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Posted at 10:40 AM ET, 12/ 1/2010

Forecast: Stormy a.m. before cold air blows in

By Dan Stillman

(originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 11:10 a.m.)

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Stormy & mild early. Windy & cold late. Not much to like except for those looking for some weather excitement.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Gusty (50 mph+) a.m. showers and t'storms. Near 60 early, falling into the 40s. | Tonight: Evening breezes & clearing skies. Mid-20s to low 30s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Low-to-mid 40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

If you're commuting this morning, brace yourself for a rough one. Downpours and possibly thunderstorms - with the potential for damaging winds, an isolated tornado, flooding of low-lying areas and power outages - make getting around difficult through much of the morning. A breezy blast of cold air follows this afternoon, leaving us chilly and precipitation-free through Friday. We have been, and still are, watching a small chance of a little snow this weekend.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Heavy showers and thunderstorms - potentially with damaging wind gusts to near and past 50 mph - batter the metro area this morning. Many locations could see 1-2" of rain in a short amount of time. So watch out for power outages as well as flooding in low-lying areas near creeks and streams, and anywhere that storm drains are jammed with leaves. Morning temps start out quite mild - near 60 - before free-falling into the 40s from west to east during the mid-to-late morning. Just a chance of a lingering midday shower, then clearing skies and occasionally gusty breezes as the afternoon wears on. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:
Probability: 50-60%
Coverage: Scattered
Most likely timing: 5 a.m. to 11 a.m.

Snow Potential Index: 2 (↓) 3 (no change) - What little model support there was for the chance of a little snow this weekend isn't completely gone, but has diminished has made a comeback in the latest model output. Let's wait another 12-24 hours, though, before getting too excited. [updated at 11:10 a.m.]

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Tonight: Those morning highs near 60 are nothing but a distant memory as evening temperatures tumble into the 30s, not to mention a breezy chill. Overnight lows dip down to the low 30s downtown and mid-to-upper 20s in the suburbs under increasingly clear skies. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Wednesday's weather action gives way to a partly sunny and just plain chilly Thursday. A bit of a breeze lingers from the west at around 10-15 mph as highs likely fail to surpass the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Winds should be pretty light, and ordinarily that would lead to plummeting temperatures. But we may have enough clouds around - we'll call it partly cloudy - to keep temps from falling any lower than the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Friday shapes up much the same as Thursday - partly sunny and cold with low-to-mid 40s for highs - but with less of a breeze. Confidence: Medium-High

The small chance of a little snow that we've been watching for the weekend remains small but not out of the question. So while the more likely scenario is for Friday's weather to continue through Saturday and Sunday with partly sunny skies, afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 40s, and morning lows in the mid-to-upper 20s (suburbs) to low 30s (downtown), things could still change. So stay tuned. Confidence: Low-Medium [updated at 11:10 a.m.]

By Dan Stillman  | December 1, 2010; 10:40 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Welcome winter! Temps tank behind storm

Comments

Man, what a horrible commute this AM! Rain, Rain, go away!

Posted by: Jamie Jones | December 1, 2010 7:26 AM | Report abuse

Boy, I got lucky this morning. Got up to what would pass for a monsoon. Realized I left my umbrella in the car, because, you know, I'm a meteorologist and all. Got dressed, still raining like its going out of style but just as I walk out the door it lightened up enough for a dash to the car before the downpour resumed as I turned out of the complex. Too bad the luck didn't hold through the commute. Yeesh.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 1, 2010 7:38 AM | Report abuse

I was disappointed in the amount of rain. Like usual, the storm covers the entire state of PA with quality rains, but peters out to showers in our area. Western Fairfax won't even be able to squeeze an inch out of this storm. We just never seem to get much precipitation from storms that move in from the west. Our mountains seem to have different effects than the mountains in PA.

Posted by: rocotten | December 1, 2010 7:52 AM | Report abuse

Who gets disappointed that we don't get slammed with rain?? Ok, anyhow....

People just don't know how to drive. It was treacherous out there this morning at 6am with major winds and blowing rain and idiots are doing 30mph in the left lane on FFX Cty Parkway. Swerving all over the road and basically acting a fool. I have been driving for 25 years and this morning was one of the worst commutes I have seen. It was pretty much like driving through a low scale hurricane or strong tropical storm. People that can't handle that should just stay off the road because they are a danger to the rest of us.

Posted by: j0nx | December 1, 2010 8:07 AM | Report abuse

Greetings from North Bethesda. I can tell you firsthand that the swath of yellow on radar that is directly overhead my location - and looking to drift east over much of the inside-the-beltway area -means business. It is producing buckets upon buckets of wind-swept rain.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | December 1, 2010 9:17 AM | Report abuse

The mercury in northern Prince William county has hit 44, so I'm not buying your web page that says Dulles is 63. 63 at 6:00 am, yes, but not now...

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | December 1, 2010 9:17 AM | Report abuse

the first drops of an intense line are hitting alexandria.

this storm is going out with a bang.

Posted by: jaybird926 | December 1, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

@silencedogoodreturns

I assume you are talking about the "Right Now" box on our left sidebar? Dulles was indeed still at 63 as of 8 a.m. Then the front came through, dropping Dulles's 9 a.m. temp down to 45. By the way, there is a time stamp with the observations (just above the radar pic in that box).

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | December 1, 2010 9:48 AM | Report abuse

I left my Alexandria apartment at about 9:15 this morning, and at that time I definitely didn't need the heavy coat I was wearing. By the time I got to my office in the District about 40 minutes later, the heavy coat was buttoned up and I was thinking I should have remembered my gloves. I think the temperature dropped at least five degrees just from the time I left my apartment to the time the bus came less than 10 minutes later. Pretty amazing!

Posted by: aks8218 | December 1, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

aks8218 - I'm really glad you knew to wear your heavy coat. I did the same thing on my way to work, even though it was somewhat warm to wear it!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 1, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

We need a post-storm Daily Digit. That storm rated a number deep in the negative range but I think it's quite nice now--seasonal temps, fresh W/NW breeze, very invigorating.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 1, 2010 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Temperature dropped from 65 at 7 am this morning to 41 at 11:30 am...24-degree drop.

Tom Skilling has forecast a sticking snow Friday night/Saturday for Chicago...snow here Dec. 5th???

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 1, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

W00000T thats what im talkin' about. SNOW. (hence the name)
now..... lets make that SPI (up) ++ alright...

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 1, 2010 4:17 PM | Report abuse

I get excited at even the mention of snow! :)

Posted by: Rcmorgan | December 1, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Of course I knew to wear the heavy coat--I checked CWG and NWS before I left for work! I don't understand people who get surprised by the weather--I'm a planner :). I've been hooked on CWG ever since I discovered you all during Snowmageddon.

Posted by: aks8218 | December 1, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

ake8218- good for you,capital weather gang sure saved me during the first blizzard, i was in mexico on vacation checking to see what the weather would be like on my return trip, so i go to capital weather gang to see the forcast and nearly pass out. so anyway whats the latest on the dec5 snow situation?

Posted by: snowlover31 | December 1, 2010 6:47 PM | Report abuse

Any word at the moment on what the long-range outlook for December will be? I arrive in the DC area on Dec. 16 and wondered how heavy I should be dressing myself...

Posted by: the2belo | December 2, 2010 1:48 AM | Report abuse

Sorry, I answered my own question by reading backward (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/11/a_look_into_december.html). Yay for lower-than-normal temperatures!

Posted by: the2belo | December 2, 2010 1:54 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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