoon behind a powerful cold front passage. Total event precipitation could reach up to 1-2". Temperatures hold in the 50s in the morning into midday and then downshift by late afternoon. Winds from the northwest at 15-25 mph with even higher gusts feels cold especially by late afternoon into the evening. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Blustery conditions with falling temperatures lend to a less-than-pleasant evening and overnight period. Lows plummet into the 30s in the city with 20s in the suburbs. Skies begin clearing, especially after midnight. Confidence: Medium


Thursday and Friday are a pair of very similar days with cold winter-like conditions. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to 30s are the rule with partly sunny skies. The one difference is that Thursday sees breezier conditions than Friday due to lingering impacts from Wednesday's wild weather. Confidence: Medium

The weekend at the very highest level point of view should be similar to Thursday and Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 40s and lows in the cold 20s and 30s. However, we could find ourselves with a little winter weather wrinkle on Saturday night and Sunday if a low pressure manages to swing through our area. The guidance tools that we look at are mixed right now with either no precipitation and only partly cloudy skies or potentially our first snow. There, I said it. Check out the Snow Potential Index (SPI) earlier in this post for our latest feel on the situation. Confidence: Low

By Matt Rogers  | November 30, 2010; 8:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: 2010 finishes #2 in D.C. for freeze-less category



Posted by: 300_sq_ft | November 30, 2010 5:28 AM | Report abuse

Had light, almost moderate rain leaving Front Royal this morning. That band looks like it is weakening a bit but still swooping in quickly to dampen the morning commute around the city (normal people's commute).

Posted by: eric654 | November 30, 2010 5:38 AM | Report abuse

It's raining NOW in Chevy Chase.

Posted by: summerlover | November 30, 2010 6:49 AM | Report abuse

The SPI is a great and fun idea, thanks for continuing to improve upon this excellent blog!

Posted by: novajeffc | November 30, 2010 7:24 AM | Report abuse

I just biked to work in College Park, and it sure seems to be raining this morning.

Posted by: davideisner | November 30, 2010 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Not raining too hard thus far...but rather wet. Big issues involve tonight's Clarendon Ballroom dance and my Safeway errand tomorrow morning. High wind + rain could be the big problem with lightning also a threat. Would prefer if this mess moves out by 9 am.

Chief severe/tornado threat now affecting Alabama; main threat tonight is to Central Va. and North Carolina. Our problem is that low passes directly overhead around 1200Z tomorrow morning. Rain potential still looks like 1.25" for the event with higher amounts locally.

Today marks the end of the "official" hurricane season and the end of meteorological autumn. This year saw an above-average hurricane season for number of storms but below average for U.S. impact; the lack of any landfalling storms contributed to our dry spell during most of September.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 30, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

My winter outlook:
Temps +2.5-4.5
Mod - strong La.Nina, with NAO trending mostly positive.
Cold air will remian mostly N & W of the area.
Snow 4-8".
Lows will tend 2 track S or W of the area.

Posted by: VaTechBob | November 30, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Have to admit.....I was a little off yesterday. When I questioned the thunderstorm forecast for tonight (and the outside chance for severe weather), I didn't think the low dew points of yesterday would rise as rapidly as they did overnight and this morning, even with a strong southerly flow. They are now up in the low 50's...margnally high enough for severe storms if the dynamics are right.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | November 30, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

Y'all are the best. SPI a scary new term. I don't leave home w/out checking in with the CWG & its loyal followers. Thanks !

Posted by: TXMary | November 30, 2010 10:56 PM | Report abuse

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