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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 12/ 4/2010

Forecast: Cold holds. Flurries tonight?

By Ian Livingston
Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Still cold, and turning cloudier by afternoon. Snow of any consequence passes well to the south.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds. Near 40. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Flurries? Mid-20s to near 30. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, windy. Near 40. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

We're not staring down any major weather makers locally, but this weekend won't be terribly pleasant outdoors. Though not highly likely, a few flakes could fall from D.C. and south overnight, with any accumulation even further south. Here, flurries are not the real story of the weekend, but rather temperatures well below average, and mixed with wintry winds starting tomorrow. Right now, there's no end in sight to our January-like chill, which if anything gets even chillier as we go.

Snow Potential Index: 1 (→) - At best, we'll see some flurries from the clipper passing to our south and dropping a little snow in southern Va. and NC. It's probably time to glance toward the horizon for something else.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): If you want to soak up what little sun power is available, plan on being out early. As the day progresses it should become cloudier, and we'll probably be mostly cloudy by later in the afternoon. Highs reach near 40 and into the lower 40s. Winds are lighter than they have been. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The clipper system we've been talking about passes by to the south. Enough moisture tries to work north to give us scattered flurries, especially D.C. and south. Lows reach the mid-to-upper 20s in the suburbs to maybe the lower 30s downtown. Skies clear toward dawn, while winds which were lighter start to gain momentum. Confidence: Medium-High

Do we lose the below-average temperatures anytime soon? What about those winds we've talked about? Keep on reading...

Tomorrow (Sunday): If you're like me and dislike cold wind, this is looking like a fantastic day to watch a lot of football indoors. Winds whip up from the northwest, probably sustained around 15-20 mph or so during the heart of the day. That means gusts may peak near 30-35 mph across much of the area. Combined with highs near 40, it's going to feel kind of wicked (wind chills in the teens and 20s). Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: The biting chill of the day rolls on into the night. Winds die off slightly, back to around 10 mph, but not enough to really matter much. Lows in the mid-20s to near 30 should feel at least 10 degrees colder during most of the night. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday wind and cold remain the stories. As the sun rises, so do the wind speeds. We're looking at yet another day with sustained winds about 15-20 mph out of the northwest with higher gusts. Even better? Highs mainly in the upper 30s across the area. Impulses rotating around a large low to our northeast swing through from time to time, possibly ejecting a few flurries. Confidence: Medium

On Tuesday, we're locked into the cold still, what Camden yesterday aptly called a broken record. It's still fairly windy, but it seems the pressure gradient that fuels the wind wants to relax a bit by later in the day. Hopefully that means it's headed calmer, at least temporarily. Highs? You guessed it, pretty close to 40 yet again. There could be a flurry or two again as well. Confidence: Medium

By Ian Livingston  | December 4, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Wintry winds take hold

Comments

It's 21 degrees down in Spotsy...I'm hoping for a least a dusting tonight

Posted by: panthersny | December 4, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

i will be in spotsy co tonight. i wonder if thats where it might come down more than just flurries ? is it not true that dec 5 is allways a snow day for us?

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 4, 2010 8:38 AM | Report abuse

So what is the chance of snow next weekend?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 4, 2010 12:42 PM | Report abuse

So what is the chance of snow next weekend?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 4, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Looks like the traditional December 6 snowstorm is going to miss us to the south - is this a harbinger of colder than average weather ahead?

Posted by: dickinyobooty69 | December 4, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

Still some chance of flurries tonight...mainly high clouds...cirrus and some cirrostratus. Possibly a flurry or two near Charlottesville.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 4, 2010 2:39 PM | Report abuse

RegSat shows cloud cover or precip for much of the region and beyond right now. We're in a wedge of sunshine.

Posted by: jaybird926 | December 4, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

weather .com's 10 day already shows snow/mix for next sat and snow for next sunday. Is this next storm inevitable to hit us as HM from accuwx is acting like?

And accuwx 15 day, while all fantasy shows more snow for the following weekend as well. Is this going to be another winter of winter storm threats every weekend?

Posted by: KRUZ | December 4, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

http://128.173.197.94/railcamax.htm

Snowcam from Roanoke.

Posted by: greg2010 | December 4, 2010 4:29 PM | Report abuse

The new weather page - especially the map, is really not user friendly.

Posted by: barbnc | December 4, 2010 5:50 PM | Report abuse

Re-next weekend: too soon to be speculating about anything. A couple models try to develop some storminess--one model would suggest some rain or a mix, another has the storminess developing mostly out to sea. But I'm going to say this all winter long: until we get within 3 or 4 days, we're usually not going be able to provide a lot of detail about what to expect in terms of precip amounts and type. We might post about whether the overall pattern supports or doesn't support a winter storm, but AccuWeather seems like it's going to write articles hyping every conceivable threat all winter long so you're going to need to consider the source... Also don't put a lot of stock into these computer generated forecasts you see on AccuWeather and Weather.com beyond 5 days when you type in a DC zip - they're not particularly meaningful.

As soon as we see a legitimate threat of any possible impactful winter storm, we'll write about it. If there's nothing on our blog, it's either because we think it's too soon to make any meaningful forecast or because we don't see a legitimate threat.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2010 6:05 PM | Report abuse

@barbnc

Thanks for the feedback. Can you be more specific? When the page loads, the map that loads is a basic radar loop - which is no different than what was there on the previous version of the page. There are other maps you can load and interact with if you choose. Click on the information (i) icon on the right side of the Weather Wall for help using the interactive maps. We're going to be making changes/improvements over time to make the page more useful, so we value your feedback.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2010 6:15 PM | Report abuse

3.0 inches of snow at 645 PM in Blacksburg, VA..GO HOKIES!!!!

Posted by: dsmflood_guy | December 4, 2010 6:48 PM | Report abuse

That'll be some wind, starting tomorrow. The NWS says they might post a wind advisory for the Eastern Panhandle for Sunday night through Tuesday evening for WNW gusts over 45 mph.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 4, 2010 7:12 PM | Report abuse

Jason,

I respect you for saying that, and it’s why I was somewhat disappointed to see you guys start the Snow Index, and the way it lists the chance of snow five to seven days out.

Perhaps you guys could change it from “the next week” to the next 3 to 4 days.

Posted by: jaybird926 | December 4, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse

@jaybird926

Thanks for the comment. For days 5-7, the SPI will reflect whether the overall pattern is favorable, but you probably won't see it go high based on that period. I think the thing to watch in the SPI for those days is the trend - whether it's going up, down or level.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2010 9:32 PM | Report abuse

@Jason

If you dont blog about the potential of a snow storm next week because its too far out, you will tweet about it?... Tonight CWG tweeted: "Not much in the immediate forecast besides flurries, but maybe a different story by this time next week."

So now you guys do see a potential for a snow storm 7 days out?

Or does Henry Margusity do your tweets ;)

Posted by: KRUZ | December 5, 2010 12:34 AM | Report abuse

00 model pattern still hold potential coastal event 12/13.....12/19 last year we got hammered.

Posted by: StormChaserMan | December 5, 2010 1:35 AM | Report abuse

@KRUZ

We're not going to give specifics because the science doesn't allow it - that's all. We'll discuss the pattern and potential as appropriate.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 5, 2010 10:23 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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