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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 12/ 2/2010

Forecast: Wintry temps to dominate

By David Streit

A few flakes possible Saturday night

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

An improvement over yesterday but we need some time to acclimate to these temps!
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Sunny a.m., partly cloudy p.m. 42-46. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 25-31. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 40-44. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The temperatures that we are stuck with for the next week are more typical of the heart of winter than early December. Snow chances are mainly low despite the cooperative temps. A developing storm flies by to our south Saturday night offering a chance of mainly just flurries. Its main impact is going to be wind chills that are ugly on Sunday and Monday.

Snow Potential Index: 2 (↓) - If only this storm system would track across Va. instead of NC we would have a much better chance of a dusting. As it is I am sticking to mostly flurries Saturday night.

 
The SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): Sunshine is expected to start the day but clouds are likely to increase across the area by midday. This is due to a moisture starved disturbance passing overhead. Tolerable winds of 5-15 mph from the west limit wind chill but the lack of sun is noticed as highs struggle to make the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds blanket the area in the evening but break up overnight. Lows drop to the mid-20s outside the beltway and lower 30s downtown. Light breezes from the northwest still add to the chill. For you predawn risers, take a look into the eastern sky for a dramatic conjunction of the slim crescent moon, brilliant Venus and bright star Spica all clustered together. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

Tomorrow (Friday): This should be a much sunnier day, but we have not a smidgen more heat to show for it. Most areas see highs reside in the low-to-mid 40s yet again. These reading are more typical of late January! Winds remain blessedly light at 5-10 mph from the northwest. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: A lack of clouds and light breezes allow readings to slip to quite chilly levels. 30s in the evening require plenty of bundling up to go out and lows end up ranging through the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday brings gradually increasing clouds as a "clipper" system approaches from the Midwest. While the Midwest probably sees 2 to 4" snow accumulations, our area will be hard pressed to do better than some flurries Saturday night. Highs during the day should not exceed upper 30s to lower 40s if the clouds come in as quickly as expected. Winds remain light through the evening. Lows only fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday morning winds steadily increase making it chilly despite the mostly sunny skies. The culprit is the clipper, which should be offshore and strengthening rapidly as it heads up to New England. Highs hold mainly in the wintry lower 40s. Overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 20s feel more like the teens thanks to the wind. Confidence: Medium

Monday continues to suffer from the effects of the New England storm which pulls down more cold air from the north. Add in blustery northwest winds and this is an inside with soup kind of day! Highs only reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

By David Streit  | December 2, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

NWS says 30% chance of snow in Harpers Ferry on Saturday night, which could well be the wee hours making it actually Sunday Dec. 5. I'm no snowfan but I do think it's remarkable how consistent the Dec. 5 snow thing is.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 2, 2010 6:24 AM | Report abuse

A cold winter without snow is like a body without a soul.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 2, 2010 7:21 AM | Report abuse

uh... wasn't the SPI at "2(down arrow)" yesterday? if it's still at 2, why the down arrow?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 2, 2010 7:55 AM | Report abuse

The down arrow is there because it is such a downer.

Posted by: eric654 | December 2, 2010 8:05 AM | Report abuse

BTW, we can all express our ↓ feelings using ampesrand darr semicolon

Posted by: eric654 | December 2, 2010 8:08 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

Dan upgraded the SPI to a 3 midday yesterday in an update. David has knocked it back down.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2010 8:12 AM | Report abuse

jason, so it went ↑, then ↓? (thanks eric!)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 2, 2010 8:30 AM | Report abuse

Too cold. Too cloudy. Too windy. Definite weather fail!

How many more days until spring?

Posted by: rumbly45 | December 2, 2010 8:52 AM | Report abuse

WMAL mentioned a possibility of flurries tonight...

Posted by: spgass1 | December 2, 2010 8:55 AM | Report abuse

we, or i anyway, and fond of recalling last winters' "blizzards". my wife called me on that, saying that technically those weren't blizzards. now i'm pretty sure she's correct for the december storm, but i recall that at least for select periods of time one of the february storms was a "blizzard" - or at least that we experienced "blizzard conditions" or something like that.

clarification anyone?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 2, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

@ Walter - leaving all of the other aspects out, you get a "Blizzard" classification/warning with sustained 35 MPH winds in your snow storm...I've seen Blizzard Watch/Warnings up for storms that drop only an inch or two of actual powder...its the wind and the visibility that will get the NWS to drop the term "blizzard" on us. As far as we were concerned, there were three obvious mega-snow events, but only the two in Feb had true blizzard conditions - espcially Snoverkill.

Posted by: DullesARC | December 2, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

C'mon Snow :) Make an appearance... It'd be so magical!

Posted by: sigmagrrl | December 2, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

36 degrees in Fairfax at 11:30am. Lovely. That's the average high temperature here in Fairfax for.....never. On the coldest day of the year here on average (Jan 22) the average high is 41. Thank God I'm flying to warm and sunny Florida tomorrow. I hate the cold and winter. So much for "la Nina" and its warm pattern for our winters.

Posted by: rwalker66 | December 2, 2010 11:28 AM | Report abuse

Still holiding out for that Dec. 5th tradition...hopefully it will track closer to us or we'll get more moisture inflow.

Could get our first flakes sooner...there's a nice altostratus deck over us right now with clear skies to the north and east.

Only lightning is just E of Lake Erie in western New York State...probably a lake-effect thundersnow squall.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 2, 2010 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Still holiding out for that Dec. 5th tradition...hopefully it will track closer to us or we'll get more moisture inflow.

Could get our first flakes sooner...there's a nice altostratus deck over us right now with clear skies to the north and east.

Only lightning is just E of Lake Erie in western New York State...probably a lake-effect thundersnow squall.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 2, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Snowlover2 said: "A cold winter without snow is like a body without a soul."

I disagree. A cold winter etc. is fabulous hiking weather, which makes my body and soul both feel great.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 2, 2010 11:44 AM | Report abuse

The Venus-moon-Spica conjunction was this morning, not tomorrow.

Posted by: DontWannaMyPostID | December 2, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

thanks DullesARC. i'm going with "we had 2 blizzards last year".

anyone else?

is there any doubt that the first feb one was a blizzard? i found out visibility has to go down to 1300ft also. for how long? is there any constraint on how long it has to blow 35mph or have low visibility to be called "sustained"?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 2, 2010 4:31 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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