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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 12/22/2010

Forecast: Cold through Christmas. Will it be white?

By Dan Stillman
Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Might we reach or top 40 for a 2nd straight day? Would be a small victory amidst consistent cold.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurry? Upper 30s to near 40. | Tonight: Clearing skies. Mid-to-upper 20s. | Tomorrow: Breezy. Mid-to-upper 30s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

It may not be what you'd call "bitter" cold. But it's been a consistent, heavy-winter-jacket-required cold. Yesterday was just the third time since Dec. 5 that the temperature at Reagan National eclipsed 40 (the high was 41), which is impressive considering the normal high for the same period is 45-50. Unfortunately for warm-weather fans, there's no immediate end to the cold in sight, at least not through Christmas weekend into early next week. Speaking of Christmas, the holiday snow threat continues to be a wait-and-see situation.

Snow Potential Index: 5 (→) - Still looking at approx. 50/50 chance of weekend snow. Lack of model consensus means low forecast confidence.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Wednesday): Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, some spots could get to 40 but it would be just barely. We'll go with a general upper 30s to near 40 for highs with fairly light winds from the northwest. A little upper-level disturbance could give someone a stray snow flurry. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: A breeze from the northwest picks up as skies clear. Lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend, including the latest on the chance of snow on or around Christmas...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Partly to mostly sunny skies are no match for the cold and wind, which both kick it up a notch. Highs stall in the mid-to-upper 30s, and 15-20 mph winds from the northwest (with gusts near 25-30 mph) keep wind chills mainly in the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear with lingering breezes and lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Despite the cold, Friday gets the holiday weekend off to a decent start. Winds should relax and skies should be at least partly sunny as highs reach the mid-30s to near 40. Clouds may begin to increase Friday night (Christmas Eve) with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium

With the models suggesting anything from no snow to a lot of snow this Christmas weekend, we remain steady with a 50/50 chance of accumulating snow and highs probably no higher than the low-to-mid 30s. Timing for snow could be as early as Saturday (Christmas) through as late as early Monday, with the best chance being Saturday night and Sunday.

To be clear, all options - no snow, a light coating, a few inches, or a major storm of 6" or more - remain on the table. Based on how the models have evolved the past few days, and on the trend shown by the last couple of storms to impact or threaten the area, a major storm may be the least likely of the options, because as the storm's low-pressure center passes to the south it may not intensify and move northward until it's too far off the coast. That said, it's still too early to rule out any of the options. Confidence: Low

By Dan Stillman  | December 22, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Weekend storm: Glancing blow or blizzard?
Next: Year in pictures: Submit your 2010 weather photos

Comments

This morning's "5:00 AM" post wasn't available (at least for me) until around 5:45...

Posted by: hawknt | December 22, 2010 5:54 AM | Report abuse

Our cold air is slowly but steadily wearing out. It didn't even get below 35 tonight! No way the high will be just 38.

Posted by: HenryFPotter | December 22, 2010 6:35 AM | Report abuse

Why's it so "warm" this morning? 33 degrees at 6am at Dulles Airport? That's been our high lately -- if we even make it that high. All the forecasts (including yours) were calling for the low to mid 20's for the western suburbs. What caused it to stay above freezing overnight? Not that I'm complaining. I hate the cold.

Posted by: rwalker66 | December 22, 2010 6:37 AM | Report abuse

Rwalker: looks like the cloud cover kept things toasty.

Posted by: JTF- | December 22, 2010 7:06 AM | Report abuse

Lets see based on my records Dec 09 and Dec 10 have been colder to much colder than normal out here in the valley. just happy I am not dealing with over 2ft like we were last Dec.

So where is this Global Warming that everyone is upset about? Sounds like a scam lets meat in Cancun the end of Nov to discuss. Yeah Cancun the end of Nov!

A frind of mine who has Phd on the subject and teaches at VA university said after global warming comes a big ice age! Cant win. So I guess I continue to feed my pregnant ewes their special organic hay that causes them to pass more gas but produces healthier happier lambs.

Does the Capital Weather Gang want to come over in the Spring when we neuter the ram lambs the ole fashioned way?

Posted by: sheepherder | December 22, 2010 7:34 AM | Report abuse

It's starting to look more and more like there are two options for this weekend, one is out to sea to the south with a dusting to an inch or two as the energy moves through. Second is the southern storm turns north and we get pasted.

HenryFPotter is right, the really cold air is gone, we used it all up and it's been replaced with warmer Atlantic air (that Europe would love to have right now). See http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.gif

Posted by: eric654 | December 22, 2010 7:40 AM | Report abuse

Am i reading this right that the National Hydrometerological Center Thinks the EURO blizzard is the MORE LIKELY outcome than the GFS out to sea suggestion?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

Posted by: realclear | December 22, 2010 7:56 AM | Report abuse

realclear, their scenario sounds an awful lot like last Feb 5.

Posted by: eric654 | December 22, 2010 8:11 AM | Report abuse

Wishy washy!

- Ray

Posted by: rmcazz | December 22, 2010 8:11 AM | Report abuse

realclear -

I agree 100% wow. Reading that discussion on NCEP was pretty cool and exciting. Interesting language they are using there and seems much more on-board with a big storm than NWS, CWG, local TV Mets.

I really like the way they structure their comments mixed in with the model data. Their explanation of the Euro model and why they are placing more weight behind it than the GFS was very insightful. I'm curious as to what CWG thinks of this discussion...?

Me thinks that by tomorrow evening there should be a good handle on what's coming...or so I hope.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 8:22 AM | Report abuse

What do you guys think about the wxrisk.com site? He seems to really enjoy hyping things up.

Posted by: ana_b | December 22, 2010 8:43 AM | Report abuse

@HurricaneSpud

I think the NCEP discussion makes some excellent points BUT a LOT has to come together for the big storm forecast by the Euro model to be right and we're still more than 4 days away. Yes-it's been the most consistent model, but there's so little room for error in its solution that just a slight shift could mean no storm for DC. Until we get some more meaningful agreement from the other models, I'll remain skeptical but watchful.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 8:48 AM | Report abuse

Realclear- saw that too this morning and was wondering the very same thing; big difference between CWG and HPC, and HPC is usually not a hyped-up source. Still pretty early in the game to put out a TPA (toilet paper alert) though. It does seem that the slower this evolves, the more chance for a buckle in the jet. Today's task for me is to look at the position and strength of high pressure to the north for Sunday - the other key ingredient...

Posted by: curtmccormick | December 22, 2010 8:50 AM | Report abuse

@ana_b

The guy who runs wxrisk.com is a very talented forecaster.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 8:51 AM | Report abuse

I really expected the Euro to have relaxed this morning and thrown the low pressure out to sea. It just keeps persistently telling us about Sunday into Monday mayhem. I hope it begins to fall in line with the other models. This is fun!

Posted by: Finn1917 | December 22, 2010 8:59 AM | Report abuse

It's snowing ever so lightly. Tiny little round flakes. And I just saw three turkeys meander through the field, a tom and 2 hens.

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 22, 2010 9:05 AM | Report abuse

Jason -

Thanks for your reply. I presume it is best to be prudent right now, as we are still approx 90 hours out. A blend between GFS and the Euro makes the most sense. And as we speak, they just issued another update at 8:59am over at HPC. Seems to be toning down a tad from the Euro's monster-storm hype and talking more about the GFS. Fun to watch this all come together, nonetheless.

I'm remembering how cool it was for last December's storm...seeing that "eye" on the visible satellite off the OBX coast. That was remarkable and I hope we get that again sometime in the next few years.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 9:11 AM | Report abuse

Jason is indeed watchful.
It looks as if he was up pretty late last night watching those churning weather models.
Don't forget some beauty sleep before your video presentation on this White Xmas countdown, as all eyes will be on ya.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 22, 2010 9:12 AM | Report abuse

Folks - I asked this question in a previous post so forgive me if it was answered already.

Isn't it typical for models to say different things with regards to big snows this far out? How much warning did we have with our blizzards from last year? I don't recall us knowing it would be a significant snow event four days out.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | December 22, 2010 9:12 AM | Report abuse

sheepherder,
you say it's cold where you are now, huh? around the GLOBE it's been pretty gosh darn warm this year:

* For January–October 2010, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F) and tied with 1998 as the warmest January–October period on record.
* The global average land surface temperature for the period January–October was the second warmest on record, behind 2007.
* The global average ocean surface temperature for the period January–October tied with 2003 as the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/10

but let's not let inconvenient facts color your position on an issue...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 22, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

I know it's probably a 1 in 10 chance...but if this comes to pass...whoa nelly!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav_pre.html

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

37 degrees at DCA at 9am, looks like we might actually get consecutive days above 40, had enough of the New England-like December!

also nice to see on weather underground "tomorrow will be 0m 4s LONGER", IAD sunset now 4:51, 4 minutes later than the early December trough - just might make it through another winter

Posted by: TGT11 | December 22, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Hey CWG.

You guys are turning me into a serious weather junkie! I have no idea what I'm gonna do come the Spring! I'm wearing out the refresh icon!

Posted by: retroace | December 22, 2010 9:21 AM | Report abuse

@authorofpoetry

Yes... at this range, and even closer in, models can waver between big storm and no storm. what we try to do is step back from these kinds of fluctuations, and instead focus on whether the larger-scale pattern supports or doesn't support a big storm, no storm, or something in between. also, when operational models show such inconsistency, we look to the ensembles (which are multiple runs, or members, of the same model using slightly different initial conditions) to see how many members support or don't support what a given operational model is saying.

As for last year, I believe there was at least one case where model consensus was strong for a big storm this far out, and at least one case where models were nowhere close to agreement for a big storm this far out. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

I second retroace's sentiments!! I hope WashingtonPost is paying you all big bucks, and that you all become very successful thanks to your energy and knowledge!

...I posit that big, unusual, rare weather events get more refreshes than temperate, comfortable, run-of-the mill weather WELL...at least for THIS guy :D

Posted by: kolya02 | December 22, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

CWG,
wow... this thing is kind of coming together, huh - in an all-or-nothing way. i like the options of a dusting or a big storm. it's unusual that it's the good ol' Good-For-Snow model that's resistant to offering a storm. i saw on the other thread you said the GFS showed 0 precip and the euro showed 1" qpf. wow.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 22, 2010 9:29 AM | Report abuse

authorofpoetry

Go back and look at my comment and links provided last night to previous posts on your question, "Isn't it typical for models to say different things with regards to big snows this far out? How much warning did we have with our blizzards from last year? "

Let me know if you still have questions

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 9:31 AM | Report abuse

@HurricaneSpud

Agree with Jason that HPC makes some good points. And agree with Jason that more meaningful agreement from other models is needed before jumping onboard the Euro solution. What that originial HPC discussion discounts is that the GFS, too, has been consistent in recent runs with pushing the storm too far out to sea. And if you take into account various runs by various models in the past several days, there's been some hint that, just like this past weekend's storm opportunity, the overall pattern may be one that is prone to pushing the storm out to sea.

But, as HPC implies, the Euro has too good a track record to be ignored when we're still 72 hours plus away from potential onset of a storm here.

The short answer to all this: We still don't know. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

Dan - Thanks for that! Good information for a weather novice.

Steve - Thanks. Honestly I forgot under which post I put that question (too much going on to remember these things). Great responses and very helpful!

Posted by: authorofpoetry | December 22, 2010 9:35 AM | Report abuse

I agree with Walter's all-or-nothing especially since this is getting to be southern track (it makes the turn or it misses the turn). I disagree with taking two different types of models, one with a stalled blockbuster, one progressive smaller low missing us, and smoshing them together to make an in-between scenario.

Posted by: eric654 | December 22, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Well if its not going to snow on Christmas eve/Christmas day (the only days that I actually would like for it to snow)then I say the heck with it, it's time for a nice thaw and rain to wash all of this darn salt away!

Posted by: soyboy99 | December 22, 2010 9:40 AM | Report abuse

TPA=Toilet paper alert...LOL!! How appropriate!! No need for all those other abbreviations or forecasts, just post "TPA" & we'll all know to visit the grocery store, liquor store & hunker down for another Snowmageddon!!

Is there a glossary somewhere we could add that to? With all the GFSing & HPCing & whatnot it's hard to keep them all straight, then add in a TPA & I'm all sorts of confused sometimes!

Posted by: wadejg | December 22, 2010 9:48 AM | Report abuse

HurricaneSpud

Keep in mind that the HPC day 5-day forecast ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav_pre.html ) is a single solution out of many possibilities. HPC continues to suffer from the requirement of depicting a single "deterministic" chart without explicit information of uncertainties. The discussion gets into how they weighed models, etc into coming up with this, but the chart in isolation is extremely misleading to users who cannot or wish not to dive into the technical discussion.

If the 5-day chart were, for example, to show alternative storm tracks, you'd see the low in the HPC chart would be on the far left of the likely possibilities.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 9:52 AM | Report abuse

So, if this big storm does come together, how much snow might the DC area receive?

Posted by: FH59312 | December 22, 2010 10:05 AM | Report abuse

CWG,


I recall about a week ago that someone commented on the GFS being typically bullish with predicting snowstorms and the Euro being bearish. Now the Euro is predicting a snowstorm even Bigfoot would fear and the GFS is showing a DC schoolkid's typical Monday morning after putting off the science fair project all weekend (ie lots of hype but no storm), and people are claiming the opposite.

Is there any scientific validity to either claim? Or are both positions based on opinion and gut instinct? If there is a reason to think the GFS typically overestimates the chance of snowstorms, what is it??

Evaluating these models is fascinating. Thanks as always for your great informative posts!

Posted by: kolya02 | December 22, 2010 10:08 AM | Report abuse

Blue Ridge Mtns report east of Front Royal:

28.9F after a low of 27.7. Got some of the tiny round dots/flakes Weathergrrl saw, but no turkeys.

Posted by: spgass1 | December 22, 2010 10:08 AM | Report abuse

Good point, thank you Steve. This is exactly why I enjoy this blog so much - I learn something new every single time I read it.

As someone put it last week, we all love a good weather soap opera. :-)

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 10:11 AM | Report abuse

kolya02

NCEP keeps track of ECMWF and GFS model performance, but I suspect you'll find this way TMI, and only provides overview, not particulars of snowstorm predictions. If you are up to the challenge to make out what you can, go to the sites below. The simple OVERALL message is that the ECMWF model ON AVERAGE comes out somewhat better.

I'm still working on a promised post on verification concepts, procedures, results and interpretation in readily comprehensible terms. Stay tuned, but keeping up with current developments for me takes precedence on focusing on that post

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 10:53 AM | Report abuse

GFS and Euro being so divergent? Oh, the drama!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 22, 2010 10:53 AM | Report abuse

HurricaneSpud and others

In regard to possible storm tracks, the link below shows the GFS Ensemble from last evening. The red line is THE GFS. The ECMWF is not in the envelope of possibilities encompassed by the GFS ensemble - not a good sign for subsequent runs to bring them into closer agreement.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/images/GFS_EPS_Trk.png

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 11:00 AM | Report abuse

12Z GFS model seems to moving somewhat toward the Euro's scenario. It's showing a strong low off Long Island Monday morning. From what I can tell, this scenario is putting it too far out to sea for us to get much, but the charts look a lot more like the Euro that they did at 6Z. Waiting for the ensembles to come out, for my amateur hour probability analysis :)

Posted by: Finn1917 | December 22, 2010 11:22 AM | Report abuse

Has anyone taken a look at the most recent GFS run? It sure has made a big jump toward the Euro. Now, it just has to shift west. Heart attack!

Posted by: Yellowboy | December 22, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, the GFS is definitely on board with the storm, just too far East for us to get much.

Posted by: greg421 | December 22, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Does anyone have this NCEP link that shows the GFS ensemble members? Very cool Steve, I've never seen that particular graphic before. I'll do some additional roaming around the HPC site as well.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 11:49 AM | Report abuse

Interesting. Weather.com JUST updated in the last 10 minutes or so. 70% chance of snow on Dec 26th for 22025 Zip (Dumfries, Va). http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/22025

Must be based off the new GFS?

Posted by: bornin1775 | December 22, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse

This is the situation where forecasters really have to earn their money.

Digging in, its amazing...the GFS model essentially shows (showed?) no storm for us...the Euro was aptly described as "weather-model-p0rn for snow lovers" !

Which one will blink?! Either way it appears Christmas is saved. Nobody REALLY wants a blizzard that day.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | December 22, 2010 12:01 PM | Report abuse

I found it...thanks.

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

i know the "at a glance" graphic isn't CWG's, but do you have any idea why saturday and monday went from those pretty snow clouds (shown last night) to the partly sunny w/dark clouds?

steve, you said,
"The ECMWF is not in the envelope of possibilities encompassed by the GFS ensemble..."

i don't understand this. are you saying the euro track doesn't overlap w/any of those blue gfs ensemble runs out in the atlantic? like the euro shows the track entirely over the east coast, and the gfs goes entirely out to sea?

do the latest latest runs of either model do anything to resolve the "problem"?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 22, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

walter looks as thought the problem has been solved.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_114m.gif

GFS just shifter way west and is now almost in line with the Euro AKA storm riding the coast.

Posted by: KRUZ | December 22, 2010 12:28 PM | Report abuse


Already hit Costco for the $20 snow shovel and 36 tp rolls. Car's gassed up. Fridge is stocked.

Bring it on!

Posted by: Gidgmom | December 22, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse


@Kruz - you are correct sir, 100%.

WOW! I'm sure this happens a lot, but that sure was a big jump to the northwest with the latest GFS run. Each of the last 3 prior updates had been trending further away from the coast. This is a total reversal of trend, and as I know, can change back the other way.

And the plot thickens... muahahaha.

(Dr. Evil laugh)

Posted by: HurricaneSpud | December 22, 2010 12:37 PM | Report abuse

Several of the 12Z GFS ensemble members seem to give a significant event for us. And of course, several don't... :). Maybe what is significant here is that at 6Z, pretty much none did.

Posted by: Finn1917 | December 22, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

But what does "significant" mean? Two years ago I'd have said 6-10 was significant for DC but now my brain jumps to 2 feet. Does anyone have guidance on how much snow to expect?

Posted by: hereandnow1 | December 22, 2010 12:40 PM | Report abuse

thanks guys. but according to that gfs, we get up to .1" qpf = 1" of snow, right? that's not anything like what the euro is saying. so, are you guys just calling this "agreement" because it's so much better than what the last run showed?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 22, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

I have no idea what all those squiggly lines are on the maps. Just riddle me this, Batman ... according to "the latest model", will I be eating 8 pounds of ham all by myself Saturday?

Posted by: blackforestcherry | December 22, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch - personally I was impressed by how much more the latest GFS output resembles the Euro in it's overall appeareance (i.e. with a strong low pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast). I agree that as far as snow goes, the GFS is not yet giving us much at all, and in that respect does not resemble the Euro model.

Posted by: Finn1917 | December 22, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

pretty much walter,

the fact that the gfs actually shows the storm now means that it is slowly trending with the euro. But who knows, this time tomorrow the Euro could end up tracking east and going back ots. If the gfs continues this trend along with the euro sticking to its guns, at this time tomorrow CWG just may be calling this storm.

Posted by: KRUZ | December 22, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

@Walter and blackforest: People are excited because the GFS shifted so suddenly and dramatically. Sure it only gives us a dusting to an inch right now, but if it continues to shift towards the highly consistent European solution, then the folks here at CapWx will feel much more comfortable making a forecast.

Of course everything could change with the model runs later today... but c'est la vie.

Posted by: JTF- | December 22, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

roger that.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 22, 2010 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Oh and the black squiggly lines on the map are isolines, or delineations of barometric pressure. The closer together, the more dramatic pressure differentials and higher winds (e.g. around a powerful hurricane, the line would be very tightly packed). The blue line furthest south on the GFS and NAM models is the general delineation of the rain/snow line.

Posted by: JTF- | December 22, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

The suspense is killing me!!!
Snow or no snow, God bless us everyone!

Posted by: Akabang | December 22, 2010 12:55 PM | Report abuse

I am on the edge of my seat.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 22, 2010 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Don't worry. There definitely will be significant snow. At least a foot. How do I know this? Because I won't be here to see it :(

Posted by: veronica7 | December 22, 2010 1:01 PM | Report abuse

The storm on the NAM at 84 hrs doesn't look like much to me. Is it possible for the storm to simply die out in the hills of Georgia?

Posted by: spgass1 | December 22, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

@spgass: It doesn't look particularly impressive at the same point with the GFS either: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_084l.gif

However, a few dozen hours later and we have a monster. Of course the storm could die out, since the models are always fickle.

Posted by: JTF- | December 22, 2010 1:11 PM | Report abuse

spgass

even if it did die out some in georgia, once it hits that water its game on. and if it rides close enough to the coast, as models are trending towards (at this time) it will bring in enough moisture to bury us.

The only thing that can save us from this storm now is the track. right now the track is looking like a big hit. but anything can happen in the next 20+ gfs runs ;)

Posted by: KRUZ | December 22, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

It looks like the latest Euro is another monster. I think the GFS while not as favorable trended a little towards the Euro!

Posted by: snowedin85 | December 22, 2010 1:25 PM | Report abuse

Euro and GFS runs disagree...in addition the 0Z and 12Z runs are more to be trusted than the 06 and 18Z model runs...they seem to include more datapoints, and may be more accurate.

Right now the bullishness of the Euro vs the GFS seems to make some sort of accumulating snow [on the 26th!] here more likely.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 22, 2010 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Ton's of comments!
I just had a quick question, does anyone keep track of the Potomac River ice cover? I can't recall the river at Georgetown icing over this early in the season and was wondering if we had some kinda ice record going?

Posted by: drewbird911 | December 22, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

BOOM goes the Euro. 1.55" QPF w/ 15-18:1 ratios. Whatcha think about that scenario CWG?

Posted by: worldtraveler | December 22, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

I remember the Potomac being iced over even earlier in December of 1989, then melting around Christmas and being really warm the rest of the winter.

Posted by: br1963 | December 22, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Euro stays with the Monster!!!! GFS trends to Euro! Still 4 Days out, but big storms can be forecasted from this far out, if done with consistency which the Euro is showing...

Posted by: CMan62 | December 22, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Happy Holidays all! Couldn't resist adding my two cents. After nearly 45 years in the weather business, the one thing I've learned is the trend is your friend when it comes to forecasting with the GFS. The Euro may be a snow lovers dream but don't bet the ranch on it!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Jimbo77 | December 23, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

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