Forecast: Wintry winds take hold

We had a few flurries just after 6:00am here in fashionable Montgomery Village/Germantown.

CWG,
my interpretation of that 2(↑) is that there is a 20% chance of snow next sunday.

if the storm is supposed to get here next mon/tue/wed etc... that wouldn't be reflected in the SPI, since the SPI is only supposed to cover one week, right? and no one thinks it's supposed to snow before next weekend, right?

Walter, there's really no percentages involved, it's just a reflection of potential, you could infer chances from it but its more arbitrary, at least thats how I use it. Also, the chances for snow begin late on Sunday, so it's right on the edge of our weekly window.

So, is it correct to assume that the current SPI reflects the potential for flurries over the next few days and not so much on the potential for anything beyond next Saturday?

@pjdunn1

No -- it only reflects potential for accumulating snow per the description.

Thanks for the clarification Jason. I guess I was more focused on "SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential for the next week on a 0-10 scale", than on the actual description of the SPI where accumulating snow is mentioned.

Walter, I think Brian is trying to say that there will be 3.1 inches of snow at your house by midnight Sunday night (which you will have to stay up to measure). I will send you a special ruler to use.

i think i just saw some snow in potomac, is that possible? I don't see anything on the radar.

thanks eric... most of my rulers have that .453" of "blank space" before the actual measuring part of the ruler starts... wasn't sure how i was going to handle that...

GO SKINS!

A flake or two flying in Columbia, nothing much, but first I've seen this season!

CWG - Have you looked at the HPC Long Range Discussion. There is talk of some storm in the 1950's that has a very similiar track (on the models) as the storm a week from today. Add some thoughts...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

Nothing yet...just windy and cold...cloudy weather looks a lot like flurries.

@greg2010...As I recall, the winter of 1950/51 was the winter of bitter cold and snow in western Wisconsin...also the extremely bitter winter in Korea during the Korean War...involving the Chinese invasion and the arduous retreat from the Chosin Reservoir.

Some cold temperature records for January, 1951 in western Wisconsin include: -35 in Eau Claire, -40 in Menomonie and -45 in Mondovi. This is about as cold as it ever gets in that region of the North Woods, though an unofficial record of -62 was allegedly recorded in a tamarack swamp or similar locale near Rice Lake, WI in one of the cold waves of the late 1970's or 1980's.

The NWS discussion cites an apparent similarity between next week's model runs and the great Ohio valley storm of Nov., 1950. What I don't know about that period involves what type weather we had here in Washington at the time though 1950/51 was apparently a La Nina winter with a Greenland block or other negative NAO pattern...and it was a bitterly cold winter in the Upper Midwest and the Korean peninsula!

I don't see anything happening in NW DC-just clouds and wind. The radar shows some stuff way far out near Martinsburg-will that be coming our way?

Back from attending the ACC Championship Game, in which the Hokies beat FSU. Stayed at a friends house in Edna NC, about 10 miles S of Danville Va. It started snowing about noon & we left 4 Charlotte at 1pm, drove in snow until about 25 miles from Charlotte. Snow was on the ground from about 30 miles N of Charlotte to my friends house, he had about 1.5". Left at 9:30 2day & ground was snow covered until I got about 25 miles S of Charlottesville.
Hokies on 2 the Orange Bowl.

Bombo- 1-3 feet of snow fell in eastern ohio, northern west Virginia and Western PA during the Nov 1950 storm. I don't think there was much snow east of the Apps during that event.

Walter, do you have ideas for your next sculpture?

tbva,
uh...no...i really don't yet. we'll see when/how much, then i'll decide... but i LOVE that you're thinking about it too...!

One of the GFS ensembles seems to develop a pretty healthy Miller-B storm off the Carolinas on Dec. 13...it then appears to head out to sea but we could see a few inches of accumulating snow here...most likely a dusting to 5". Other solutions tend to pull the storm to our north and east...just more wind & cold like we're now getting.