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Posted at 3:40 PM ET, 12/15/2010

PM Update: Still cold, waiting on snow

By Ian Livingston

Cold and wind relaxed a little today, but only to the point where it's hardly been noticeable. Abundant sunshine helped nose temperatures near or above 30 today, with downtown right around the freezing mark. It's still plenty cold though and the stage is set for our first widespread accumulation event of the season. In preparation, winter weather advisories have already been issued across the southern suburbs for tomorrow.


Snowfall accumulation forecast for tomorrow's storm system as of 3:30 p.m.

Through Tonight: Clouds with the system are still well west so we probably stay pretty clear through midnight. This, and lessening wind, allows temperatures to dive back through the 20s. After midnight we see a steady increase in clouds, and we're cloudy by morning with a growing risk of light snow. Lows reach the middle teens in the colder suburbs to the low 20s downtown.

Tomorrow (Thursday): We may start just cloudy, but light snow overspreads the region from southwest to northeast during the morning (by 7-10 a.m.) and continues much of the day before tapering during the late afternoon or evening. Temperatures are cold, with highs in the mid-and-upper 20s. We should end up in the 1-2" range most spots D.C. and south with a few higher reports possible. Generally, look for less going north and bigger numbers south.

See Matt Rogers' forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

How cold? Yesterday's high temperatures were the coldest the region has seen since the "cold snow" event last year. National, Dulles, and Baltimore-Washington hit 28, 25, and 28 respectively compared to 23, 21 and 21 last Jan 30. The 25 at Dulles also tied (with 2005) for a low maximum temperature for Dec. 14. Thanks to Chris Laudicina for portions of this info.

Check back later for another update on tomorrow's snow event. We'll have a SchoolCast this evening.

By Ian Livingston  | December 15, 2010; 3:40 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Snow update: Timeline, Impacts, and FAQs

Comments

Ian, DC is at 33 degrees right now, so it did break the freezing mark per NWS. Anyway, IMO, I would edge the 2-5" zone north just a tad per the SREFs. Also, any idea on SR's? I see the 850s's are in the -6 to -8 area for us

Matt

Posted by: yodamatt | December 15, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Thx, I wrote that before the 3p ob and didnt even look again. I just pulled the line since it's meaningless now!

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

I hope it snows. So ready for the magical landscape transformation that only snow can bring.
Ready for some sledding too.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 15, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Please tell me I won't have a problem driving my sister from Silver Spring to BWI early Friday morning?

Posted by: maralenenok | December 15, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

These types of storms are incredibly hard to forecast. I have seen these turn into 6 inches plus and give us nothing but a few flurries. Lets hope we get the former this time!

Posted by: rapotter | December 15, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

It's a good forecast every other day so with this up and down trend, we're in great shape for some heavy snowfall on Sunday...that's my conclusion, which means nothing to anyone I'm sure.

Posted by: parksndc | December 15, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

I am already approved for a telework from home day for tomm...live down in Spotsy...hoping for 5+...prepared for a bust

Posted by: panthersny | December 15, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Since it looks like this weekend storm is going to be a "non-issue", can we look ahead to Christmas Eve/Christmas? Accuweather has snow in their forecast for that time frame. Any thoughts on that possibility????

Posted by: CJWill1 | December 15, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Since it looks like this weekend storm is going to be a "non-issue", can we look ahead to Christmas Eve/Christmas? Accuweather has snow in their forecast for that time frame. Any thoughts on that possibility????

Posted by: CJWill1 | December 15, 2010 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Nice - I like the trend at 24 hours out. As I always say, give me the cold air and I'll find the precip. Stuff that's forecast to miss us to the south seems (in my once-a-local-schoolboy mind) somehow more likely to overperform than systems that track to our northwest and promise, at best, a changeover to a wintry mix.

Posted by: dickinyobooty69 | December 15, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

what are the chances that this winter weather advisory gets upgraded to a winter storm warning down toward the cville area??

Posted by: cpm2cv | December 15, 2010 5:27 PM | Report abuse

@cpm2cv

Maybe 20-30% chance of winter storm warning around cville. To me looks like a 3" maybe 4" type of event there...that falls a bit short.

@CJWill1

Pattern looks cold. Beyond that, can't say much about day-to-day weather details.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Update on my observation this a.m.: There's a LOT of ice on the Potomac River in JeffCo, W.Va. I was surprised by the extent of it when I went exploring today. It's cold!

Posted by: tinkerbelle | December 15, 2010 5:45 PM | Report abuse

No offense meant but ... it's really jarring to read a reasoned and cogent comment and then realize it comes from someone screen-named "dickinyobooty69."

Posted by: mhardy1 | December 15, 2010 6:01 PM | Report abuse

mhardy1 - I wondered if anyone would notice that screen name.
The snow prognostications seem to bring out some unusual posters.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 15, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

so here in madison va are we on the edge of the heavy side of the snowfall, or just west of the heavy stuff? looks like every time the maps is up, we are in the lighter side of the storm, but end up geting slammed.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | December 15, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

any chance of delay on friday?

Posted by: fortheglory | December 15, 2010 6:19 PM | Report abuse

@fortheglory

Only a very small chance...maybe a slightly better (but still small) chance of an early dismissal tomorrow.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2010 6:39 PM | Report abuse

Thanks

Another question...
Say the weekend storm came together (I hope) would it be a 1 foot thing or 4 inch thing?
Thanks

Posted by: fortheglory | December 15, 2010 6:51 PM | Report abuse

Hmm... has anyone looked at the GFNS ensemble 17.2Z? Things aren't looking very well, but we'll have to wait until the 24 1/3 Z run comes out.

Posted by: WeatherNut1974 | December 15, 2010 6:58 PM | Report abuse

fortheglory - I would reduce expectations for the weekend storm at this time. Low end of your guess, but confidence, though growing, is not high yet as to whether the storm grazes us or heads out to sea.

WeatherNut1974 - This close-in to the event, it is worth looking at more than one model run. If you see the pattern maintained in the next run, then you can draw a line between those two points and start reducing snow estimates.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

This storm for tomorrow looks to be heading a little further North than anticipated any thoughts??

Posted by: cpm2cv | December 15, 2010 7:59 PM | Report abuse

Wonder how many people guessed first the 1" of snow at DCA would be on 12/16, when CWG had the snowguess contest a couple of weeks ago. That was my guess. Hope (a) I'm right and (b) others guessed this date as well.

Putting the cart before the shovel, snowball fight at Dupont Circle at 6 p.m., Thursday, anyone? Though if it actually does snow tomorrow, the snow may be too dry to make plumpy snowballs. (I wonder if there is such a thing as spit snowballs?)

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | December 15, 2010 8:06 PM | Report abuse

Winter Weather Advisories now up

Posted by: fortheglory | December 15, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

I'm supposed to be flying into DCA tomorrow at 7:15... any guesses at how badly the snow will affect air travel?

Posted by: sreed09 | December 15, 2010 8:33 PM | Report abuse

I'm supposed to be flying into DCA tomorrow at 7:15 PM... any guesses at how badly the snow will affect air travel?

Posted by: sreed09 | December 15, 2010 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Dust off the apples...maybe an early release?

Posted by: ArlTeacherSnowman | December 15, 2010 8:44 PM | Report abuse

Any chance this can shift north any more to get us into the 6 inch range?

Posted by: fortheglory | December 15, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

An early release would be SO NICE!

Posted by: icecubedownthetoilet | December 15, 2010 8:52 PM | Report abuse

Probably, a slightly stronger system tomorrow, especially out to sea, reduces the chances for the weekend.

8pm - 21 degrees and increasing cirrus clouds.

Looking at 2 - 4 inches tomorrow in the Valley.

Posted by: AugustaJim | December 15, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

So of all the local DC tv mets Doug Kammerer is the 1st to say no storm this weekend. He said it yesterday numerous times and in all his forecasts today. So Kammerer of NBC 4 is the 1st met in DC to call weekend a no snow event.

On a side not, looks like tomorrows storms totals keep going up. What about this dry cold air, will it do nothing to flatten out this storm?

Im hearing anywhere from a trace to 1 inch, to 1-3 inches. Although looking at the models, we seem to be in precip most of the day and night thursday and still precip overhead into friday... am I seeing that right, or is that just models showing green that wont hit the ground?.... How many hours of snow can we expect?

Posted by: KRUZ | December 15, 2010 9:03 PM | Report abuse

just viewed the 0z NAM, it trended a little north this run. current radar looks a little better for dc as well. still looks like the bulk will be south of dc, but we might get into the action here.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 15, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

just viewed the 0z NAM, it trended a little north this run. current radar looks a little better for dc as well. still looks like the bulk will be south of dc, but we might get into the action here.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 15, 2010 9:05 PM | Report abuse

18z NAM changes very little on qpf, but this is elementary......

Posted by: AugustaJim | December 15, 2010 9:11 PM | Report abuse

make that 00z NAM

Posted by: AugustaJim | December 15, 2010 9:14 PM | Report abuse

Mhardy1 - I have to do something about this screen name. My old handle was "fleeciewool," but for some reason I could no longer post using that one anymore. So I ended up using someone else's, and thus far I've been too lazy to re-register with a new name, although I'm not at all crazy about my current one.

Posted by: dickinyobooty69 | December 15, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

@sreed09

Don't expect too many flight problems by 7:15 p.m. - maybe just a couple backlash delays.

@KRUZ

The models have us in precip from roughly mid-morning through late afternoon tomorrow. Not sure you're seeing things correctly if you're getting a much wider window than that.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2010 10:41 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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