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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 12/12/2010

Forecast: Mild rains followed by cold, flurries

By Brian Jackson

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

A nice warm-up to be sure, but morning and afternoon rain counterbalance the improvement.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Periods of rain, mild. 47-51. | Tonight: Rain showers then a chance of snow showers/flurries. Near 30. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, windy. Chance for flurries. Lower 30s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The storm we've been watching for the better part of a week is here, and it looks more wet than white. Mild temperatures, gusty winds, and periods of rain can be expected today, but we're in for quite a change. When the front passes through tonight, temperatures quickly drop, possibly paving the way for some snow showers or flurries. Don't expect much though, as the front's major effects are more wintry chill and blustery winds as we head into the work week.

Snow Potential Index: 3 (↑) - The chances of a dusting tonight (into tomorrow) & light snow Thursday are not much, but something.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Rain, yes rain, falls intermittently today. All the while, breezy southerly winds will be pumping up our temperatures. A few locales could pop above 50, but most of us top out in the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The front moves through during the late evening and temperatures begin to drop off. Showers remain in liquid form for the early hours but there is a chance of some flakes flying later on in the night as we approach freezing. A dusting or so can't be ruled out and just a little snow coupled with falling temps could cause slick roads. Winds turn around from the northwest and continue to be breezy, near 15 mph and overnight lows dip to near 30. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading to see our next chance for snow...

Tomorrow (Monday): Back to work and back to winter tomorrow. Our temperatures won't warm up much at all. In fact, they may dip a bit through the day as cold air continues to make itself at home, with a high in the lower 30s. Skies stay mostly cloudy and some light flurries or snow showers are still possible (especially in the morning) but again, any accumulations will be minimal, probably not more than a dusting or so. West-northwest winds are going to once again be strong, at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: Skies begin to clear and temperatures respond negatively. Winter chill really takes hold overnight, with lows backing into the mid-to-upper teens. With winds still blowing at a pretty good clip, blustery is probably the best word to describe it. A decreasing, but remaining chance for a flurry or two continues overnight. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday and Wednesday give us a good chance to become acclimated to our new season. Cold and windy conditions continue to plague us. One saving grace will be the reemergence of the sun, but it will do little to warm us up as highs both days struggle to reach much higher than 30. During the overnights, under partly cloudy skies, lows drop into the teens to near 20 degrees with wind chills near zero Tuesday night. Confidence: Medium-High

On Thursday, a low pressure area slides by to our south, bringing with it the chance for some overrunning precipitation, which could fall as snow. It's a little early for specifics, and it doesn't look overly impressive, but it is worth mentioning. Right now, expect mostly cloudy skies, and a 30 percent chance of some snow or rain. Highs should be in the mid-30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Brian Jackson  | December 12, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Metrodome roof fails after Minneapolis blizzard

Comments

Is it me, or did you miss the forcast for SUNDAY? You are referencing today as Monday and returning to work tomorrow at Tuesday. That seems odd to me, unless you can't wait for next week as much as me. thanks.

Posted by: fatmoki | December 12, 2010 5:38 AM | Report abuse

I think I must have done some serious oversleeping. It seems I've missed Sunday :)

Posted by: BruceSorrell | December 12, 2010 5:56 AM | Report abuse

Brian is ahead of his time. By one day.

Posted by: mhardy1 | December 12, 2010 9:06 AM | Report abuse

Gosh - my sister is going to be upset because we missed her dinner on Sunday. My kids missed school and their bus this morning and I missed my client meeting scheduled for 9am. That was one quick weekend!!!

Posted by: greg2010 | December 12, 2010 9:31 AM | Report abuse

Hey you all, we are working on fixing - glad you noticed! Also, strange that comments are double-posting a lot lately.. has that also been a system error you've noticed? Thanks for feedback! Stay dry.. and warm.. today!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Fixed. Cursed pre-existing templates...

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Dear Santa,

All I want for Christmas is snow. I'm not asking for an unreasonable amount- just something over five inches.

Sincerely,

Me (a snow lover)


I have no doubt Santa checks CWG on a regular basis as good forecasts are crucial to a man in his line of work.
I figured I'd up the ante in getting this granted. I've eliminated the risk of my message getting lost in the holiday mail.

Now all I have to do is that back and wait for the SLCB.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 12, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Snowlover2 - you are okay with our new Snow Potential Index replacing our SLCB from last year, right? We wanted to streamline. Make it less verbose (more concise) -- we are up to a 3 today. So the trend is your friend. We'll see if Santa helps you out further, closer we get to the 25th ;)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 10:56 AM | Report abuse

Oh! Duh! Did not realize the SPI was a replacement- and yes, of course! Makes sense!

I am hopeful Santa will come through this month, given the colder than average temps, despite La Nina and the PDO's negative attitude. This dreaded weather pattern!

Not sure if I made the naughty list, though.....

Maybe one of your more angelic readers will put in a request as well!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 12, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

i bet we get more than a dusting if this thing keeps cranking along like it is.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 12, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

the SPI replaces the SLCB?! i thought it was in addition to the SLCB - like if we got w/in say 24hrs of a good snow possibility you'd pull out the ol' crystal ball? no?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 12, 2010 12:12 PM | Report abuse

I second that request to Santa, Snowlover2! :)

Posted by: Rcmorgan | December 12, 2010 12:32 PM | Report abuse

We are NOT replacing the SLCB. Camden was mistaken on that. We will continue to run the SLCB when appropriate.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

I'm wondering if temps were forecast to drop as quickly as they are? We have already fallen from the 40s into the upper 30s here in Fairfax - seems like maybe the cold air is coming a bit faster than anticipated?

Posted by: jahutch | December 12, 2010 1:02 PM | Report abuse

Hi there jahutch - While there are a few pockets of cooler air associated with this storm system (arguably several intertwined low pressure systems) the bulk of it really won't conspicuously move into the region until after 2am tonight. What you are also seeing is heavier rain bringing down the cooler air from aloft in the atmosphere to the surface. But nothing on a large-scale is happening faster than anticipated. That a satisfactory answer?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

re SLCB:
...whew...

boy... got a fire in the fireplace, family's home, redskins on t.v. - and winning! - if only this rain would turn to snow, it would be perfect.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 12, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

What are the chances of roads freezing overnight tonight?

Posted by: Dylan0513 | December 12, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Phew. I'm glad the SLCB will still show up (hopefully...) I didn't want to be a whiner, so I didn't comment earlier. :-)

Posted by: megamuphen | December 12, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

So noaa has issued a forecast that says "up to an inch of snow possible" with the snow showers that are coming late tonight and tomorrow. Any substance to this? The snows look impressive to the west but I know they tend to break up over the mountains...
Your thoughts?

Posted by: rapotter | December 12, 2010 4:12 PM | Report abuse

The SLCB should NOT be replaced!!!

I believe it "kicks in" whenever the SPI hits "5" or above. Of course I'm waiting for the "Perfect Ten"...that guarantee of CERTAIN SNOW for the entire Metro area [Hint: let's recall those events of 1979, 1983, 1996, 2006 (?), Snowpocalypse, Snowmageddon, Snoverkill, and several other earlier events]...incidentally some preliminary ensembles may be hinting at a "Snowmageddon II" ca. six days before Christmas following roughly the same track as last year & with the deep cold air in place!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 12, 2010 4:19 PM | Report abuse

The SLCB should NOT be replaced!!!

I believe it "kicks in" whenever the SPI hits "5" or above. Of course I'm waiting for the "Perfect Ten"...that guarantee of CERTAIN SNOW for the entire Metro area [Hint: let's recall those events of 1979, 1983, 1996, 2006 (?), Snowpocalypse, Snowmageddon, Snoverkill, and several other earlier events]...incidentally some preliminary ensembles may be hinting at a "Snowmageddon II" ca. six days before Christmas following roughly the same track as last year & with the deep cold air in place!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 12, 2010 4:19 PM | Report abuse

The SLCB isn't going anywhere bombo. We can all relax.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Double postings...

This is probably happening because we don't know with the new system whether our comments are "taking"...it's taking a lot more time for the comments to "post"...so we hit the "Enter" button twice!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 12, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

The SLCB isn't going anywhere bombo. We can all relax.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 12, 2010 4:26 PM | Report abuse

NWS says we could get about an inch of snow tonight.

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 12, 2010 5:31 PM | Report abuse

That inch is looking more and more likely....snow showers forming to the south west!

Posted by: rapotter | December 12, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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