Howard Bernstein & Topper Shutt winter outlook

B-Roll: Nice new term to place in my personal dictionary!

Too bad La Nina is not the only player in the coming winter weather. But, it makes for excellent fodder for media discussions and presentations (i.e., hype!).

Good post Jason.

Nothing fresh via DCTV Mets. La Nina this, El Nino that, etc. Wasn't it Doug Hill that said he's not going to take the NAO into consideration, thus rendering his views/prediction, void of considering all that goes into a long range prognostication?

Hi stormpc, it is a matter variables and the highest variable this year is La Nina. There are many others to consider during predictions on a seasonal basis. For this year, La Nina is the trump card really. When there is La Nina, NAO/AO, which can still be a small wildcard, is reduced in importance. As we saw last winter during the El Nino scenario... NAO/AO matter a lot more. Variables can shift in importance-level each winter... does that make sense?

Camden, true, but I was specifically mentioning Mr. Hill's reluctance to even explain to the general public how much the NAO/AO can affect even the strongest La Nina, which this is not.

Just an example, From Bloomberg.com (link attached)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/la-nina-cooling-may-mean-more-snow-higher-fuel-prices-for-u-s-.html

"La Nina’s immediate impact on the U.S. Northeast also depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation, a shift in atmospheric pressure, said Tom Downs, a meteorologist at Weather 2000 Inc. in New York.

Air temperature determines whether La Nina systems produce rain or snow, Downs said, and air temperature is largely dependent on the oscillation, which can affect an area from eastern North America to western Europe.

“Last year was a good example where we had an extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation for most of the winter and that allowed for a lot of cold air outbreaks in the eastern third of the nation,” Downs said. “If we had a La Nina in place with that, we could have had a scenario like 1995-1996.”

A record 75.6 inches of snow fell in New York’s Central Park in the winter of 1995-96, when a La Nina combined with a cold phase of the oscillation, according to the National Weather Service.

Keep up the good work Cap Gang...Looking forward to some icy times this year!! Happy Thanksgiving.

I think the odds of getting the 1st inch by Dec 5th is really low this year. While we do have a negative NAO on the progs, the pattern is a far cry from last year as the Pacific remains in such a configuration that most of the storms still look like they will track to our north. None of the 06Z GFS ensemble members showed a storm going to our south before or on 5 Dec and if you look at the 240 hr 06Z run of the GFS or the 240 hour forecast from the ECMWF, their pattern certainly don't look good for snow. Right now, early December is not looking that good even taking into consideration the uncertainty of any forecast at such long time ranges. Plus, the climo probability of getting an inch of snow any day during the 1st 7 days of Dec is only around 15%, 18 cases in 122 years. Wes CWG