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Posted at 5:45 AM ET, 12/25/2010

Forecast: Snow likely on Sunday

By Ian Livingston

Winter storm watch Sunday for around D.C. & east

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Chilly and cloudy. Maybe a few snowflakes to set the Christmas scene? After that, things get interesting.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible. Mid-30s. | Tonight: Cloudy. Light snow risk by sunrise. Mid-to-upper 20s. | Tomorrow: Snow likely. Near 30 to mid-30s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

This time last week we were watching a storm that still had a few question marks involved but ended up having no real impact as it limped to our southeast. Here we are a week later with some similar questions, but this time we're faced with a growing risk of a significant snowstorm and a Winter Storm Watch has been posted along and east of I-95. Meanwhile, there's a chance of a few flakes today, though they should not amount to much of anything other than maybe getting snow lovers in the mood. Merry Christmas!

Snow Potential Index: 6 (↑) - The chance for accumulating snow is up, but there is plenty of uncertainty still for a storm in this range. Do we get just a little or a lot?

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Christmas): By and large, today is just cloudy and chilly. But, seeing as it's Christmas, any snow falling is probably a bonus for those celebrating the day. I'd not bet on much more than conversational activity though. Highs mainly reach the mid-30s. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: We spend part of the night in between energy that brings a snow risk during the day and moisture moving north from the developing coastal storm. There could be a flurry early, then probably just cloudy, but the risk of light snow increases from south to north heading into sunrise. Lows dip into the mid-and-upper 20s. Confidence: Medium

Want more on tomorrow's snow chance? Keep on reading! Also, check in during the day for more updates.

Tomorrow (Sunday): It's not often a next-day forecast is as uncertain as this one, but the picture is becoming clearer. The odds of snow are up, probably 60-70% chance of at least some, and there is also an increased risk of a significant accumulation. Highs should be near 30 and may end up mainly in the 20s if we get good snow, perhaps mid-30s if it's lighter or misses. Winds increase during the day and should be pretty strong by evening. Confidence: Low

Tomorrow Night: If the storm ends up close enough, and we think it does, the risk of snow lingers through the evening. Lows should be fairly uniform in the low-and-mid 20s. Winds also howl as the low continues to explode in intensity, so depending on snowfall it could be pretty dicey out there. Confidence: Low-Medium

Check back during the day for new information, and more detailed snowfall forecasts, as we continue to examine this developing situation.

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday promises to bring strong winds from the northwest thanks to the large storm moving away. Under a variably cloudy sky, highs should shoot for the low-and-mid 30s, potentially slightly warmer or cooler depending on snow cover or lack thereof. It's early to predict peak gusts, but it looks like one of those "near 40 mph" type of days. Confidence: Medium

On Tuesday, we look to start transitioning into what hopefully (I'm ready for a break!) becomes a little warmer stretch of daytime temperatures. High pressure begins to nose in from the west which should help knock winds, increase sunshine, and raise temperatures a bit. Highs head for the mid-30s to around 40. Confidence: Medium

By Ian Livingston  | December 25, 2010; 5:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Winter storm watch Sunday & Sunday night
Next: Update: Winter storm watches extended west

Comments

First!
Merry Christmas everybody! This is certainly great news for snow lovers.

Posted by: CM_in_Fairfax | December 25, 2010 5:11 AM | Report abuse

Merry Christmas!!! Gooo GFS!!!

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 5:16 AM | Report abuse

The NWS has given us a winter storm watch for the possibility of five or more inches of snow for tomorrow morning into tomorrow night!

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 25, 2010 5:17 AM | Report abuse

06z looks like it gets us good!!! GFS thank you for 4 runs that keep gettin better!!! From a flurry to an inch to 2 to 4 now to possibly a foot or more.....snowlovers are you ready?!!! This might be our ONLY BIG ONE this season

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 5:21 AM | Report abuse

whats the chance of that Winter storm Watch being issued a little further west

Posted by: cpm2cv | December 25, 2010 5:26 AM | Report abuse

Man oh Man. This is one heck of a ride. I think someone is going to get a good PhD out of this storm focusing on the lack of predictability in the global models. Also the weather discussion for DC by the NWS showed a great use of ensemble forecasting!

Posted by: where_is_snowmonster | December 25, 2010 5:26 AM | Report abuse

My mom lives in Hagerstown and Im closer to DC...I just told her I would not be shocked that washington co..in md...down thru w va and va western areas get their winter storm watch after the 6z GFS run...I think as the day goes on..the snow totals will grow east to west with later runs...I HOPE!!!! i'M no pro!!!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 5:30 AM | Report abuse

CWG BABY!!!! Best place for weather!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 5:33 AM | Report abuse

BTW Santa brought me the Snowmageddon book by Kevin and Ian.. Its great.

And who knew Kevin was a weather gang "hottie"!
:)

Posted by: where_is_snowmonster | December 25, 2010 5:34 AM | Report abuse

Absolutely stunning how things changed from no snow to possibly a foot of snow in hours.

Posted by: lll1424 | December 25, 2010 5:41 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 5:44 AM | Report abuse

Yhe GFS is locked in and trending better with each run.

This close to the event, something would have to go drastically wrong for DC not to get at least 6".

I would say the odds are 80-90 percent that DC will get 6" or more.

Probably 8-12" is the most likely scenario, maybe as high as 15" if everything goes just right.

I hope forecasters don't try to micromanage their snowfall expectations and predict more east of the city and less in the western suburbs. The western suburbs should get their fair share of the action.

Posted by: frontieradjust | December 25, 2010 5:55 AM | Report abuse

I like how u said MICROMANAGE!! They tried last year and look what happened!! I agree...western suburbs will get therez

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 6:01 AM | Report abuse

Things are looking pretty good. NAM still a miss... Hopefully it comes aboard soon. Looooong week. We better get pay off!

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 6:16 AM | Report abuse

you all deserve it!!! THANK YOU for staying on top of it all and being fair/objective throughout! It's ONLY fitting we end the year with one more big one right? After the wild crazy weather year we have had!!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 6:21 AM | Report abuse

What time should we expect a snowfall accumulation map?

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 6:31 AM | Report abuse

Long time reader, first time poster.

First MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Woke up this morning, checked the site and the best present this year doesn't have wrapping paper on it! I hope it winds up turning into the storm the EURO models forecasted earlier in the week but I'll take 6-8 inches. I still remember the storm in 2000 and this almost as good (that one was on a school night). Once again Merry Christmas and I'm looking forward tomorrow.

Posted by: deeeeeep18 | December 25, 2010 6:34 AM | Report abuse

Ian: Did you actually get any sleep? You seem to have been following these developments all night. We are lucky to have such dedicated folks looking out for us. Thanks!

Where do we send the coffee gift cards?!

Posted by: Weathergeek | December 25, 2010 6:47 AM | Report abuse

Wait til you see the 06Z GFS. Not that it does all that well, but it continues the trend for a crushing storm on Maryland/DC/northern and eastern suburbs. 12-18" possible based on GFS QPF...where could slide east or west depending on final track. Good omen for snow is the phasing just beginning to take shape on Water Vapor loops. Get ready...here it comes!

Posted by: wxdancer | December 25, 2010 6:48 AM | Report abuse

appreciate the quality of forecasting, and lack of hype, but not happy to read about this unfortunate turn of events

still hoping it's nothing more than a nuisance storm and saves the worst for New England

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 6:49 AM | Report abuse

Weathergeek, not much. Would have slept later if it wasn't for a house full of little kids! I'm addicted to this stuff tho so I probably would have been up even without the 2 a.m. phone chat with Jason! My next concern is seeing if I can bump my return to DC so I don't miss anything (or get stuck in New England).

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 6:56 AM | Report abuse

Merry Christmas all. Next update will be mid-to-late morning...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 6:58 AM | Report abuse

western NY and Boston suburbs under ws watch, however no watch right now for Loudoun, Fauquier, Frederick MD, and Carroll Counties

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 7:06 AM | Report abuse

Ian: Travel safe. We all know you love a good snow and wouldn't miss it for the world.

Posted by: Weathergeek | December 25, 2010 7:17 AM | Report abuse

For those wishing to stay off hot button issues like religion and/or politics at holiday gatherings w friends & family today, just bring up this weather forecast. Rile up the "Love snow" vs Hate snow" camps at one other with phrases like "Snow lovers are juvenile" and "People who hate snow have no souls".
The results should be fun.
Happy Holidaze fellow CWG nutters.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 25, 2010 7:23 AM | Report abuse

I haven't seen much said about areas south of DC. I live in Alexandria. Should we just expect whatever DC gets? Is the gradient tight enough to produce significant differences?

Go snow!

Posted by: eliwho | December 25, 2010 7:37 AM | Report abuse

Wow. I followed the forecasts and hourly updates for this storm all week and after yesterday's 5AM post, I just wrote it off.

I went about my business yesterday not even thinking about the weather.

I come on today to see winter storm watches and 5"+ forecasts.

What a change in 24 hours.

Posted by: Vingold | December 25, 2010 7:47 AM | Report abuse

I may get my Christmas wish after all.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Posted by: bdeco | December 25, 2010 7:53 AM | Report abuse

IT'S SNOWING HERE LIKE CRAZY

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 7:54 AM | Report abuse

Merry Christmas everyone! Looks like my Christmas wish might come true :)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

Light flurries just started here in Lake Ridge moving into Fairfax County.

Posted by: ZmanVA | December 25, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

How are things looking for BWI? I'm supposed to arrive there tomorrow night at 7.... I love snow but not when I'm flying!

Posted by: Eisele717 | December 25, 2010 8:01 AM | Report abuse

when do the next models come out? which one is next?

Posted by: fortheglory | December 25, 2010 8:04 AM | Report abuse

Tiny Tim said it best: Merry Christmas, everyone!

Posted by: --sg | December 25, 2010 8:05 AM | Report abuse

This has been enough to convert a young Jew over to the miracles of Christmas. I always told my parents Christmas was more magical anyways.

I know I've been the pessimist here but it's just my nature. So to continue along that vein I'm gonna have to say that until the NAM shifts a little more - I know that's a lot to ask at this point, especially considering the latest Euro trends which tipped the balance - I'm STILL gonna have my reservations for this one. But even through my cynicism I have to say the excitement is palpable.

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 25, 2010 8:11 AM | Report abuse

BEST. CHRISTMAS. GIFT. EVER.

Everyone have a blessed and safe weekend! :)

Posted by: Rcmorgan | December 25, 2010 8:13 AM | Report abuse

@fortheglory -- The Nam is next and should start rolling around 8:30

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 8:13 AM | Report abuse

Thanks CWG for your dedicated service to the community. Snow lovers and haters alike are very grateful to all of you for the long hours and hard work you put into this fantastic weather blog. Merry Christmas to all! Let it snow! Let it Snow! Let it snow!

Posted by: alcw1 | December 25, 2010 8:21 AM | Report abuse

WHITE ON THE GROUND WHITE ON THE GROUND ITS SNOWING LIKE CRAZY AND ITS WHITE ON THE GROUND tune to pants on the ground. so its sticking everywhere here in madison va whats the outcome of this going to be??

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 8:23 AM | Report abuse

Very light dusting already here in Lake Ridge. Sticking to everything.

Posted by: ZmanVA | December 25, 2010 8:25 AM | Report abuse

CWG, Any chances on the next update if you could provide us with a timing of the storm? What time you expect flurries in the DC area, what time you expect the roads to start getting covered? I recognize this storm has been difficult to predict. I have to make it up to Philly tomorrow and was wondering the latest I could leave. Thanks and Merry Xmas. You all do a great job.

Posted by: derrickdew | December 25, 2010 8:32 AM | Report abuse

snowing here in rockville, md....i dont care that it may just be flurries or a snow shower...IT LOOKS BEAUTIFUL! thats a white Christmas for me....just an appetizer/teaser for 2mrrw .....HAPPY HOLIDAYS..tho the merry bells keep ringin...Happy Holidays tooo uuuuu!!!!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 8:35 AM | Report abuse

I just made two changes for my trip back from the Boston area. Monday is off the table, so either wait until Tuesday or come back Sunday. I chose Sunday because Tuesday is too late. The other change is starts near the end of 78 (Tappanzee to 287 to 78 stays the same).

I am going to get away from potential snow and traffic by going north at Bethel, then a short jog north on 81, then west on 209 to Tower City, then 325 down towards Duncannon (NW of Harrisburg). Then 274 all the way west through the mountains (scenic, but slow). In Doylesburg I will take 75 south through Mercersburg into MD. At that point I will probably cut back east to 81 and home, depending on radar trends.

If I don't do that, and the snow goes far enough north to hit Harrisburg, then I could easily see sitting in traffic from the junction of 78 to Harrisburg (been there and done that for hours and hours)

Posted by: eric654 | December 25, 2010 8:37 AM | Report abuse

Ian/CWG:

How does bus travel look from downtown DC to New York City starting at 5 pm Sunday? Should my friend try to get on an earlier bus, or on a train?

Thanks!!

Posted by: Murre | December 25, 2010 8:39 AM | Report abuse

looks like its done here, it was a very nice wake up dusting.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 8:39 AM | Report abuse

Snow here in Herndon/Worldgate now. Very fine flakes at the moment. Thanks Ian & Jason for keeping us updated.

Posted by: kygurl94 | December 25, 2010 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Good morning and Merry Christmas to all!

I'm hoping to drive from Savannah home to DC tomorrow, how does it look for this storm further south? Best if I delay my travel plans to Monday?

Posted by: jochpo | December 25, 2010 8:44 AM | Report abuse

@eric654: If you're stuck near Harrisburg, or even if you aren't, a great place to take a break is the Appalachian Brewing Company: http://www.abcbrew.com/index_flash.htm

I used to live there, love the ABC, and your route made me think of it. Drive safe!

Posted by: --sg | December 25, 2010 8:46 AM | Report abuse

What about flying out of National at 3pm on Sunday (headed to Florida)??

Posted by: Post43 | December 25, 2010 8:46 AM | Report abuse

hey, in case anybody cares..... there is light snow at IAD as of 8:45.
not accumulating, but beautiful. it IS a white christmas

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 8:49 AM | Report abuse

Hey CWG! I'm still in love with you. I know you were wondering so I just wanted to update you.

I'm down in Raleigh now, and just wondering what the snow situation is for Raleigh and traveling up north back to DC tomorrow night. Should I bag it and tell my boss that we should all just take an extended holiday?

xo,
Me

Posted by: aPostReader1 | December 25, 2010 8:52 AM | Report abuse

We're getting some legit flurries here in the Carlyle neighborhood of Alexandria. Flakes are extremely tiny but falling with much higher frequency/density than they were only a half hour ago.

Posted by: eliwho | December 25, 2010 8:52 AM | Report abuse

the 09Z sref ensemble mean low position strongly supports the gfs and it now is forecasting around .75" liquid which would be around 8 inches of snow suggesting the probabilities for the heavier amounts may need to be increased.

Posted by: wjunker | December 25, 2010 8:53 AM | Report abuse

In 45 minutes the dusting is now a light cover of snowfall. Merry Christmas, everyone, and safe travels to us all. Now, bring on the white stuff!

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 25, 2010 8:55 AM | Report abuse

Just wanted to say that you snowfanatics are all nuts, but in a good way. At least there's no political crap on here, so far anyway. And Merry Christmas!

Posted by: justmike | December 25, 2010 8:55 AM | Report abuse

Small flakes coming down in McLean. Such a great way to start off Christmas morning!

Posted by: HokieTerp | December 25, 2010 8:57 AM | Report abuse

For those flying in around 8PM on Sunday to DCA should I bump my flight to today? What do flight cancelations look like?

I've never flow to Regan under this potential....

Posted by: GoodOmens | December 25, 2010 8:58 AM | Report abuse

This storm has caused so many emotional swings. First i was excited a week ago when the euro gave us a monster, then i was dissapointed when it went a way. Yesterday morning, i was about to accept the fact that there wouldnt be a storm, but now im elated to to the likely upcoming blizzard. I predict many grad school thesis will be written on this storm!

Posted by: samd95 | December 25, 2010 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Light snow coming down at a 45 degree angle in Silver Spring.

Posted by: Murre | December 25, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Flurries coming down in Takoma Park, Maryland. Light but steady.

Posted by: cab27 | December 25, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Snow away! We had a Holiday party last night and have leftovers to last a week. Got a standby generator installed this summer, so we are fully prepared for anything.

Posted by: griffin1108 | December 25, 2010 9:03 AM | Report abuse

nam is rolling in as we blog.....

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 9:03 AM | Report abuse

Any word on totals yet?.... I know CWG said in a comment up to 8 inches in one of the models?

I see NOAA and AccuWx have us in the 1-3 inches range?... Any guesstimations yet?

Posted by: KRUZ | December 25, 2010 9:04 AM | Report abuse

9 a.m.- snowing in chevy chase, md.

Thanks to CWG for amazing work. And for bringing us the Philadelphia weather guy's explanation of the models and this goofy week of storm un-storm. Added to your wonderful discussions, made it possible to understand what's been going on.

Jason, go to sleep!

Posted by: ChevyChase3 | December 25, 2010 9:04 AM | Report abuse

What a night-- up until 1:30 a.m. live blogging the latest models, woke up at 5:30 a.m. to post watch info. Back to sleep from 7 to 8:30 a.m. - now I'm up for the long haul to anchor our coverage today.

Folks asking specific questions about travel...I regret I can't answer those at the moment. Working on a new update which will try to address travel concerns. Nice Christmas morning flurries!!!!

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:06 AM | Report abuse

GoodOmens, I would strongly consider switching your flight to today.

Posted by: Murre | December 25, 2010 9:08 AM | Report abuse

Anyone else enjoying christmas morning flurries??

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:13 AM | Report abuse

WHDH has a forecast totals map for New England, 12+ inches Portland-Boston-Providence-SE Connecticut, with lower totals outer Cape due to changeover to rain/sleet

don't know why you snow lovers don't move there

Posted by: TGT11 | December 25, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

hey, another update of IAD. snow falling from flurry to medium-ish at times. no measurable accumulation to speak of, but the ground is turning white!

~29F

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

I'm flying into National Monday night (around 10 pm). Any guesses on how long I'll be waiting at DIA? :-(

Posted by: TheMatt | December 25, 2010 9:14 AM | Report abuse

Just started flurying here near annapolis.

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 9:16 AM | Report abuse

Jason, a merry Christmas to you. Thanks for anchoring today's coverage on this holiday.

Brian, yes, briefly.

Posted by: Murre | December 25, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Nothing beats an early Christmas flurry!

Posted by: Lanternjmk | December 25, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Light snow here is Falls Church for Christmas morning breakfast. Today there is time to sit at the window with a coffee and watch it.

Posted by: tbva | December 25, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

This kills me. I have been planning about 10 different travel options going up and back the east on 12/24 and 26, and had settled on flying back to BWI on a flight due in at 2 PM, then driving back to DC. Should I look to switch to an overnight train tonight, or possibly try for a flight that gets back in around 11 AM 12/26?

Posted by: jca-CrystalCity | December 25, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

A strong flurry here in Mount Pleasant.

Posted by: Citezein | December 25, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Good morning CWG and readers. It's snowing ( flurries really but so pretty!) on Xmas Day! So nice. Thanks for all the updates last night and in advance for your coverage today. I am in Montgomery Village and the flurries are increasing a bit in intensity - and sticking a little on the deck and pathways. My family and I are so excited to see the snow! Happy Holidays and everyone stay safe!

Posted by: soleil2000 | December 25, 2010 9:20 AM | Report abuse

dusting = white Christmas ....... ;)

Posted by: GMorg11 | December 25, 2010 9:21 AM | Report abuse

flurries in Reston. Happy Christmas everyone!

Posted by: howellb1 | December 25, 2010 9:22 AM | Report abuse

Merry Christmas!

Flurries coming down in Rosemont in Alexandria.

And the possibility of a FOOT (or more???) of snow? I am as giddy as a three-year-old with a pile of presents!

All my snow lovers - HOLLA!

Posted by: casa_wasabi | December 25, 2010 9:22 AM | Report abuse

TheMatt - I think they will have had time to clear runways by the time you are landing.. normal operations will have resumed, but perhaps have minor backlogues

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:22 AM | Report abuse

flurries in Reston. Happy Christmas everyone!

Posted by: howellb1 | December 25, 2010 9:23 AM | Report abuse

a little light snow here too.

re sunday's storm:
wow... this is too cool. it's like a christmas present. i have a theory that CWG manipulated all the model data so as to get us all thinking there wouldn't be a storm, then, BOOM! christmas morning we wake up and get a christmas present of a storm tomorrow...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 25, 2010 9:23 AM | Report abuse

The NAM coming in is seriously taking way too long. The suspense is killing me. The good news: WSW extended further west now past Howard County (where I reside). Accuweather just posted a video explaining the nature of their wrongs, they had been adamant about this thing missing east all week (Elliot held a shameful and regretful disposition throughout his broadcast).

All in all I'd have to say I'm wetting my pants at this point. Pops has decided to hop in the old vehicle and head back down to Maryland (we're in Long Island visiting fam right now) after dinner tonight. I suggest people who are travelling stop asking what they should do and understand that the only thing Jason and company can do right now is give their best information. USE IT TO YOUR DISCRETION. No one knows for sure what's going to happen but common sense would have it that it is now looking verry likely for us to get snow.

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 25, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

At my in-laws in Darnestown, MD and what started as flurries is now some serious snowfall...probably temporary

Posted by: parksndc | December 25, 2010 9:24 AM | Report abuse

@Jason-CapitalWeatherGang thanks for all your hard work.

Just rebooked for a earlier flight (getting in at 9am). Hopefully that will avoid most of the weather. Let us know when you think you know when it will hit.

Thanks again!

Posted by: GoodOmens | December 25, 2010 9:25 AM | Report abuse

Radar seems to say the DC area has seen all the snow it's going to for the next few hours, unless that patch hovering over Tennessee makes a serious jump north: http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/Alexandria+VA+22314

Posted by: eliwho | December 25, 2010 9:25 AM | Report abuse

The forecast is NOT fun for us Jewish mothers with one son driving to NYC tomorrow, another flying to Chicago Monday and another kid taking the bus to NYC Monday.

Posted by: summerlover | December 25, 2010 9:26 AM | Report abuse

I am glad so many people are happy and have an excuse to enjoy a day at home. me, not so happy, if i can't take off tomorrow afternoon i miss all my connections for my honeymoon and will lose around $600 a day

Posted by: pomata24 | December 25, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

jca-CrystalCity, Try to land and drive to your destination by early afternoon tomorrow 12/26. Or, after that, wait for sunrise on 12/27 (Monday).. I am most worried about travel impacts mid-afternoon through late night on Sunday.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:29 AM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Very calm (love having a break from howling winds) with snow flurries.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 25, 2010 9:31 AM | Report abuse

The new NAM rolling in is still taking the storm off the coast. Though this dissapoints me, I must say this is the most unreadable forecast I've ever been a part of. And to those drawing comparisons to the 2000 Jan blizzard surprise, there are some eerie parallels. But I'd still have to say that this one will most assuredly be weaker, unless we get another 50 mile shift to the west from the models :)

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 25, 2010 9:32 AM | Report abuse

central arlington has snow flurries, too

Posted by: tleckey15 | December 25, 2010 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Even those that are haters have to give Bastardi credit on this one. Bastardi and Berk stuck by their forecast and will now be rewarded. Today's snow (white Christmas) is icing on the cake. Sure hope the GFS continues to trend west. Let's get Carroll County into that Winter Storm Watch!

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

So should we cancel the Boxing Day open house we've been planning? :(

Posted by: BDVienna | December 25, 2010 9:37 AM | Report abuse

I would be much more excited about this snow if I had heat in my house. Furnace guy can't get the part he needs until Monday, and now of course we're worried he wont' be able to get here (Bowie) at all that day. A timeline would be very helpful to calm already frayed nerves in this house...

Posted by: Louise9 | December 25, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

@cwg when will an accumulation map be posted?

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

snowlover, hey there-- working on it. Discussions are beginning, but we are still looking at all the data. Sorry to ask for some extra time because of the holiday too. A major storm tomorrow has gotten our attention, but we need to spend just a tad bit of time with families ;)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:45 AM | Report abuse

WOW! What a Christmas morning surprise! And here I thought Santa wouldn't be coming this year! ;-)

I'm in Williamsburg, debating driving back to Lake Ridge late night instead of waiting until Mon night! Wouldn't want to miss a good storm at home!

We are watching the Weather Channel on TV and they are of course hyping the hell out the snow and we have noticed that they are very obviously leaving out the DC/mid-Atlantic area! They must not have a clue what's going to happen!

Posted by: mamory1975 | December 25, 2010 9:48 AM | Report abuse

My family has a 10:15 am flight Monday from National airport to Orlando (!) -- I don't much care if it's delayed, but will it be taking off?

Posted by: jromm | December 25, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

I'm dreaming of a White Boxing Day.
Just like the ones I never knew.
May your parties be merry and gay.
And may all your Boxing Days be white.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 25, 2010 9:52 AM | Report abuse

Flurries in Harpers Ferry since about 8:00 a.m.

I'm liking the (modest) mid-week warming trend after the storm and winds move out. We deserve it.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 25, 2010 9:53 AM | Report abuse

Sorry just excited/anxious!

Posted by: snowlover | December 25, 2010 9:54 AM | Report abuse

So should we cancel the Boxing Day open house we've been planning? :(

Posted by: BDVienna | December 25, 2010 9:37 AM
-----------

are you kidding?! it could be the coolest boxing day party ever.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 25, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

As for all of you questioning plans tomorrow: I would try to plan on conditions being relatively unsafe from mid-afternoon into the middle of Sunday night. See if you can reschedule travel before 2pm or after midnight. That is my personal recommendation.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 9:57 AM | Report abuse

At 9:08 NWS expanded Winter Storm Watch northwest to Frederick MD and Loudon VA.

Here's another person who holds an open house on Boxing Day, and I know two others. A trend!

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 25, 2010 9:59 AM | Report abuse

The snow this morning coated the ground white in Oakton, VA but it is already melting away as very light snow continues. The big, fluffy flakes sure looked great for a Christmas morning.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:02 AM | Report abuse

Lovely light snow falling in West Laurel. A nice Christmas Day surprise. Thanks, CW Gang! I always enjoy this site - you do a great job.

Posted by: ppitts2 | December 25, 2010 10:02 AM | Report abuse

We were supposed to go to Long Island tomorrow but are probably going to leave today. Any thoughts on the impacts up there and when it might be safe for us to venture back down here? We will probably return Tuesday.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | December 25, 2010 10:03 AM | Report abuse

Moderate snowfall in northern Anne Arundel County with a festive dusting already on the ground. It's a Christmas miracle!!

Posted by: allagar | December 25, 2010 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Wow,kudos to CWG for posting (and continuing to follow the storm) on Christmas morning. You guys are awesome. Take some time to enjoy your families!

Posted by: LCFC | December 25, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Merry Christmas all you snow lovers.

Even I like a White Christmas.

I had a hunch this storm might pan out when I started getting sinus headaches earlier this week. Now, here's hoping the roads are clear Monday, I have court.

Posted by: epjd | December 25, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

@--sg wrote:

"@eric654: If you're stuck near Harrisburg, or even if you aren't, a great place to take a break is the Appalachian Brewing Company: http://www.abcbrew.com/index_flash.htm"

******************************

Outstanding suggestion and, having lived in the Harrisburg suburbs at one time, I would also recommend Stock's on Second for a wonderful, memorable meal:

http://blog.pennlive.com/go/2010/12/stocks_on_2nd_remains_a_hot_ha.html


Posted by: NativeNorthernVirginian | December 25, 2010 10:09 AM | Report abuse

who's as pumped for the gfs as I am?

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 25, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

"A major storm tomorrow has gotten our attention, but we need to spend just a tad bit of time with families ;)"

Nope, you're not allowed to have a life. ;)

- Ray

Posted by: rmcazz | December 25, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

Flurries off and on down here near Mt. Vernon (Alexandria). Happy Christmas, all! CWG, you're the best!

Posted by: mcaicedo | December 25, 2010 10:22 AM | Report abuse

Snowing pretty steadily in Annapolis for the last hour, but not sticking.

NWS says 5" or more tomorrow??? Bring it on!

Posted by: CCCinNaptown | December 25, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

I'm in Southwest Virginia (the Roanoke area) and was planning to drive back to the District tomorrow (Sunday) in the afternoon. departing around 3 and arriving around 7.

Should I bail out on this plan? And if so, how so -- drive in the morning or just bail out and drive Monday?

BTW we have a nice blanket of snow here, maybe an inch, but it's wet and not accumulating on ashphalt and pavement.

Is there any accumulation yet in Georgetown?

Posted by: Georgetwoner | December 25, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

@ authorofpoetry : The latest NAM model gives Long Island a foot or more late tomorrow into early Monday. The chances for a good snow up there are generally better supported by the models than down here in DC. No clue how long it takes them to clear roads but winds will be strong, complicating clearing.

Posted by: davidstreit1 | December 25, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Given what we now about snow total projections what, in your opinion, are the chances of Barry Bonds of making a comeback?

Posted by: ddg6g | December 25, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

Accumulations on the back deck and the driveway apron in Silver Spring. Oops, it's disaccumulated on the driveway.

Posted by: Murre | December 25, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

@Georgetwoner : If the snow comes in as the more aggressive models show you would need to come back at the crack of dawn to beat it. Most of the DC area is picking up enogh flakes to coat cold spots and leaves on shrubs!

Posted by: davidstreit1 | December 25, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

the fact that there is still disagreement between the NAM and GFS for us down here in DC sure doesn't sound too good. Will be interesting to see if we get anything!!

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

David - Thanks! My in-laws up there are downplaying the situation to my wife. It isn't their problem since they won't have to sleep on an air mattress. Going goes against my better judgement but that doesn't carry much weight...:)

Posted by: authorofpoetry | December 25, 2010 10:34 AM | Report abuse

first off we still have snow cover from last weeks snow, and the light snow that fell at day break this morning made it feel more like christmas. it was coming down there at one point.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 25, 2010 10:34 AM | Report abuse

What time can we expect the next update?

Posted by: samd95 | December 25, 2010 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Sitting in RI checking CWG since it's the best source of weather info anywhere. Looks like traveling from RI to DC may be tough on Monday, but I could deal with another vacation day. What a roller coaster ride thr one has been. Merry Christmas to all, especially our intrepid meteorologists!

Posted by: matthew_lawlor | December 25, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

samd95, We're working on it, but being Christmas morning we've got a lot to balance. We'll have it up ASAP.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:42 AM | Report abuse

Next update is up now.

Posted by: Murre | December 25, 2010 10:48 AM | Report abuse

Many thanks Dave. Early driving it is.

If it weren't for my cat, I would've sat tight.

Posted by: Georgetwoner | December 25, 2010 11:03 AM | Report abuse

And if it weren't for my horse, I wouldn't have spent that year in college.

Posted by: rj2835a | December 25, 2010 11:35 AM | Report abuse

Bah humbug!!! snow is all fine and dandy when you get to stay home and wear your the tacky Christmas sweater that your aunt Sofia knitted for you. But some of us have to work this weekend which means getting out and driving in whatever does accumulate.

So I am hoping that it does NOT SNOW at all, whatsoever.

Now shaddup and sip your cocoa or I'll take away all your batteries. Grrrr.

Posted by: trambusto | December 25, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

Awww! I saw big fluffy flakes for Christmas morning in Gainesville, VA. That is the first time I have ever seen it snow on Christmas day (from the south originally.) What a present!!! YAY!

Started following CWG last year during snowmaggedon, and I wish you all (and the fabulous regulars who comment too) a very Merry Christmas! Thanks for all the hard work.

Looking forward to the travel update. :) We have friends traveling up from NC tomorrow with expected arrival at 1:00p.m. Will this be ok for them?

Posted by: holly6 | December 25, 2010 12:09 PM | Report abuse

Now that we have a storm on the weather map, it is time to stop obsessing about every model burp and pay attention to what is happening in the real world.

The storm, centered just south of Pensacola, seems to be blossoming.

The storm is already packing some punch with wind gusts in New Orleans close to 40 mph. There is an area of very heavy rain near the storm center in the Florida Panhandle, which is an indicator of rapid development.


Also a band of moderate to heavy snow from NE Alabama, thru NW Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Looking at the radar loop, it seems to be headed right toward DC.

With the flow at 500 mb rapidly backing towards the south and the storm rapidly developing, it is hard to conceive that the storm will miss us to the east.

Even being conservative, I believe that 6 inches are a pretty safe bet in the DC area. Up to a foot or more if everything falls into place.

That's my opinion, right or wrong. We will soon see what is really going to happen.

It is already snowing in parts of southern VA. I would think the snow should start in DC by midnight or shortly thereafter. It should be light at first, but get heavier towards dawn.

Posted by: frontieradjust | December 25, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

Awesome, I was seriously bumming that we would have another 'near miss.' I hope the models stay inline. Eager to take my new Jeep out in some deep stuff! Merry Christmas!

Posted by: Bworl | December 25, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

this is my first time on this blog. i just wanted to check out more up to date forecast for this weekend because it is important for me on these 2 days and everyone has done a wonderful informative service. But i think a lot of people here are really thoughtless and naive rooting for as much snow as possible. Do you have any idea how much this affects a lot of people's lives? people who can't stay at home by the fire sipping coffee? Everyone is entitled to do whatever they want but i think it's important to turn on your brain before being happy for 6 inches or a foot of snow.

Posted by: pomata24 | December 25, 2010 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Bury them and forget about them.

Posted by: jobandon | December 25, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

"But i think a lot of people here are really thoughtless and naive rooting for as much snow as possible. Do you have any idea how much this affects a lot of people's lives? people who can't stay at home by the fire sipping coffee? Everyone is entitled to do whatever they want but i think it's important to turn on your brain before being happy for 6 inches or a foot of snow."

Posted by: pomata24 | December 25, 2010 2:41 PM

So, if something possibly could inconvenience or negatively impact others, no one should root for it? Some people don't like hot weather, so summer lovers shouldn't hope for temps in the '90s? No matter what happens, some people are going to like it and others aren't. Its not like we can do anything about it, so we might as well appreciate it as much as we can. Our attitude towards the snow affects the ease with which we can cope with it. I like snow, even though I have to go out in it too, and I'm not going to apologize for that.

Posted by: rufus_t_firefly | December 25, 2010 4:46 PM | Report abuse

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