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Posted at 3:10 PM ET, 12/28/2010

PM Update: Warming trend well underway

By Jason Samenow

The chill in the air today was less than predicted, but I'm hearing few complaints. Afternoon readings soared into mid-40s and, for only the third time this month, were warmer than average. Winds have remained strong, but are slowly trending weaker. Winds tomorrow are fairly light as even milder air moves in.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Skies are clear and it's cold - especially this evening with some winds from the west gusting as high as 15-20 mph. But by morning, winds are only 5-10 mph as low temperatures drop to the low 20s in the colder suburbs to the upper 20s downtown.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Chances are good it's around the warmest day since the first of the month (47 on Dec. 11, 65 on Dec. 1)! Under sunny skies, highs reach the mid-to-upper 40s And those gusty winds are history. Breezes are light from the west at only10 mph.

See Matt Rogers' forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Non-storm name: After nearly 1000 votes, the most popular name for Sunday's non-storm was "No-mageddon" (submitted by walter-in-fallschurch) which received just over one fifth (22 percent) of votes. The two runner-ups, with 17 percent of the vote respectively, were "Snowtease" (submitted by mkbf26) and "'Snope" (submitted by DMTerp02). Thanks to all for sending in submissions and voting.

By Jason Samenow  | December 28, 2010; 3:10 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: New research points to cold January-March

Comments

I know after this last storm thinking about long range predictions borders on insanity, but I was wondering about the rumors circulating around the premonitions for mildness concerning the remainder of the season.

On one hand I've heard that we're in a La Nina winter, which surely bodes well for warm temps, but on the other I've heard of the strong North Atlantic Oscillation continuing from last season.

I've seen mainly average predictions for our area in terms of temperature and snowfall, with most predictions going from cold to mild throughout the course of January. But what about February? And how accurate is the Farmer's Almanac usually? They have us as cold and snowy this winter.

Any discussion expanded upon those two topics, along with any thoughts on what may transpire for the remainder of the season? I'm really hoping to see snow one last time before I move this spring.

Posted by: bbirnbau | December 28, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Jason,

My memory of the last several days is a blur, but weren't you the first person to come up with the name No-maggedon? I think I read it in a comment.

Sorry if that is not correct.

If not, do we know who was the first?

Posted by: jaybird926 | December 28, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

My neighbor and I, both victims of the dreaded Ice Dam last February, are both feeling quite relieved to have avoided the 20-30 inches our northern neighbors just received. At 44 today, it was almost balmy for the trip to the dump. I'll take the forecast for the next week, no problem.

However, the humidity at 28% is down right desert-like, and my head is feeling it since yesterday after that front moved through. Ouch.

And as my sister reminded me, we still have January and February. But please, enough with those severely windy days and seeing folks' trash blowing everywhere.

Posted by: bobosnow | December 28, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Today was less bad.
bobosnow - get a humidifier; mine has been a lifesaver this last month.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 28, 2010 4:27 PM | Report abuse

@jaybird926

I didn't come up with it but read it somewhere. It's possible walter-in-falls-church coined it (he used it in a comment Monday morning: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/forecast_windy_today_then_warm.html#comments) but I wasn't able to confirm. Walter - if you're reading- did you come up with this or get it somewhere else? I'll credit you if it's indeed your creation...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 28, 2010 4:27 PM | Report abuse

@bbirnbau

La Nina doesn't necessarily mean warm - just variable. The phase of the NAO is more important and predictions are for it to relax a bit in the next week or so before going negative again in a couple weeks. These predictions don't have great skill, however.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 28, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

I just got back from a bike ride... I am sooooo cold! Man is it chilly out there. Anyone thinking of bike riding today, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

But it is comforting to know that it's -11°F at the south pole and 77°F in Rio de Janeiro (with a dew point of 74°F - - ouch!!)

Sources: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/NZSP.html & http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=BRXX0201

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 28, 2010 4:43 PM | Report abuse

I just got back from a bike ride... I am sooooo cold! Man is it chilly out there. Anyone thinking of bike riding today, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

But it is comforting to know that it's -11°F at the south pole and 77°F in Rio de Janeiro (with a dew point of 74°F - - ouch!!)

Sources: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/NZSP.html & http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=BRXX0201

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 28, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Firedragon47, have one on my furnace, but it hasn't been kicking on much today. In any event, I get the sinus headache at both extremes: super dry winter days and when we get those major low-barometer storms in the summer. Like having an anvil sitting on my head. Also live in Centreville, as do you I believe - gorgeous day today.

Posted by: bobosnow | December 28, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

@bobosnow

You mentioned that the humidity is 28%. It should comfort you to know that the humidity in Sao Paulo is a comfortable 80%!

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 28, 2010 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Actually felt a bit of warmth in the sun today. Nice change. Looking forward to the rest of the week and weekend.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 28, 2010 5:00 PM | Report abuse

Anyone else excited to leave behind ear muffs and scarf as the week gets warmer?! :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 28, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

BobMiller2 - was in Santiago this time last year, left just before the 12/19 storm. Ah, now that was some fine, fine weather - never had a bad hair day! But the humidity two weeks later in Buenos Aires, was like DC in August - we were very amused. But that also meant mosquito bites in December - not amused.

Posted by: bobosnow | December 28, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

jason, jaybird,
as far as i know, i made it up. it's kind of ironic because i'm against the idea of naming storms w/o including a date. it should be "dec 19 2009 xxxxx". i just called it "nomageddon" in that post because i was in a bit of a mood after having had the snow rug pulled out from under me. and further, i'm really against the idea of naming storms that didn't happen.

i'm better now.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 28, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

@Camden-CapitalWeatherGang

I'm not because warm weather = no snow. No snow = unhappy snowlovers (like me!) Maybe my family and I should move to Buffalo - the lake effect snow capital of the world! :)

Posted by: BobMiller2 | December 28, 2010 6:21 PM | Report abuse

Jason,

I believe your forecast should at least include a chance of "wintry precipitaion" as the British term it on Thursday.

There may be enough moisture streaming out of the Gulf combining with a 500 mb ripple coming from the southwest to produce a minor event. The GFS has been showing us getting a little something.

As we all know, even a minor event can mess up the roads, especially if it sneaks in early in the day.

Posted by: frontieradjust | December 28, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

Walter/Jason,

The Washington Post's Metro Section this morning had a little piece on page 2, and it captioned it and the photo No-Mageddon.

Posted by: jaybird926 | December 28, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

The wind will let up soon. Thank God. This has been the kind of winter weather I hate- cold, dry, windy.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 28, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Talked 2 pal of mine who lives in Central Pa, about 15 miles E of Penn St, & they have had 0 accum. snow this monht, only a few flurries. They r in the same no snow zone as our area.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 28, 2010 8:15 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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