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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 12/18/2010

Next chance of light snow: Tuesday

By Dan Stillman

Next accumulating snow chance: Tuesday
Probability of accumulating snow (1" or more): 30-40%
Maximum accumulation potential: 2-4"

As we turn our attention away from a coastal storm that should, at most, bring flurries to the area tonight into tomorrow, we begin to focus on the potential for another light snow event Tuesday.

The culprit is a relatively weak, fast-moving system that will be coming from the west, somewhat similar to the one that brought around 1-2" of snow to the area on Thursday.

Keep reading for more on the chances for light snow on Tuesday. And, could something be brewing for on or around Christmas?

Still more than 48 hours away, the usual questions are on the table, including whether the system will have enough energy to sustain a solid area of precipitation once it crosses the Appalachians, and what the exact track will be. If we do get any precipitation in here, temperatures near the surface and aloft should be sufficiently cold for mainly snow, though a touch of sleet can't be ruled out at this point.

For now, it probably makes sense to prepare for some chance of an event similar to last week's, with around 2-4" being about the maximum we'd likely see in the snowiest scenario, and some chance that we don't see accumulating snow if the system dries up as it crosses the mountains or tracks too far north or south of the area. Chances of anything more than 4" are pretty low.

Christmas Snow? Well, two of the long-range models we look to for guidance do indicate the possibility for a storm around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. It's a little too early to say much more than that. Check back in the coming days as we get a better handle on what the storm potential might be.

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Dan Stillman  | December 18, 2010; 12:00 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms  
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Next: Forecast: Pretty cloudy as storm misses

Comments

A couple of inches on Tuesday would be great, but is there no chance that this storm still creeps a bit further north and west than expected today...or that some precip develops in the area? The radar sure looks interesting...snow seems to be creeping towards the DC area.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 18, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

I know you said it is too early to tell about the Christmas eve snowstorm, but when will you post the update? Got a relative coming in on 24th, so I need to find out whether she got to bump up her flight a day earlier or something.
So ETA of your definite forecast??

Posted by: SanDieganLostinDC | December 18, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

no Christmas Eve storm please. I am flying out of Dulles at noon...

Posted by: bmp246 | December 18, 2010 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Hey CWG......a little off-topic, maybe, but is there any way that this web-site's download time can be speeded up a little? Seems to me that there are simply too many unnecessary ads, pictures, windows, boxes, on the side that are blocking and screwing up the download time. It's slow enough (or too slow) even with Broadband, but literally takes forever with dial-up.

And, even when the site does unload fully, scrolling up or down the page is stop-and-go delayed over and over again.

Anybody else notice this, or am I the only one?

Posted by: MMCarhelp | December 18, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

MMCarhelp, I've actually noticed this too. I thought it might be because I switched to Chrome, but I tried it on IE and had the same results. The page gets very laggy as you scroll down, and feels like it takes forever to load initially.

Posted by: bcampbell1324 | December 18, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

@bcampbell1324 & MMCarhelp: Thought it was just me because I have a low DSL connection; but glad to know its not just me.

@CWG Will this be early enough for schools to call off Tuesday, or will the timing look like Thursday too?

Posted by: ArlTeacherSnowman | December 18, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

@bcampbell1324 & MMCarhelp: Thought it was just me because I have a low DSL connection; but glad to know its not just me.

@CWG Will this be early enough for schools to call off Tuesday, or will the timing look like Thursday too?

Posted by: ArlTeacherSnowman | December 18, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Yes - same issues with me as well. Lots of the reason for people double posting, etc. Takes about 5-10 sec. or more to load a comment.

Posted by: greg2010 | December 18, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Change that - I timed it and it takes 20-25 sec.

Posted by: greg2010 | December 18, 2010 2:34 PM | Report abuse

I also have trouble with the page lately, and I have FIOS!

Posted by: megamuphen | December 18, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

MMCarhelp,
i find when using dial-up that peddling (the gilligan's island style electricity generator) faster makes the page load faster. ;-) but seriously folks....

the page is slow and commenting does take a long time to "go through" for me too. i use firefox. when loading, it's always ads i see in the "what's loading bar" across the bottom...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 18, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

Same issues as the rest of you, and my upload/download speed is PLENTY fast. It is fairly annoying that it takes so long for the page to come up, and even longer until I can scroll up or down normally.

Also, can someone please join me in my excitement over the prosepct of a Christmas day storm?? Latest GFS has a full out snow dump with over a foot of snow.

Posted by: 4seams | December 18, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

Hey CWG. I know this is a bit off topic, but any input as to when this abnormally cold pattern will break? I was looking at the NWS long term maps and they seem to be showing the opposite of earlier long term predictions. Now looking at colder than normal temps with equal chances of above/below normal precip. Is the Greenland Block/Negative NAO rendering La Nina a non-factor?

Posted by: retroace | December 18, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

I think that the loading issues might have something to do with coding, since it seems like each entry loads independently in queue. ...But even if it is because of ads, we shouldn't get too upset -- the ombudsman and other articles on that topic from yesterday showed us that the lucrativeness of hyperlocal weather reporting is what's pushing the Post to pay our beloved CWG to do all these posts. I'll take CWG with many ads over tombstone forecasts with fewer ads any day!

...About all these kind models, I really do hope some of them come to fruition. After a childhood mostly deprived of snow except for that big one in the 90s, it'd be nice for snowy DC winters to become the norm not the exception!

Posted by: kolya02 | December 18, 2010 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Biggest issue I'm seeing involves long lead time on posting/multiple posts...as well as slower accessibility...could it be from too many "cookies" [due to advertising] on the site???

Projected "Santapocalypse" Christmas storm looks very intriguing...in addition I have no scheduled dances between Tuesday and New Year's Eve.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 18, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

People who use Firefox as a browser might be interested in an add-on called "noscript". Noscript eliminates most advertising, which is the little bugger that slows things down as all the ads load.

Make it my holiday present, K?

Posted by: ftb3 | December 18, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

And ... it's free!

Posted by: ftb3 | December 18, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

In addition, the "Santapocalypse" threat plus Tuesday's clipper, boost the Bombo snow index from +5 to +6 over the next seven days...regardless of tonight's "bust".

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 18, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

In addition, the "Santapocalypse" threat plus Tuesday's clipper, boost the Bombo snow index from +5 to +6 over the next seven days...regardless of tonight's "bust".

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 18, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Looks to me the current "trend" on the Tue/Wed system is the wrong way. For most of yesterday guidance was looking OK but things are a bit more muddled now. Strong mid-lvl low pressure over the northeast seems to want to rip it apart before it gets here and such. If we can't get decent lift even if we get precip at all temps could be marginal.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 18, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Oh shoot...another double posting...THIS NEEDS TO BE FIXED!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 18, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Agree with folks above - have to fight to load this page on any browser other than firefox - takes ages to load on chrome, keeps re-cycling. Only been a problem for the last 10 days or so - since the day the chance of snow thing was added. Not sure if there's a connection, but that's the timing.

Posted by: josh28 | December 18, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

@Ian-- Are you implying that we'd have rain? I shudder to think what would happen if we had sleet or freezing rain after the nightmare I had on Thursday. Roads on Fort Belvoir (where I work) were barely passable, and 4WD vehicles were going off the roads like a demolition derby.

Posted by: southbridgemom | December 18, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Please, no snow Christmas Eve or Christmas Day! Or...it can snor to the north later on Christmas Day.

I have a reservation on Amtrak's Palmetto to meet a cruise in Charleston, SC. I have to get from Montgomery Village to Union Station early in the morning for the train, and don't want delays heading south.

Posted by: rlguenther | December 18, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Looks like we need to cancel school on Tuesday right now or tomorrow (Sunday) at the latest.

Walter, that is a great sculpture (from link on the previous thread). It reminds me of CWG feeding snow forecasts to the snow lovers here.

Posted by: eric654 | December 18, 2010 5:37 PM | Report abuse

NWS upped to 40% the Tuesday snow probability for JeffCo. Whatever the precip type, I'm rooting for warmer temps to thaw an already-frozen downspout on a problematic NE corner of the house. Looks like we might have to await the usual January thaw.

On the tech issue, I've experienced problems for as long as I've been on this site. In fact, I find the whole WaPo website loads slowly. I don't think it's a user-side problem b/c the NYT loads fast.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 18, 2010 5:59 PM | Report abuse

SNOW! SNOW! SNOW! (puzzled look @ clouds) grrrr..

Posted by: RedCherokee | December 18, 2010 6:22 PM | Report abuse

In addition, the "Santapocalypse" threat plus Tuesday's clipper, boost the Bombo snow index from +5 to +6 over the next seven days...regardless of tonight's "bust".

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 18, 2010 3:52 PM

That better be a promise! :)

Posted by: RedCherokee | December 18, 2010 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Walter, that is a great sculpture (from link on the previous thread). It reminds me of CWG feeding snow forecasts to the snow lovers here.

Posted by: eric654 | December 18, 2010 5:37 PM
------------------
thanks eric. i'm the baby on the left - the one who's frantic little wing is pushing up on the side of the nest to get higher...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 18, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

What will the storm Tuesday do in New England? Flying up to Hartford Wednesday morning for holidays with the in-laws.

Posted by: ianswank | December 18, 2010 7:26 PM | Report abuse

Note about ads slowing things down:
I use the "ad block plus" add-on with the Firefox browser and the "simple ad block" add-on with the IE browser. That will speed things up a lot, especially the add ridden Wash. Post and NY times. These add-ons can be easily downloaded and installed.

Posted by: ronbcust | December 18, 2010 8:36 PM | Report abuse

@ronbcust --

Thanks very much for that tip; I just got the ad block plus add-on and restarted Firefox, and wow! These WaPo pages loaded super-quick!

Posted by: natsncats | December 18, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Thanks so much for the tip about Adblock plus for Firefox. Just downloaded it and things are faster. I still have some ads, though. I guess it blocks some but not all?

Posted by: SubRosa2 | December 18, 2010 9:42 PM | Report abuse

re: slow load speeds--

We'll take a critical look at this and see if there's anything we can do to improve performance. Thanks for the feedback.

@retroace

Indications are that the Greenland block (-NAO) will break down toward the end of December or early January. Will probably turn warmer relative to average at that point. We'll write more on this during the work week.

@ianswank

Tues system might just bring a little light snow to New England-- this is really a minor weather maker and I agree with Ian that signals are mixed for even a light event in DC.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 18, 2010 10:09 PM | Report abuse

This weekend is the 1st anniversary of “snowpocalypse” of December 2009. One week ago, the GFS was predicting a December 2010 “snowpocalypse” II. So much for that. The Canadian model shows another southern bypass out to sea x-mas eve/day. The ECM is somewhere in between the the GFS and Canadian. In this la nina season, if most of the energy is in the weak southern stream (like this weekend), the Canadian will be right. If it’s a strong system, then most of the energy will be from the northern stream (pineapple express), which would be a repeat of the Midwest December 2010 “snowmygod” that deflated the Minneapolis metrodome. Either way, I just don’t see a x-mas eve/day coastal. And the 18Z SAT GFS run trends toward the Canadian (i.e. a repeat of this weekend’s fizzle).

Posted by: ronbcust | December 18, 2010 10:21 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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