Capital Weather Gang: December 19, 2010 - December 25, 2010

Snow may be closer to 3" than 6"

The bottom line is that there is likely to be a sharp gradient with this storm's precipitation field that's very sensitive to the exact track and strength of the low. So it wouldn't take much for us to get more or less than our 3-6" forecast. We're sticking with that 3-6" forecast for the time being.

By Jason Samenow  | December 25, 2010; 10:10 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (115)
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Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory posted; accumulation possible tonight/tomorrow

With the details of this developing storm yet to fully crystallize, one might be tempted to call this a "wait and see" situation. But we do have some confidence that there will be some snow tomorrow, possibly significant, and that conditions will generally deteriorate as you head northeast.

CWG's Accumulation Map & Full Forecast

By Capital Weather Gang  | December 25, 2010; 3:55 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (270)
Categories:  Alerts, Forecasts, Latest, Updates, Winter Storms  
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Update: Still big range in Sunday snow potential

There has been a slight backing off in the snow amounts forecast by some of the model guidance late this morning. As we've been discussing for several days now, this forecast has been extremely difficult and, unfortunately, the benefit of nearing closer to the onset of the storm isn't helping a lot. Based on the latest information, we'll call for a most likely accumulation of 3-6" - with more east of Prince George's county and less west of Fairfax county. However, there is the considerable possibility of other outcomes. By later today, we'll try to narrow this down further and put together an accumulation map and timeline.

By Jason Samenow  | December 25, 2010; 1:15 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (83)
Categories:  Latest, Updates, Winter Storms  
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Update: Winter storm watches extended west

The entire metro region - including western suburbs such as Loudoun, Fauquier and Frederick counties - are now under the winter storm watch Sunday and Sunday night. The light snow falling this morning, likely to produce only a dusting or so, is not part of the storm expected tomorrow

By Jason Samenow  | December 25, 2010; 10:30 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (70)
Categories:  Latest, Updates, Winter Storms  
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Forecast: Snow likely on Sunday

No white Christmas this year, but we may see a few flakes fall here and there during the day. It's also going to be cloudy and cold with highs in the 30s. All eyes are on tomorrow though as a storm we've been tracking for a week tries to impact on the area. How big an impact? That's a question still to be resolved.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Ian Livingston  | December 25, 2010; 5:45 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (138)
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Winter storm watch Sunday & Sunday night

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. Watch includes entire metro region.

By Jason Samenow  | December 25, 2010; 5:45 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (10)
Categories:  Latest, Winter Storms  
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Sunday snow odds continue to rise

The latest guidance continues to support a storm track closer to the coast (further west), although the models have yet to reach consensus on how much precipitation will make it into the metro region. In light of the latest model trends, we now believe there is a 50-60 percent chance of at least 1", and about a one in three chance of more than four inches.

By Jason Samenow  | December 24, 2010; 11:30 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (61)
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Update: Bumping up Sunday snow odds

Model guidance this afternoon has shifted the track of the developing storm on Sunday slightly west and closer to the coast. As a result, we think there is a better chance the metro region sees accumulating snow than we did just a few hours ago.

By Jason Samenow  | December 24, 2010; 5:30 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (75)
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Weekend snow threat still slight

It's tempting to throw in the towel for the prospects of meaningful snow this weekend, but we're holding off. Enough uncertainty remains with respect to how this storm will evolve that we can't yet entirely rule out some snow.

By Jason Samenow  | December 24, 2010; 12:43 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (36)
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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A look back at big Christmas snows in D.C.

While it doesn't look like much snow, if any, will fall this Christmas...let's take a look back at some of the biggest December 25 snows... The largest storm on Dec. 24 or 25 was one which ended, and dropped most of its snow on, Christmas Eve in 1966.

By Ian Livingston  | December 24, 2010; 10:45 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (8)
Categories:  History, Latest, Local Climate  
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Forecast: Continued wintry. Weekend snow?

Christmas Eve is thankfully calm weather-wise around here, and for all of the East Coast for that matter. Wind that has been pestering us all month long continues, but it's lighter than yesterday and mixed with chilly but not frigid temperatures. There's some good news! Oh, that weekend snow threat? It's still giving us a few headaches, though odds of much are low.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Camden Walker  | December 24, 2010; 5:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (36)
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PM Update: Winds to reluctantly relent

Temperatures cracked the 40-degree mark for the third straight day, but you wouldn't have known it with today's raging winds. Gusts neared or topped 40 mph at all three area airports. These winds only very gradually settle down tonight through tomorrow while temperatures remain wintry but not bitter.

CWG's Detailed Forecast

By Jason Samenow  | December 23, 2010; 3:45 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (29)
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Odds of major storm shrinking. Any snow at all?

The odds of getting a major storm this Christmas weekend have diminished - it's looking more and more like the storm will be a glancing blow or a miss.

By Wes Junker  | December 23, 2010; 1:15 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (69)
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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The National Christmas Tree with snow

Every time it does snow in December, which has become more common over the past decade, I try to get out to photograph the National Christmas Tree and/or Capitol Christmas Tree with snow. I've been out photographing the trees with snow in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010.

By Kevin Ambrose  | December 23, 2010; 10:30 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (8)
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Forecast: Windy but plenty of sun

Who cares about the next few days of seasonably chilly weather?! The real focus of travelers and snow lovers alike is the potential Sunday snowstorm. The question is not whether there will be a strong nor'easter but whether the storm hugs the coast and throws heavy snows across the region or is too far out to sea and manages nothing more than flurries.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By David Streit  | December 23, 2010; 5:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (84)
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Late night storm thoughts

I'm trying something new tonight: I'll post quick thoughts as the different computer models stream in as well as other odds and ends (about every 15-30 minutes). Keep your finger near the refresh button... 1:15 a.m. update: European model a tad more out to sea and not as intense as...

By Jason Samenow  | December 23, 2010; 1:15 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (50)
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California storm may bring South Christmas snow

For the past week, the precipitation has just kept coming and coming and coming into central and southern California. We've discussed the snow in the Sierra Nevada, reaching peak depths of 16 feet near Mammoth Mountain - after another one to two feet today. In the southern California, the onslaught of storms has produced record rains, flooding, and mudslides. But what happens when some of the energy from the Express emerges in the south central U.S. and Southeast Christmas Eve and Christmas day, and runs into unusually cold air?

By Jason Samenow  | December 22, 2010; 7:00 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (13)
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PM Update: Winds set to whip up

High temperatures near normal? It's been a while, but we got there with readings in the low-and-mid 40s today. Unfortunately, it's fleeting and strong cold winds are about to return. Be prepared to hang on to your hat on Thursday and also plan to bundle up as wind chills make highs largely in the 30s feel much colder.

CWG's Detailed Forecast

By Ian Livingston  | December 22, 2010; 3:40 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (9)
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Sunday storm could be big hit or big miss

Remarkably, the images of snow that seemed to be emanating from Snow Lover's Crystal Ball are not as clear as it looked this time on Monday even though we are creeping up on weekend. For a lot of people trying to plan holiday travel, let us preface this by saying we fully recognize that our forecast - which leaves open the possibilities ranging from a dusting to a blizzard -- may not be terribly helpful. Yes, we know it's the kind of prediction that forecasters get made fun of for.

By Wes Junker and Jason Samenow  | December 22, 2010; 1:15 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (155)
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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Year in pictures: Submit your 2010 weather photos

It's that time of year again to showcase this year's weather in photos! There are two categories: Snowmageddon and Other Weather. Each person may submit no more than one relevant photo to each category (for a total of two possible per person). Email your submissions to weathergang@wpni.com. We'll pick our favorites to post right here on the Weather Gang blog.

By Ann Posegate  | December 22, 2010; 10:30 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (7)
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Forecast: Cold through Christmas. Will it be white?

It may not be what you'd call "bitter" cold. But it has been a consistent, heavy-winter-jacket-required cold. There's no immediate end to the cold in sight, at least not through Christmas weekend. Speaking of which, the holiday snow threat continues to be a wait-and-see situation.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Dan Stillman  | December 22, 2010; 5:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (73)
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Weekend storm: Glancing blow or blizzard?

The images above show the latest simulations for the potential weekend (extending into Monday for the European model) storm from the most recent operational versions of the GFS (American) and European computer models. The GFS model (run this afternoon) indicates very light snow Christmas afternoon and evening with the modest storm mostly going out to sea. The European model (run this morning) simulates the same system as a full-fledged blizzard Sunday into Monday.

By Jason Samenow  | December 21, 2010; 7:45 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (70)
Categories:  Winter Storms  
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PM Update: Cold transitions to cool

For the first time in more than a week, we escaped the 30s. But the (unofficial) high of 41 is still four degrees below average. We remain locked in a cold pattern which shows no immediate sign of meaningfully relaxing. As such, a chilly evening and Wednesday lie ahead.

CWG's Detailed Forecast

By Jason Samenow  | December 21, 2010; 3:45 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (15)
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Poll: A white Christmas or not?

There are several scenarios for winter weather this holiday weekend. What do you think will happen?

By Jason Samenow  | December 21, 2010; 2:40 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (22)
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White Christmas odds good, not yet great

There's little doubt that a storm, originating from the Pacific (and dumping heavy rain and snow there), will cut across the southern United States Thursday and Friday arriving in the Southeast. Plenty of cold air should be in place for any precipitation that reaches the metro region to fall as snow. The big question is how much moisture and precipitation will, in fact, reach the area Christmas Day.

By Jason Samenow  | December 21, 2010; 1:45 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (103)
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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Christmas snow statistics for the D.C. area

Since we're tracking the potential of snow on Christmas, a look at what we've seen in the past is in order. While D.C. is not the place to be historically if you're hoping to see a white Christmas or snow falling on that day, it has happened, with even a moderate storm or two in the books.

By Ian Livingston  | December 21, 2010; 10:30 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (12)
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Forecast: Partly sunny with persistent cold

Our balance-of-week weather is being driven by two factors: consistent cold flow from the northwest and intermittent cloud cover from Pacific disturbances. The result is consistent colder-than-normal temperatures right up to Christmas Eve and variable sky conditions (but no precipitation is expected). We continue to monitor the chance of snow around Christmas.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Matt Rogers  | December 21, 2010; 5:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (53)
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Mammoth snow: 13+ feet in four days

Since Friday, the storm total is 9 feet to 13 1/2 feet of snow! Mammoth received 32" of snow in the last 24 hrs and is expecting at least another 1-2 feet throughout today. This storm has broken the record of the snowiest December ever recorded since first recording in 1969! Mammoth has also just been named to having the most snow in the World by SkiInfo.com!

By Jason Samenow  | December 20, 2010; 7:00 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (16)
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PM Update: Chilly lunar eclipse viewing

Winter arrives tomorrow, but we've already been dealing with wintry temperatures for some time now. Today's highs in the mid-and-upper 30s almost felt like a reprieve. That is, if the wind was not keeping wind chills lower. The good news: lunar eclipse fans shouldn't have to battle sky conditions too much overnight -- just bundle up!

CWG's Detailed Forecast

By Ian Livingston  | December 20, 2010; 3:30 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (15)
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White Christmas dream *could* come true

If you've been dreaming of a white Christmas, this might be your year. Computer models are forecasting that an area of low pressure will track across the country with plenty of cold air feeding it. The low will pass to our south and be somewhere off the coast of North Carolina by sometime early Christmas morning setting the stage for the possibility of a white Christmas.

By Wes Junker  | December 20, 2010; 1:00 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (46)
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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Freak pattern brings Europe record cold & snow

One of the things that makes tracking the weather so interesting is that even though conditions may be boring where you live, they're bound to be extreme somewhere else. The 2010-2011 meteorological winter (which started Dec. 1) has been no exception to this rule so far. Although Washington hasn't seen any "Snowmageddon"-style storms so far this winter, Europe has been slammed by relentless assaults of bitter cold and heavy snowfalls. So what has been causing this freak winter weather onslaught in Europe, and the colder-than-average conditions in much of the eastern U.S., including Washington?

By Andrew Freedman  | December 20, 2010; 10:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (35)
Categories:  Climate Change, Freedman, International Weather, Latest, News & Notes  
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Forecast: Cold week with Christmas snow risk

It's another cold and windy week ahead but we're getting pretty used to it. We're averaging seven degrees colder than normal this month, and only two days have been warmer than average. Cold and mainly dry weather persists through Thursday before a possible winter storm Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Jason Samenow  | December 20, 2010; 5:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (19)
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Rare Christmas snow potential emerging

The threat for accumulating snow on Tuesday has significantly diminished as it now appears the weak disturbance will pass to our north and not produce much more than light snow or flurries Tuesday afternoon or night. It's unlikely to amount to much (less than 20% chance of an inch) and may not snow, especially south of the District. However, computer models are converging on a legitimate threat for a winter storm starting Christmas Eve and continuing into Christmas Day.

By Jason Samenow  | December 19, 2010; 12:00 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (53)
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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Forecast: More 30s. Touch of Tues. snow?

The storm that once threatened to aim for the D.C. area passes harmlessly out to sea today, resulting in a farily nice, albeit cold, shopping day. The cold isn't going away anytime soon, which paves the way for a chance of light snow on Tuesday. Could Christmas bring a snowy surprise as well?

CWG's Express & Detailed Forecast

By Brian Jackson  | December 19, 2010; 5:00 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (14)
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