Forecast: Mild with rain arriving, heavy tonight
(originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 11:20 a.m.)
FORECAST IN DETAIL
Can you believe December begins tomorrow? Winter is speeding toward us with sharp temperature swings and a chance of some late weekend wintry weather. In the transition, we'll contend with heavier showers and maybe thunderstorms tonight into about midday tomorrow. This is triggering the current National Weather Service Flash Flood Watch for the entire area tonight and tomorrow. Heavier downpours could cause problems with already leaf-clogged poor drainage areas. So before we get winter, we flush out a bit more of fall.
Today (Tuesday): A storm system and associated cold front approaches the area, offering clouds and occasional showers. The rain should be mostly on the scattered and light side through most of the day, with an overall 40% chance of rain at any given time and location. Highs lift up into the mid-50s and possibly the upper 50s in spots as winds run at 10-15 mph from the south. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Waves of showers and possible thunderstorms offer heavier downpours at times, especially around midnight or later when the chance of rain increases to about 90%. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds. With overall winds from the south continuing, temperatures hold steady in the 50s to make for a very mild night under cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium
Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...
Tomorrow (Wednesday): December starts complicated with a warm morning, more showers and maybe some thunderstorms up through about midday (heavier downpours still possible), and then a blustery mid-to-late afternoon behind a powerful cold front passage. Total event precipitation could reach up to 1-2". Temperatures hold in the 50s in the morning into midday and then downshift by late afternoon. Winds from the northwest at 15-25 mph with even higher gusts feels cold especially by late afternoon into the evening. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow Night: Blustery conditions with falling temperatures lend to a less-than-pleasant evening and overnight period. Lows plummet into the 30s in the city with 20s in the suburbs. Skies begin clearing, especially after midnight. Confidence: Medium
Thursday and Friday are a pair of very similar days with cold winter-like conditions. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to 30s are the rule with partly sunny skies. The one difference is that Thursday sees breezier conditions than Friday due to lingering impacts from Wednesday's wild weather. Confidence: Medium
The weekend at the very highest level point of view should be similar to Thursday and Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the 40s and lows in the cold 20s and 30s. However, we could find ourselves with a little winter weather wrinkle on Saturday night and Sunday if a low pressure manages to swing through our area. The guidance tools that we look at are mixed right now with either no precipitation and only partly cloudy skies or potentially our first snow. There, I said it. Check out the Snow Potential Index (SPI) earlier in this post for our latest feel on the situation. Confidence: Low
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