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Posted at 10:10 PM ET, 12/25/2010

Snow may be closer to 3" than 6"

By Jason Samenow

Over the next 90 minutes or so, I'll post updates every 15 to 30 minutes right here that include model updates, new insights, and other interesting information streaming into the Weather Gang lab....

11:30 p.m. update:It's been a really long day so I'm going to try to get some sleep before getting up early again. Some final thoughts: Despite the trend toward less shown by the latest models tonight, we still believe we'll have some accumulating snow tomorrow. The higher end totals seem least likely at this point but enough uncertainty remains such that we will be closely following the evolution of the storm and will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments during the day tomorrow.

11:10 p.m. update: This close to the onset of the snow event, we cannot ignore the latest model trends which suggest less snow. We are not changing our accumulation outlook, but believe totals are more likely to be near the low end than the high end west of the Chesapeake Bay. As we've said all along, the uncertainty with this storm is higher than with others so further adjustments - either upward or downward may be necessary even as the event is underway tomorrow.

One thing the latest models do not tend to show is heavy snow banding occurring tomorrow afternoon and evening. Instead, they suggest a light, intermittent snow stretched out over a long period spanning the morning into the evening. If they are right, the risk of snow that accumulates quickly and causes serious impacts may be reduced, especially as you head west.

10:40 p.m. update: The latest GFS is coming in and is EAST of earlier runs indicating less snow. Both the NAM and GFS would now suggest totals would on the low end of our estimates. Need to digest this and look at some other model data coming in before drawing any conclusions.

10:35 p.m. update: One thing we haven't discussed much is the wind, which will increase throughout the day tomorrow. By late afternoon, winds will probably be up to 15-20 mph and 20-25 mph tomorrow night with gusts to 30 mph. The windiest weather comes Monday, when gusts could reach 30 to 40 mph.

10:20 p.m. update: This is the kind of storm where we might see big differences in snow totals between BWI and Dulles, with BWI much more likely to see significant snow than Dulles because it's further to the north and east, closer to the storm center. Also, the storm will get stronger as it moves north hence the blizzard warnings for New York City (forecast for 10-16" of snow) and Boston (forecast for 15-20" of snow). Accuweather is cautioning that the Philadelphia Eagles game tomorrow night against the Vikings (at 8:20 p.m.) may be played in some of the worst conditions ever there for a football game.

10:00 p.m. update: Looking at the latest radar, it appears most of the snow remains south of the metro region - mainly south and southeast of Fairfax, Prince William and Fauquier counties. Light snow has been reported around Fredericksburg, While some of this light snow may gradually make its way into the metro region overnight, the main action is likely to be from mid-to-late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow evening when the coastal low gets going.

Model watchers have probably seen that the latest NAM model simulates not a lot of precip with this storm. Taken literally, it would suggest just a couple inches of snow for D.C. metro, with a little less in the western suburbs and a little more east. However, the SRES model that came out just a few hours early indicated a 80-90% chance of more than 0.5" melted liquid - which would equate to more than 5" of snow. The bottom line is that there is likely to be a sharp gradient with this storm's precipitation field that's very sensitive to the exact track and strength of the low. So it wouldn't take much for us to get more or less than our 3-6" forecast. We're sticking with that 3-6" forecast for the time being.

By Jason Samenow  | December 25, 2010; 10:10 PM ET
Categories:  Latest, Updates  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory posted; accumulation possible tonight/tomorrow
Next: Forecast: White Christmas, a day late

Comments

I am completely geeking out over this storm.

So excited about the forthcoming frequent updates.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 10:11 PM | Report abuse

FIRST!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | December 25, 2010 10:12 PM | Report abuse

Snowlover2, glad you are glued. We are too. Quite a gradient... possibilities still on each side of our 3-6" forecast accumulation estimate. Glad you are still reading. Because this is still an evoloving story, despite being this close to the storm's start.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:13 PM | Report abuse

Looks more like your second, lol.

Posted by: trollboy69 | December 25, 2010 10:14 PM | Report abuse

300_sq_ft, thanks for reading and being involved in our blog...let us know if you have any questions. Hope you are enjoying your holiday, and, travel safely tomorrow if you will be on the move!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

trollboy69, any snow falling at your location? Just curious how far north on I-95 snow flakes are being seen...

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:17 PM | Report abuse

WOW! These models really are still all over the place. Just took a look at the RSM model on accuweather pro...and Henry Magusity is seeing the same thing I am!

http://www.facebook.com/MeteoMadness?v=wall#!/photo.php?fbid=188124357867948&set=a.136292406384477.24179.135790633101321

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 10:17 PM | Report abuse

This is one of the first storms that I can remember in the history of Capital Weather & CapWxGang where it has left you stumped which makes this very intriguing. It still looks like the "bomb" is going to be on the N.J. coast but could that change somewhere further South? Curious and excited to read your blog throughout the next day. I would love to hop a train to NYC tonight to be part of what will likely be a historic blizzard!

Posted by: greg2010 | December 25, 2010 10:18 PM | Report abuse

Almost 2" so far in Williamsburg, it's been snowing off n on since about 3pm. Geeking out a bit myself, hoping for the 10" or so that the NWS is showing for our area: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/winter/totalsnow.png

Can't wait so see how it all unfolds!

Posted by: orduckfan | December 25, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

I have food and football, so I'm hunkered down and ready to go. I'm intrigued as to what we're going to see though - the gradient in this storm is going to be extremely pronounced, which is kind of exciting and terrifying at the same time.

Posted by: joshua-frank | December 25, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

Because this has been such a confusing storm, I'm very interested to read a post-mortem of everything (forecasting wise) that went right and wrong when this is all over.

Posted by: getjiggly2 | December 25, 2010 10:21 PM | Report abuse

No snow yet in Forest Glen, but I'm hoping for as much as possible. NO WORK MONDAY!!!

Posted by: trollboy69 | December 25, 2010 10:22 PM | Report abuse

CYCLOGENISIS is starting to occur..am I WRONG? If that is it..its beautiful!!! Just off the Ga/SC border like the other snowlovers said it looked like....I am starting to see the famous comma shape and a slight tilt FINALLY....maybe the fetch will start riding the coast!!! I am in awe of this...either way ima walk in the dusting or 6 inches 2mrrw to get a coffee.....IM ADDICTED to this damn site!!

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 10:23 PM | Report abuse

According to Magusity the storm is over Florida deeper then the NAM. It's 1004 mb NAM had it at 1008mb.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 10:23 PM | Report abuse

greg2010 - the atmosphere is certainly displaying an exceptional reminder that it is ruled with mathematical probabilities and chaotic equations! Just when we thought our technology had made leaps & bounds in the last 20 years, Mother Nature reminds us of the awe-inspiring complexities involved with forming these storms. And yes, probabilities that the atmosphere's energy will fuse together for large snows in the Northeast, much higher than here in DC.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:23 PM | Report abuse

Cwg, your updates have been crucial for me bumping my flight from tomorrow to today and am on the plane to bwi as we speak. Last year I got stuck in Vegas for a week in February because I couldn't get back. I had a bad feeling that this time would be the same. With all the uncertainty we could get slammed with a foot or get hardly an inch or two, so im playing it safe. Question: as snow starts falling to our south doesn't that moisture in the air have a sort of compounding effect and make the atmosphere more conducive to snow?

Posted by: SteveinAtown | December 25, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

you CWG guys deserve a nice day off for working everyday, day and night... even on Christmas! The fact that you guys were up at all hours of the night on Christmas/Christmas eve is very admirable.
Let's vote for our favorite local weather source:
A. ABC7
B. Capital Weather Gang
C. FOX5
D. NBC4
E. CBS9
I vote for... Drum roll... B!! Capital Weather Gang all the way!!!!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 10:27 PM | Report abuse

Currently all clear in Carlyle neighborhood, Alexandria VA.

CWG, what should we expect here tomorrow? Normally the DC metro area prediction applies to us pretty well but for this storm it's sounding like being 10mi south of the city could make a non-trivial difference. What do you reckon?

Posted by: eliwho | December 25, 2010 10:27 PM | Report abuse

@SteveinAtown

The snow to the south doesn't do it for us. We need to moisture to start working its way in here from some forcing mechanism. Right now, there's not a strong push, so it's going to take its time. We'll need more dynamics and development of the coastal storm to really get this going.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:28 PM | Report abuse

GFS coming in any minute now...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 10:29 PM | Report abuse

I am in upstate NY right now (about 80 miles north of NY city). If I leave early tomorrow morning and drive the Pennsylvania (84 to 81 to 83), might that be an OK route to miss some of the worst snow (heading to Alexandria)? I am hopeful that if I avoid the New Jersey Turnpike, leave early enough and travel west then south that I might be OK. Any guidance would be greatly appreciated!

Posted by: JLF03 | December 25, 2010 10:30 PM | Report abuse

I'm supposed to be driving back from Cincinnati to DC tomorrow, and I am having a horrible time deciding if I should try for it or not. It looks like the snow won't cause me any problems (taking I-68/70 most of the way) until Maryland, but I won't be getting back into the area until late afternoon/early evening, which is the time estimated to be the heaviest snowfall, correct? Should I try to make arrangements to stick in Ohio until Monday, or do you think it will be driveable? Thanks!!

Posted by: ksdonnellon | December 25, 2010 10:30 PM | Report abuse

CWG: what are the Vegas odds on my 11:20 flight from Albany to dca? I'm betting the kids college tuition on your response.

Posted by: gfree13 | December 25, 2010 10:30 PM | Report abuse

C'mon GFS!!!!!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 10:31 PM | Report abuse

CWG guys... curious what your thoughts are of the latest RSM model that Magusity tweeted about. Looks to be about an inch of liquid as far west as Carroll County. With ratios over 10:1 possible...well...it's just one model, but any thoughts? I know other models should be rolling in soon.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 10:31 PM | Report abuse

I'm up in NJ for Christmas and my mother in law is set on leaving us tomorrow AM to drive down home to the Hampton Roads area. Any chance you'll side with me and tell her that driving in to a snow storm with 2 dogs isn't the best idea?

Posted by: kmill67 | December 25, 2010 10:32 PM | Report abuse

All your analysis and updating over the last few days has really been interesting. Thanks for making meteorology a little more accessible! You all clearly love your jobs and work hard for us, so thank you!

Posted by: kersl | December 25, 2010 10:37 PM | Report abuse

Will there be strong winds in the metro area tomorrow when this storm starts intensifying?
That would make things much worse for travel and probably everything else outdoors.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 25, 2010 10:39 PM | Report abuse

*sides*
Nothing says "don't travel" quite like a blizzard warning across much of the Northeast. This is one way to die.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 25, 2010 10:39 PM | Report abuse

@eliwho, my condo is in the Carlyle neighborhood- I'm in Ashburn now for the holidays.

With how crazy and tight things will be with this system, even though I am not that far, I think the two neighborhoods will show a big diff in snowfall amounts. I'll be checking this blog tomorrow, hoping you'll describe conditions there.

Camden, I am glued, which is problematic, seeing how I should get sleep at some point. I can't help it though, just waiting to see what will unfold :)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Just stuck my head outside and we have light flurries in Ft Washington, MD with a dusting on the cars. Its not much, but a start!

Posted by: ftwash | December 25, 2010 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Hunkering down in Ohio for an extra day. Tuesday should be good and clear for the drive, no? I'm jealous! I want to be home hunkered down by the fireplace cooking something that takes all day...:)

Posted by: SPS1 | December 25, 2010 10:40 PM | Report abuse

GFS...through the next 18 hours...doesn't look good from what I'm seeing. Stinking GFS. 24-36 hours loading now.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 10:41 PM | Report abuse

Missing CWG.....

Left D.C. a couple of days ago for the mountains of Western NC. We got 7" today and still coming down (but only lightly). We are in TN boarder counties (Yancey), North of Asheville. Lovin' the snow, but no good weather blogs that I know of down here and no idea what to expect between now and Monday.

Anybody from CWG got a prediction for NC mountains along TN boarder and up I-81? If not, at least a rec for someone down here who I should be reading? Not sure how to plan my return home to D.C.

Posted by: DCcola | December 25, 2010 10:42 PM | Report abuse

@Kmill67 I was in Williamsburg this afternoon - started snowing about 3 pm and was sticking! 64 west was backing up when I left around 6 from people trying to get out. hardly anyone was coming east on 64. They are forecasting 6-10 inches for the entire Hampton Roads area. I'm not CWG, but suggest that your Mother-in-Law stick around a few days where she is!

Posted by: mamory1975 | December 25, 2010 10:43 PM | Report abuse

RE: wind - thank u Jason. Perfect timing.
Have to get some rest now. It will be a tiring day tomorrow spent hyperventilating beside a window.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 25, 2010 10:43 PM | Report abuse

Almost 1 1/2 inches in Richmond county. Its still a very light snow but continuous.

Posted by: mmsq | December 25, 2010 10:44 PM | Report abuse

A couple flurries starting in Fairfax City even though radar not showing it here yet.

Posted by: dudster89 | December 25, 2010 10:44 PM | Report abuse

@Snowlover2 I'll do my best! We'll be holding down the fort here in Carlyle.

Posted by: eliwho | December 25, 2010 10:44 PM | Report abuse

AAARRRGGGGHHHH!!!!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 10:44 PM | Report abuse

Light snow just getting going in Lake Ridge - moving into Fairfax.

Posted by: ZmanVA | December 25, 2010 10:45 PM | Report abuse

GFS loaded through 30 hours...precip totals look lighter for the area. Sure hope the CWG guys disagree with me and/or the storm proves the GFS wrong. There are a couple of other model supporting more precip.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 10:47 PM | Report abuse

I thought it was snow, but the wind blow the packing peanuts out of the Xmas boxes in the trash.

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 10:47 PM | Report abuse

@eliwho-

We cross posted. The 'AAARRRGGGGHHHH!!!!' was in reference to the GFS...

Glad you will be holding down the fort :D

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 25, 2010 10:47 PM | Report abuse

@kmill67

That drive doesn't sound like a great idea to me tomorrow. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 10:48 PM | Report abuse

I give up on this storm... I'm going to bed. Maybe a surprise will await me in the morning.

Signing off for tonight,
Bob Miller

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 25, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

No surprise on the latest GFS....the radar is showing that! Thanks for the awesome updates CWG gang and taking ur time with all of us...especially that annoying rscpc84 dude....I will take my 2 inches over Nothing :) Happy Holidays everyone....so glad we had our morning lite snow today. Safe travels to all the family members, especially up in New England

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

I know you guys dislike giving travel advice, but what do you think the conditions will be like at the airports mid-day Monday?

Thanks so much for all of your hard work throughout the entire year!!

Posted by: irishprincess122 | December 25, 2010 10:50 PM | Report abuse

I WANT SNOW!!!! I am right on the line of big and little amounts....the uncertainty in weather KILLS me!! I hope Stafford gets SOMETHING good!!!

Posted by: Hopin4Snow | December 25, 2010 10:52 PM | Report abuse

I saw some sugar plum fairies melting in the road salt. It was a horrible sight to see.

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 10:55 PM | Report abuse

"I saw some sugar plum fairies melting in the road salt."

A fairies sugar plums melting?? What?? ;)

- Ray

Posted by: rmcazz | December 25, 2010 10:57 PM | Report abuse

what's the qpf for DC on the latest gfs??

Posted by: BH99 | December 25, 2010 11:00 PM | Report abuse

So the JMA, SREF, and RSM favor more precipitation further west and the GFS and NAM take the heavier precip east. Do the first few models still give us hope CWG guys? Guess there's always an outside chance the Euro will move west.

Posted by: DLO1975 | December 25, 2010 11:01 PM | Report abuse

Thing is tracking East. Not good. :( After a week of watching models and the hype (on other sites) I am done! Peace out!

Posted by: greg2010 | December 25, 2010 11:02 PM | Report abuse

WAHOO!!!! IT'S STARTING TO SNOW IN WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191!!!

Posted by: lisajulia | December 25, 2010 11:02 PM | Report abuse

Look at the radar. It is clearly moving east and barely touching DC. Forget about it. Way past my bedtime. Mommy!

Posted by: johng1 | December 25, 2010 11:05 PM | Report abuse

About 1/2" in NW Spotsy, has been snowing a little over 6 hrs. 31 degrees.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 25, 2010 11:08 PM | Report abuse

Dedicated to ALL the SNOWLOVERS out there who were fooled by the Euro and GFS....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LR80EEsWauU

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 25, 2010 11:08 PM | Report abuse

We've had light snow in North Beach, MD (Calvert county) since around 9 pm. Light dusting.

Posted by: SubRosa2 | December 25, 2010 11:09 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the many updates on the holiday, CWG!

Now I'm starting to wonder if I should pack right now instead of waiting until Monday to try to come back due to the wind. This storm could not have come at a worse time for the millions of people traveling for the holiday.

Posted by: starletta8 | December 25, 2010 11:10 PM | Report abuse

Are people calling 'bust' on this already?

Posted by: trollboy69 | December 25, 2010 11:11 PM | Report abuse

@JLF03

That seems like a pretty good route. Might be best if you can plan to arrive home by around noon or so. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 11:12 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Dan! I think she'll finally listen. I'm blessed to have a great MIL and so I don't want anything to happen, plus she's skipping out on her best friend's party if she leaves. You rock for being the Dear Abby of snow travel advice!

Posted by: kmill67 | December 25, 2010 11:13 PM | Report abuse

@dccola,
I'm in burnsville for Christmas. We have 5+ so far. We'll come out winners down here compared to DC. Wait until the nw flow gets kickin Sunday. You need to check out raysweather.com. best resource for the nc mtns

Posted by: pl48870 | December 25, 2010 11:14 PM | Report abuse

Are people calling 'bust' on this already?
-trollboy69
---------------

As long as Walter in Falls Church gets enough for a bust, I'm happy. (In honor of Boxing Day, perhaps a bust of The Great White Hope would be in order).

Posted by: AsymptoticUnlimited | December 25, 2010 11:15 PM | Report abuse

I see the ppl are saying the GFS/NAM are showing the track shift to the West, but I heard if the storm is getting strong then the track will be more WEST, but then I'm hearing the GFS/NAM still have some errors... Now I'm very confused at this time!

Posted by: MNguyen6551 | December 25, 2010 11:16 PM | Report abuse

Light snow in south alexandria between old town and mt. Vernon....

Posted by: dcburgh | December 25, 2010 11:16 PM | Report abuse

Thanks so much! When I do leave (whether tomorrow morning or after the storm passes) I'll probably take that route anyway. Thanks so much for the guidance!

Posted by: JLF03 | December 25, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

I'm in Virginia Beach now and need to drive back up to DC tomorrow? Will I be riding the whole storm all the way up? Should I leave super early in the morning to avoid the brunt of it?

Posted by: marathonlady | December 25, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

Flight changed, now scheduled to arrive ~ 1330, fingers crossed.

Posted by: see1 | December 25, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

@marathonlady

It will be worst in SE Va early to midday and probably the worst in DC late. Not sure you're going to see a great window.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 11:24 PM | Report abuse

don't lose faith snow lovers, the weather never does the EXACT same thing twice. Live near winchester, va and have 8 plows employed by vdot; going to finish repairing my tire chains as i have faith we're going to get the three necesary inches for them to call us out all the way out here in the west. keep snow dancin!!!

Thanks CWG, many of the televised forecasters can learn from you

Posted by: vtjudyz | December 25, 2010 11:29 PM | Report abuse

AsymptoticUnlimited...;-) 3"++ please. more would be nice. these are the last few days of a crazy weather year.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 25, 2010 11:30 PM | Report abuse

@pl48870
Can't thank you enough for the rec...in Burnsville area as well. Will cross my fingers for the NW flow to kick into gear tomorrow, just hope that don't get stuck up on mountain too long. And if I do, wish I had Walter's scupting talent.

Posted by: DCcola | December 25, 2010 11:32 PM | Report abuse

$10 the next feed says "Oh it moved west again! More snow!"

I think you guys need new non-wishy washy models.

I'm just looking at national radar and it doesn't look like it's going east to me. Look like it's going right up the coast.

Posted by: rmcazz | December 25, 2010 11:32 PM | Report abuse

No snow in IAD yet..... Will update in the morning.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 11:33 PM | Report abuse

It has definately picked up out there over the last hour in Ft Washington. We have fine light snow and it is sticking to cars, roofs and driveways now.

Posted by: ftwash | December 25, 2010 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Still light snow in Lake Ridge. Cars covered - side streets starting to get covered as well.

Posted by: ZmanVA | December 25, 2010 11:40 PM | Report abuse

it's just starting to get its spin on! thats something that gives this alot of uncertainty is how much moisture will be spun back inland. and what if it starts stalling hard again compared to what the models say as its done so far this week???

Posted by: vtjudyz | December 25, 2010 11:40 PM | Report abuse

Let me get this straight.... From the beginning,

1. There is a large system coming

2. Anything from nothing to a foot

3. Still no clue

4. Meh... Still no clue

5. Ooh... It's going out to sea not much snow if any..

6. Getting closer. But not much snow

7. Hey, about 6 inches. Great

8. Oooh no it's going back out to sea... Never mind. 4 inches

9. Yep, 4 inches, but we may have a different story evolving AS THE SNOW FALLS tomorrow.

I think that pretty much raps up what I have been reading and blogging. About for 4 days. Wow..... Heck of a turn of events. CWG you're awesome... Nobody was expecting you to try this hard, and I believe I can speak for all of the snow junkies when I say that you really went above and beyond on this one.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 11:47 PM | Report abuse

Let me get this straight.... From the beginning,

1. There is a large system coming

2. Anything from nothing to a foot

3. Still no clue

4. Meh... Still no clue

5. Ooh... It's going out to sea not much snow if any..

6. Getting closer. But not much snow

7. Hey, about 6 inches. Great

8. Oooh no it's going back out to sea... Never mind. 4 inches

9. Yep, 4 inches, but we may have a different story evolving AS THE SNOW FALLS tomorrow.

I think that pretty much raps up what I have been reading and blogging. About for 4 days. Wow..... Heck of a turn of events. CWG you're awesome... Nobody was expecting you to try this hard, and I believe I can speak for all of the snow junkies when I say that you really went above and beyond on this one.

Posted by: SnowDreamer | December 25, 2010 11:48 PM | Report abuse

Looking at all the models and running the scenarios on my computer, the storm continues to push further east, develops later than anticipated and the Metro DC area will only see a dusting to 1" Sorry snow lovers this is not the big one for us. NYC and Boston are going to get hammered though!

Posted by: Firedude | December 25, 2010 11:55 PM | Report abuse

So...yesterday predictions were for basically nothing. As today progresses, the prediction suddenly changes from nothing to a significant snow event. Now late tonight, it's back to a more minimal event.

Got to love the forecasting in this city. No wonder people can never plan properly or have a decent forecast when it comes to weather. I'm in western Ffx county and need to be in Rockville, MD early in the morning. And as of right now, I still can't get an accurate forecast from anywhere about what it's supposed to do, and when.

I guess I'll do what people have done for centuries, get up in the morning and look out the window. That's about the best bet around here.

Posted by: jollyroger2 | December 25, 2010 11:55 PM | Report abuse

Looking at all the models and running the scenarios on my computer, the storm continues to push further east, develops later than anticipated and the Metro DC area will only see 1" - 2" max. Sorry snow lovers this is not the big one for us. NYC and Boston are going to get hammered though!

Posted by: Firedude | December 25, 2010 11:56 PM | Report abuse

@SnowDreamer

Thanks for the really nice words. We have been working hard and appreciate the feedback. Time to grab 5 or 6 hours of much needed sleep...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 25, 2010 11:56 PM | Report abuse

Back to the DC winters we're all use to....Bust.

Posted by: tjack55 | December 26, 2010 12:08 AM | Report abuse

very important storm-related question here:

who's the cutie in the 11:31pm accuweather update?

as the storm develops, I think it's important that we see more of her and less Rayno/Bastardi

Posted by: TGT11 | December 26, 2010 12:14 AM | Report abuse

You need to be more KIND to the CWG folks!!!! THEY WORK THEir ASSESSSS OFF!!! people ask them about travel, and when to take their damn dumps!!! GET OVER IT!!! ITS WEATHER!!! Don't take it out on the CWG gang and don't hate ON each other! OUTTA CONTROL......DAMN THE GFS!!! hehehehe

Posted by: Crazy4weather33 | December 26, 2010 12:15 AM | Report abuse

Light snow falling in aa. Hope we see a lot more.

Posted by: clarkjr | December 26, 2010 12:18 AM | Report abuse

The worst part is not that the storm is a bust for us, but rather that it will materialize for the Northeastern cities. I guess this is how its supposed to be, unlike last year. A huge storm just to our south and it will somehow skirt us. I feel like Richmond tonight for a snow lover...very frustrated after days of hoping.

Posted by: rocotten | December 26, 2010 12:19 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Jason!

Posted by: stinkyliberals | December 26, 2010 12:21 AM | Report abuse

If the storm "busts"...just blame La Nina!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 26, 2010 12:22 AM | Report abuse

With all the model flip-flopping with this storm perhaps it should be dubbed "The John Kerry Storm"!

Posted by: buzzburek | December 26, 2010 12:24 AM | Report abuse

Agreement with the CWG love.

I remain amazed that they took time from Christmas Day to keep us as updated as they have been.

Mind you, I know it's a labor of love, but still -- many, many thanks CWG!

My sense is that this storm - should it become one - is not the easily predicted snow bombs of 1996 or last February.

Plus I love how they don't tap into the PANIC NOW BREAD MILK TOILET PAPER PANIC NOW mentality of the TV stations.

Posted by: Georgetwoner | December 26, 2010 12:24 AM | Report abuse

Snowing lightly in Manassas now. A very light dusting on the cars. Keep up the great work CWG!

Posted by: c_t_w30 | December 26, 2010 12:44 AM | Report abuse

I've been lurking the whole time, but following very closely. Thanks, Camden, Dan, Jason, and the rest of the CWG, great, great job (as usual).

Posted by: MikeinDC2 | December 26, 2010 1:00 AM | Report abuse

It is interesting to compare to the February 6th storm of last year with this storm. In the Feb 6th storm the radar image showed more of a north/south storm--see the radar image in this article http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2010/02/worried_washingtonians_clear_o.html

The current storm is heading from the southwest to the northeast taking dead aim at cape cod http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Its a shame the redskins, ravens, giants, jets and patriots are playing away games tomorrow.

Posted by: Dan7130 | December 26, 2010 1:01 AM | Report abuse

jollyroger2-
Did you read any of the actual blog posts at any point today? The CWG guys have constantly acknowledged that this is a particularly difficult storm to forecast, and as such, have chosen to not take a firm stance on one particular prediction. Would you rather have a definitive forecast that ends up being completely wrong and causes you to change your plans unnecessarily? There are plenty of types of weather that are pretty easy to predict, but some storms, like this one, are by their vary nature unpredictable.

I have been following this site for years, especially before and during snow events, and I find them to be, by far, the best resource for the most detailed and most constantly updated snow forecasts for our region. And they get it right a lot of the time too.

Posted by: mdskater | December 26, 2010 1:44 AM | Report abuse

Hey Everyone! It's almost 1:45 AM and I'm still up..... This storm is a bit confusing to me, but hopefully someone on this board/chat can answer a question and/or statement.... Here to goes....

I see the Coastal Low is intensifying/strengthens as we speak (It's now 1001.7 and when it reaches Long Island it supposed to be 970 (I'm assuming), according to the GFS/NAM the low is intensifying quickly then what the model is forecasting, now correct me if I'm right and/or wrong if the Low is stronger/intensifying then that's a good thing for snow lover that means the track will be more WESTERN then EASTERN....

So with that statement then the GFS/NAM is wrong with the track and how fast the Low is Intensifying/strengthens, I don;t know I might be wrong....

We will see if the forecast needs to be tweeted again snowfall wise...

I just need to know that information.

Posted by: Michael_Nguyen | December 26, 2010 1:44 AM | Report abuse

I'm surprised NWS in Sterling didn't take down the warnings or advisories given that at 955pm they said..WILL WAIT UNTIL
THE REST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMES IN BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS
ON WHETHER TO CHANGE FCSTD SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLY HEADLINES.
no update came from them and so we'll have the winter storm warning up for at least the next few hours..even though it seems we may not even get an inch at this point!!

Posted by: BH99 | December 26, 2010 1:45 AM | Report abuse

Its a shame the redskins, ravens, giants, jets and patriots are playing away games tomorrow.

Posted by: Dan7130 | December 26, 2010 1:01 AM

No, it's a blessing because no one needs to clog up the roads just for a game.

Posted by: RedCherokee | December 26, 2010 1:59 AM | Report abuse

Just a quick regional observation, I'm in PW county a couple of miles west of I95. Had some light snow beginning around 1100 and now the snow has stopped and I can see the moon clear as a bell. Looks to me like this storm is going to develop further east and we will be lucky to see a couple of inches.

Posted by: pwilly | December 26, 2010 2:02 AM | Report abuse

said we may not see an inch...scratch that..we may not see more than a flurry

Posted by: BH99 | December 26, 2010 2:07 AM | Report abuse

COME ON SNOW!!!! :) My Hopes are still high! We are gonna get more than what the TV Weather have listed!!! :))

Posted by: 882181 | December 26, 2010 2:11 AM | Report abuse

OUT TO SEA!

Posted by: greg2010 | December 26, 2010 2:15 AM | Report abuse

yeah greg2010...looks like even the MD Eastern Shore may get nothing, eh?!!

Posted by: BH99 | December 26, 2010 2:18 AM | Report abuse

You know what? I'm going to say it. I'm tired of this storm already and it hasn't even happened yet. As much as I love snow and the thought of snow, I'm tired of it's wishy-washiness. Get a plan, storm, and stick with it. If you are going to cause a blizzard, cause a blizzard. If you are going to go out to sea, go out to sea. But again, I'm tired. I'm ready for this one to be done with and warmer temperatures to follow. SO. OVER. IT. This is worse than a bad relationship.

All that said, CWG - You rock! :)

Posted by: Rcmorgan | December 26, 2010 2:19 AM | Report abuse

Total BUST!! This is just the first Bust of the season, with more to follow. ahhhhhh

Posted by: HOOKS2 | December 26, 2010 2:23 AM | Report abuse

Reports of initialization errors on the GFS/NAM models degrade their forecast! The Euro still has the storm treading west.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Forecast

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML

Posted by: MVPlaya8120 | December 26, 2010 2:34 AM | Report abuse

i will state the obvious for the second night in a row. I am throwing in the towel for any serious snow in Alexandria.Gov. will not shutdowm, schools will not be closed ( for snow, they are closed for the holiday)

Posted by: pvogel88 | December 26, 2010 2:36 AM | Report abuse

LOL. Going to bed. Unfortunately for me this is all very addictive. Going to bed now. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Thanks for your hard work, CWG! :)

Posted by: Rcmorgan | December 26, 2010 2:54 AM | Report abuse

I appreciate all the extra hours you folks are putting in! Happy Holidays, CWG!

Posted by: alusiv | December 26, 2010 3:57 AM | Report abuse

That's too bad about the storm, maybe next time...

Posted by: hawknt | December 26, 2010 4:33 AM | Report abuse

My prediction was 100% accurate. No snow.

Posted by: johng1 | December 26, 2010 5:30 AM | Report abuse

82 degrees in Rio...

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 26, 2010 7:08 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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