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Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 12/14/2010

Double trouble? Tracking two snow threats

By Jason Samenow

After taking a look at the latest computer model simulations, it's time to dust off the 'ole Snow Lover's Crystal Ball (SLCB). As a reminder, we issue the SLCB when we identify at least a 30% chance for accumulating snow (of at least 1") more than one or two days away. In today's edition, we have two events that meet that criteria - one Thursday and one Sunday. The Sunday event has the potential to be the bigger snow producer of the two.

Let's break both threats down...

First accumulating snow chance: Thursday
Probability of accumulating snow (1" or more): 30%
Maximum accumulation potential: Around 3"
Discussion/possibilities: As Wes discussed yesterday, the Thursday storm is likely to be a weak one, that passes by to our south. The latest NAM model keeps all snow south of Fredericksburg, Va. whereas the GFS model has a ribbon of light snow reaching into the metro region - perhaps enough to produce an inch or two. If the storm were to trend north, it might be a 1-3" type event. On the other hand, it might completely miss. I tend to favor the scenario of us getting a little light snow, but due to its day time timing and primarily light intensity, having a tough time squeezing out an inch. More tomorrow.

gfs1219-121410.gif
GFS model valid Sunday morning (Dec. 19) simulates a classic coastal storm spreading heavy snow over the mid-Atlantic.

Second accumulating snow chance: Saturday night/Sunday
Probability of accumulating snow (1" or more): 30%
Maximum accumulation potential: 6"+
Discussion/possibilities: The latest GFS model simulates a major to crippling East Coast snowstorm for Sunday. However, as is to be expected this far away from a potential event, the suite of available computer models has not come into consensus for this event. Some show a strong East Coast storm, others push the energy that would generate a storm out to sea, while others do something in between. As Wes discussed yesterday, the key for the storm's development will be whether the northern and southern branches of jet stream come together at the right place at the right time for a storm to develop and track up the East Coast. These details are unknowable at this point, but will come into better focus in the next two days. The bottom line is that overall pattern supports a greater than average chance of a big storm, but that chance is still less than 50/50.

Just as it would've been premature to give up on the storm yesterday when models were trending away from the storm, it would be premature to get overly excited/alarmed over the latest GFS model run. Wes Junker will provide a detailed technical analysis of the situation tomorrow.

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | December 14, 2010; 12:45 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Recap: Lake enhanced snow streamers dust D.C.
Next: PM Update: Frigid through tomorrow

Comments

My heart did a little jump when I spotted the SLCB. It was like seeing an old friend after a long time. C'mon, snow!!

Posted by: scienceteacher3 | December 14, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

The December 19th storm on the GFS looks very similar to the last year's Dec 19th blizzard. I remember in the days prior to the storm the models were very inconsistent and either showed a big storm or took it out to sea. I hope this verifies so we have a white christmas.

Posted by: ajmupitt | December 14, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Welcome back SLCB! :)

Posted by: JTF- | December 14, 2010 1:01 PM | Report abuse

I have travel plans Monday and I know my cul de sac won't get plowed in time to meet them... but I still can't help but get excited!

Posted by: megamuphen | December 14, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

PANIC, or not.

Posted by: oldtimehockey | December 14, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

U better get this 4cast prefect or Tom-Fx. will b very upset.
Hoping the F'burg area gets the bulls eye on Thurs. 2-3" would b nice. Sun also looking a little better, I'll now go with a 35% chance of a decent snow. Hopefully the models will cont. 2 show snow each passing day.
Please end the wind by Fri. I'm planning on striper fishing at the 301 Bridge power plant.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 14, 2010 1:14 PM | Report abuse

4 some reason I'm still having trouble with double posts.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 14, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

...gasp...! uncapped potential: 6"+, they said.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 14, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

AWESOME!

Posted by: Rcmorgan | December 14, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

If I remember correctly, it wasn't until the 17th of December until things got relatively certain there was going to be a major storm on the 19th of Dec, 2009, that was a Thursday. ( I love the CWG archives) It's fun to go back and look, and especially now considering these 2 storms look similar.

Posted by: jrodfoo | December 14, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

And if we forgot what last December 19th looked like - well....here ya go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzQhWTJhn44

BRING IT!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!!!

Posted by: greg2010 | December 14, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Snowpocalypse II!!!!

Posted by: cassander | December 14, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

EEEEEP! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let there be lots of snow!!!

Posted by: kmill67 | December 14, 2010 1:53 PM | Report abuse

EEEEEP! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let there be lots of snow!!!

Posted by: kmill67 | December 14, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

Thanks CWG in general and Jason specifically for another great write-up. I laughed when I saw part about jet streams in this post! Yesterday when I complimented Wes for explaining the bases for predicting snowstorms in such a clear, interesting way, I thought about how I always had no idea what forecasters were talking about when they discussed jet streams while flailing their arms at the sportcasters. Here, Jason has explained those jetsters' roles in a great way. Either TV is a poor medium to explain how weather happens, or CWG is full of much more skilled teachers...I'm going with the latter!

Posted by: kolya02 | December 14, 2010 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Please dont' tell me we are going to start having an annual "Weekend of December 19th snowstorm". If this is the case, I will be moving my annual trip to Las Vegas from the weekend of 12/3 to the weekend of 12/19.

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | December 14, 2010 2:07 PM | Report abuse

You said "The bottom line is that overall pattern supports a greater than average chance of a big storm, but that chance is still less than 50/50."

Can you please explain this line? How do you define an 'average' chance?

Posted by: krishnanswamy | December 14, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Just want to say that I applaud the addition of Wes's insight to this site. He does an excellent job of breaking down the models.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 14, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Bring it!

Posted by: DCFanatic | December 14, 2010 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Ah! There it is. Now it's winter :D

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 14, 2010 2:27 PM | Report abuse

I like that 30%.

Posted by: ennepe68 | December 14, 2010 2:34 PM | Report abuse

I can't get to Fort Lauderdale fast enough! Come on Thursday! No snow so I can get the heck out of here for three weeks!

Posted by: mjwies11 | December 14, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

@krishnanswamy

On average, we get an inch or more of snow the week before Christmas just once every four or five years. So - the average chance of getting a "big" storm around this time of year is really low. But right now the pattern (jet stream set up) is pretty favorable. Even so, it's still really hard to get all of the ingredients to materialize.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 14, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

I'm dreaming of a White Xmas.......
And I have a brand new snow shovel. Bring it on.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 14, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

I have a job interview on Friday morning so please don't let the snow be a big deal okay? However, please let it crush us on Sunday...now that you have my requests in hand, please manipulate the various computer models to fit my needs.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | December 14, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Some of use the SLCB to gauge when to buy stuff for chili, cornbread, and brownies. :)

Posted by: mensan98th | December 14, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

If an epic storm materializes on the 19th, I suggest the name "SnowSoon?"

Posted by: Ayrwulf | December 14, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

How About: Not-Snow-Soon.

Posted by: greg2010 | December 14, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

Maybe not a very big deal, but a pretty rare event happened near my house: the ditch across the street flooded a little (which requires a pretty big rain event), then froze, leaving an icy pond. I can only remember that happening a few times in my 19 years here. I guess it's rare to have cold this intense follow heavy rain.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 14, 2010 3:29 PM | Report abuse

is it to early to do the snow dance?:)

Posted by: snowlover31 | December 14, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

weather.com and accuweather have taken away the possibility of all precipitation on thursday...why? If it did snow on sunday...how much? 5-8 inches. or more like 2-4? Thanks CWG

Posted by: fortheglory | December 14, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

kolya02,
i think tv could be a great medium for teaching us about the weather. often when a CWG met is describing something i think, "i wish he could point to what he's talking about". the guys on tv CAN point to things etc... they should be so much better... thast makes your comments about the education/explanations here all the more impressive.

snowlover31,
snow dances are always appropriate. direct your efforts at getting "the northern and southern branches of jet stream [to] come together at the right place at the right time" as jason alludes to above... that appears to be the key.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 14, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Well hopefully the 19th of December can join the 5th as having snow quite often.

Posted by: JW211 | December 14, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Walter in Falls church---

Where did you here about 6+?

Posted by: fortheglory | December 14, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

I hate to be a downer...but it is incorrect to say there is no model agreement; there IS! Almost all agree there will be no storm.

The DGEX, the Canadian, the EURO, the Japanese, NOGAPS...they all say the same thing- storm stays to the south and heads out to sea. Right now, the GFS is the only model I can find that runs the storm up the coast. I hope the GFS is right, but I think the call for a potentially crippling storm is premature given all the models except one say otherwise.

I can't believe I'm writing this...I hate the snow naysayers. Sorry!

Posted by: 4seams | December 14, 2010 3:51 PM | Report abuse

fortheglory,
in jason's post he said:
Maximum accumulation potential: 6"+

i just thought it was kind of funny in that 6"+ could be 50" or 100"...or more.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 14, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Walter in falls church

Thanks... lets hope its more than 6

Posted by: fortheglory | December 14, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Dear CWG,

I love you. I would say I'd keep my love a secret from the old ball and chain, but if the base gets shut down for snow, he'll also declare his love for you. I already have the down comforter, salt, shovel, coffee, cocoa, and cinnamon schnapps, but the liquor store is close to the gas station (and I'm pushing empty) so I'll grab a small bottle of peppermint schnapps and chocolate liquor for the invariable hot chocolate/coffee I'll be making if Sunday turns out right. As it happens, I made a big batch of chili last night and froze half. Your timing is purr-fect.

Yours always,
H-A-W

P.S.
Between us, we all know that meteorology stuff is bs. Just waive your magic weather wand and make it snow buckets on Sunday. (Sunday night would be best)

Posted by: HappyArmyWife | December 14, 2010 4:12 PM | Report abuse

Start that Christmas song with the line *Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow*

Posted by: eabgarnet | December 14, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Is it just that all of you snow lovers never need to travel or prepare to host those who travel to you for the holidays?Or are you just so obsessed with the white stuff that it doesn't matter? Some of you are worse than cocaine addicts!

Last winter demonstrated this area is completely and utterly incompetent when it comes to snow removal and road treatment, so 6+ inches on the 19th means delayed travel (or cancelled holiday travel) for many for Xmas, especially those who planned their trips for the 20th or 21st.

So, to counter all of you snow-dancing folks - BUST BUST BUST!!!

Posted by: getjiggly2 | December 14, 2010 4:31 PM | Report abuse

fortheglory, I just checked and both weather.com and accuweather are still showing a chance of snow for Thursday (at least in Arlington).

Posted by: kmill67 | December 14, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, usually I would be ALL about the snow, but since I'm supposed to be hosting a party that night...maybe not...

Posted by: bachaney | December 14, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Jason, Nice article. I've been out most of the day and didn't look at the models until today. The models remain at odds as you noted. I'll write my two cents worth on the situation tomorrow.

Wes

Posted by: wjunker | December 14, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

kmill67

they must have just changed that. I checked about 10 minutes ago. Thanks

Posted by: fortheglory | December 14, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

4seams


For what it worth, I agree that what agreement there is amongst models, including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, is there will not be a big snowstorm. BUT, it's too early to judge whether no agreement doesn't become all are wrong, just as total agreement would mean they all might be wrong. It's a difficult forecast worthy now (as Jason suggested) of not much more than a stay tuned.

At this time, it's a good setup for either a surprise snowstorm or surprise no snowstorm

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 14, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Fortheglory, no problem. I've been watching snow predictions like a hawk for 2 weeks praying for something sizable so I check all my weather sources. *snow nerd*

Posted by: kmill67 | December 14, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

@greg2010

I'm willing to compromise on: "Not-Snow-Soon"

Or, given the potential for the storm to mark the anniversary of the one last year:

"Snowpocalypse: Part Dew"

Posted by: Ayrwulf | December 14, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Seems like each of these storms is getting blocked to the south...dagger. At least it's REALLY cold :(

Posted by: parksndc | December 14, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Please people, I beg of you all to not wish for snow. My bday is on the 19th. Last year I turned 25 and all my plans were shot due to the first of the blizzards coming through. I was hoping to enjoy my bday this year. I cannot do that if there is another snow storm. So PLEASE NO SNOW!!! (well if there is snow, allow for those of us who drive mustangs to get around).

Posted by: antztaylor | December 14, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

This forcast looks very familar from the forcast a year ago.

From December 14th, 2009-

"It remains chilly over the weekend as some reinforcing shots of cold air drop southward, possibly (30% chance) accompanied by some snow showers or flurries. We'll also have to watch to see if any coastal storminess develops, but that's a low probability at this point. Highs both days should be around 40 with overnight lows in the 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium"

Hmmmm, 30% chance of snow for December 19th froma a year ago. Just like today's forcast for the weekend!

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 14, 2010 5:50 PM | Report abuse

CWG,
is there something to what 4seams is saying about the model disagreement? is that why you're only saying it's only a 30% chance?

bachaney you said,
"Yeah, usually I would be ALL about the snow, but since I'm supposed to be hosting a party that night...maybe not..."

how far are people coming from? maybe your party turns into a winter snow party of neighbors. or maybe the guests all sleep over? or...more likely, it turns out it partly cloudy and 40 degrees sunday...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 14, 2010 5:55 PM | Report abuse

2cubscapsfan, I like the way you think! It's that time of the year that I become a model junkie. GFS, NAM, etc., don't update more often! Go snow!!

Posted by: snowlover | December 14, 2010 5:55 PM | Report abuse

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: fortheglory | December 14, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

The 18Z GFS still very persistent in showing a snow storm this weekend. Such consistency has to count for something; if the other models start to come around to more northerly solution to the weekend storm, even if slightly, I would bet money they fall like dominoes in line with the GFS. Just my guess...

Posted by: 4seams | December 14, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

18z GFS still looks great for east coast snowstorm from Virginia to Maine. DGEX model is starting to come on board with GFS. This looks all too familiar with Dec 19th event last year.

Posted by: StormChaserMan | December 14, 2010 6:13 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

Yes...there is something to what 4seams says... although 18z GFS continues to show threat as did many of the 12z GFS ensembles. The other models are mostly a miss, but some not by far.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 14, 2010 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Al Gore totally lied to us....

Posted by: pmendez | December 14, 2010 6:17 PM | Report abuse

Wow! I just looked at updated models, and while the DGEX, Euro, NOGAPS, and Candian models still don't show the storm quite like the GFS, every single one of them has gone to a more northerly solution instead of flattening out the low and throwing it out to sea! Once this happens, they tend to continue shifting more north and west in line with the model (in this case, the GFS) that has been on the idea for days.

Good news for snow lovers!

Posted by: 4seams | December 14, 2010 6:20 PM | Report abuse

stormchaserman-0

I agree, it looks eerily similar right now. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it is quite a coincidence.

Posted by: 4seams | December 14, 2010 6:24 PM | Report abuse

It'd be a shame if on Sunday all that snow is wasted on the Atlantic...

Posted by: nlcaldwell | December 14, 2010 6:55 PM | Report abuse

*grins* I promised I wouldn't start with the snow wishing in December this year, but I just can't help it.
Okay so I, too, always read Jason's name as Samesnow all winter long and even into the summer. In fact, I didn't even notice it was Samenow until last spring.
And to "HAW", please post your recipes for the cinnamon schnapps and cocoa stuff. Yum.

Posted by: manassasmissy | December 14, 2010 6:58 PM | Report abuse

The GFS is sure a juicy (read: friendly to snow lovers) scenario right now. Even the NAM at 84 hrs looks a lot like the GFS at that time frame. Unfortunately, most of the other models are suppressing the storm to the south and keeping it too far out in the Atlantic to have much of a precipitable impact on our area. Not very good news for snow lovers. On the positive side, we still have a lot of time to find out which models are correct. The next 24 to 48 hours should (but not necessarily) give us a much better scenario for this late weekend storm. Hopefully the late night model runs tonight will help focus the storms track and potential QPF. Too much of a western shift could introduce a mix of precipitation types. Not what snow lovers want.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | December 14, 2010 7:34 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

Great points. If the retired athletes-turned-commentators can act out plays during broadcasts, why shouldn't mets show more of the how/why behind their forecasts on air? In any case, I love when ppl don't give up on learning and show interest in the reasoning behind life well beyond their schooling years, and CWG is doing a great job promoting this!

...I like your suggestions for bachaney; there's nothing better than a warm cozy party with the outside blanketed in white! In the US, though, (Unfortunately??) our architects have built our cities since the 50s in the exurb/suburb layout style, meaning no one lives near the city centers, let alone each other! bachaney's friends likely live far from next door to her, so I'm guessing this is why she's hoping against snow

Posted by: kolya02 | December 14, 2010 7:45 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

sadly, most of the guests are coming from outside our immediate area (downtown baltimore) and likely wouldn't come if the weather was bad. there's barely anywhere to park without snow...with snow, it's impossible!

I have a very good friend whose birthday is the 18th. he's puerto rican, and not such a snow fan, so if he gets snowed out two years in a row, he won't be happy.

[typing this discouragement is killing the snow lover in me. KILLING!]

Posted by: bachaney | December 14, 2010 8:00 PM | Report abuse

I always see the word 'snow' in Jason's last name too.

I have my chili spices at the ready. I will be watching things closely the next few days to determine what other things are required. Chocolate in several varieties is a no brainer regardless of snowfall, but there are many other things to consider. What goes in the cart correlates directly to amount of snow, or lack thereof. I may have to eat my feelings if we wind up snowless.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 14, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

You know, it sounds like all of you snow freaks are about twelve years old.

Does anyone remember that when we have whopping snow storms around here -- because we really, really don't have any coherent system for dealing with it -- someone DIES? Someone spins out in their car, or gets killed in a house fire, or mowed down by someone who can't wait for snow-slowed traffic (that happened last year.) Why is this so much fun?

I don't make a living if the roads are snow locked, and I have a 22 year old car and can't afford a new one. I don't see what all the cheering and dancing is about.

Posted by: Hyperlocal | December 14, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

Any new updates on the models?

Posted by: samd95 | December 14, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

@ Hyperlocal...it's about enjoying nature and enjoying something that breaks up the monotony of life. People also die from wet roads, but we need rain to keep the plants alive. Obviously even for us snow lovers, the snow presents difficulties in getting around that are aggravating, but if you plan right you should be fine. If you hate snow that much, you could move to Florida.

Posted by: rocotten | December 14, 2010 10:27 PM | Report abuse

Hyperlocal, you're free to dislike snow. I think we all get your reasons. However, your experience is not everyone's experience. And in D.C., you'll get your wish 97% of the time. But for the other seven days a year, maybe you could let the snow lovers have their (minimal) days.

Posted by: BShea821 | December 14, 2010 10:37 PM | Report abuse

You know, it's amazing how whenever I say I dislike something, whether it's my county's development policies or people who have childish attitudes about weather, someone pipes up and suggests that I move out of the area. Is it so upsetting to hear someone talk common sense to you that you have to tell them they ought to move away?

Yes, snow is pretty and change can be pleasant, but the price is too high to carry on like children wanting the BIGGEST SNOWSTORM EVER. Grow up, people.

Posted by: Hyperlocal | December 14, 2010 10:47 PM | Report abuse

bachaney,
tell your friend to move his birthday to july. we've got to take these snow chances whenever they present themselves...

Hyperlocal,
so, you say people die when it snows, huh? they die when it doesn't snow too... they die in cold weather, in rainy weather and in hot weather.

i wonder how the number of driving deaths during a snowstorm in washington compares to a "normal" day. i wouldn't be surprised if it's lower - because less people are out driving, and those that are driving are driving slowly.

can any of you google-savants tease out this data?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 14, 2010 10:51 PM | Report abuse

I don't know for sure Walter, but I'm pretty sure that homicide levels were WAY DOWN in the district during the storms last season! So that's something, at least!

Posted by: megamuphen | December 14, 2010 10:57 PM | Report abuse

@Hyperlocal: Typical old fogey logic! Reality trumps optimism every time! This phrase fits any of your pessimistic outlooks--->
"Yes, [ ] is pretty and change can be pleasant, but the price is too high [and it's too risky] to ...want [something better/nicer/different]." Have you any excited hope left in your body?? It's what keeps most of us going every day, and surely it's why we're all shaking with child-like awe at the thought of this snowstorm!

Posted by: kolya02 | December 14, 2010 11:24 PM | Report abuse

It is only a model, one model, and just a little too far out to sea, but hello friend: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_102.shtml

Posted by: ArlingtonWeather | December 14, 2010 11:25 PM | Report abuse

Im pretty sure EVERY model has this weekends storm too far east now. I guess the EURO tonight will be a huge factor.

Posted by: KRUZ | December 14, 2010 11:30 PM | Report abuse

That OOZ GFS really suprised alot of ppl on the inets. With each passing model I hear that NSYNC song that all the girls liked when I was a teenager.... BYE BYE BYE ;)

Posted by: KRUZ | December 14, 2010 11:34 PM | Report abuse

When does the EURO come out?

Posted by: megamuphen | December 14, 2010 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Models do seem to be trending away from a big coastal but I think we need to watch at least another day of runs before writing this off. It's pretty close and even if it takes a more progressive, out-to-sea track, could still get some lighter snows from it.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 14, 2010 11:41 PM | Report abuse

Normally, I would be with the snow lovers, but I leave for vacation next Thursday. Major snow so close to Christmas travel time is not fun for many people. I want the snow to stay far away from me until after January 1st. After that...fine with me.

Posted by: Warrenton540 | December 14, 2010 11:49 PM | Report abuse

snow showers and 1-3 inches is alot better than 5 -8 inches and especially 12"+

We already had our december 19th snow storm.... Last december, time to go back to normal.

Posted by: KRUZ | December 15, 2010 12:00 AM | Report abuse

@megamuphen

The Euro doesn't come out until after 1:30 a.m. Doubt many (sane) folks will be staying up for that :) Check back in the morning.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2010 12:03 AM | Report abuse

Big snow 4 Sun is certianly looking less likely at this time, of course, it's still 96+ hrs away & things can change.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 15, 2010 12:31 AM | Report abuse

Hyperlocal-
Your "common sense" is what makes snow dangerous around these parts. You, and many in this area, hope it doesn't snow and then are helpless when it does*. Wise up. The only reason snow is dangerous around here is because the localities are in denial about the frequency and severity of snow events. It snows here - frequently and significantly. Learn to deal with it or move, wuss.

*Last year, I remember hearing suburbanites complain to the press about the power being out and worrying the food in their fridges and freezers spoiling. Seriously! They were worried about their frozen food thawing when there was 2' of snow outside. Fridges used to be called "iceboxes" for a reason!

Posted by: mason08 | December 15, 2010 12:45 AM | Report abuse

@Jason

You don't know how insane some of us can be :)

Posted by: tengoalyrunr30 | December 15, 2010 1:26 AM | Report abuse

@mason08 - I don't know if you're just trolling, but on the offchance you aren't -

When the power goes out for 48 hours or more, many/most people lose the heat in their homes - how exactly should they "wise up... and learn to deal with it?" (yes, I know, fireplaces, warm blankets, etc - but that's still not whole-house heat, and is not a long-term solution). It's when your HOUSE becomes the icebox that it becomes a problem. Or should we shell out $10K-$15K for a built-in generator just for winter and the incompetence of our public utilities?

And with snow like we had last winter, when it took VDOT DAYS to clear the secondary roads, and did a horrible job at that, it's not that easy to just drive to a hotel or a location with power (since if you're out, so are your neighbors in all likelihood.)

You snow-lovers really amuse me. Maybe you all should move NORTH - the frozen tundra of Canada would probably make you a lot happier. The Mid-Atlantic is not supposed to be Minnesota, and it does not usually snow here "frequently and significantly" - this is NOT Rochester, NY (which, incidentally, is much better equipped to handle a winter like we had last year than this area EVER will be - I should know, I spent quite a bit of time there).

And, last but not least, while I'm perfectly capable of driving in 6"+ of snow (grew up with it every winter) - 90% of the people out there on the road with me are not. That's why our roads and interstates look like a demolition derby whenever we get one of these crippling snowstorms. So how exactly should we "learn to deal with it"? Teach that other 90% how to drive in the white stuff?

/rant

Posted by: nocando | December 15, 2010 8:25 AM | Report abuse

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