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Posted at 3:40 PM ET, 12/22/2010

PM Update: Winds set to whip up

By Ian Livingston

Who knew near-normal temperatures in the low-and-mid 40s could feel so good? After our long cold snap, it has been almost pleasant outside today. Winds have still been occasionally gusty from the northwest, but nothing terrible compared to what we've seen in the recent past. Our brief reprieve probably ends tomorrow as winds pick back up and we cool back down a bit.

Through Tonight: Sky conditions are mostly clear overnight and temperatures fall rapidly back through the 30s after sunset. Winds from the northwest picks up as the night wears on, probably sustained around 15 or 20 mph by morning. Lows fall to the mid-and-upper 20s.

Tomorrow (Thursday): We see a lot of sun on Thursday, but also a lot of wind. Sustained winds from the northwest should increase a bit through midday, with gusts near or past 40 mph possible. Highs reach the mid-30s to near 40 with wind chills likely in the 20s at best.

See Dan Stillman's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

La Nina snowstorms: La Nina typically proves difficult when it comes to getting a giant snowstorm in D.C. Over the course of 28 La Nina years going back to the early 1900s, half of which were weak La Nina's, there have been 20 storms that dropped 6"+ at D.C. In a moderate-to-strong La Nina, the odds of a blockbuster seem even less. Thus far, the record for a strong La Nina is 10.2" at D.C. in December 1973. See a chart for the whole group of 6"+ accumulations in the sample (note: dark gray = weak; light gray = mod; white = strong).

By Ian Livingston  | December 22, 2010; 3:40 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Boo to continued cold & wind.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | December 22, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse there a reason you are discussing records for La Nina year snow storms? I picked up on the words, "Thus far". :)

Posted by: JW211 | December 22, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

JW211, this was something I put together a few weeks ago and am still working on. Sort of just to get a feel of what's "normal" in Nina. It has seemed a little more useful while watching the models lately. You could probably use the stats to conclude we might be on the brink of adding another or as ammo saying it’s not terribly likely to break 1’ etc.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

does anyone at CWG pit much stock into the Canadian model at this point?.... Because it too has an extreme like the Euro except the Canadian takes the storm completely OTS.

What are any of your thoughts on the canadian model and do you think the middle ground in all of this may be the GFS?... Euro too extreme 1 way, canadian extreme the other way aNd the gfs is just right?...
Not sure how it held up with the last couple of storms but id like to know what you guys think of its complete OTS solution at this point and if its even plausible?

Posted by: KRUZ | December 22, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Are we always in El Nino/La Nina conditions or do we have years of "No Nino"? I first remember hearing about El Nino in the early 1980s and La Nina sometime in the early 1990s.

Posted by: kperl | December 22, 2010 5:08 PM | Report abuse

KRUZ, hey there. Yes OTC is still plausible (~40%). Check out the stats in Wes' post
You would like his commentary.

kperl, yes "La Nada" is how the stage is called when there are no oceanic temperature anomalies in the Pacific. What is interesting.. and the subject of scientific investigation.. is that the number of El Ninos and La Ninas has grown. There are an ever-shrinking number of periods when no temperature anomalies exist. Interesting, right?

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Was the "s" key broken on the keyboard of whoever typed this forecast? I added two and took one away for you.

Through Tonight: Sky conditions are mostly clear overnight and temperature(s) fall rapidly back through the 30s after sunset. Wind(s) from the northwest picks(

Posted by: rwalker66 | December 22, 2010 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Last part of my post was cut off. After the parenthesis it said "take the s off picks".

Posted by: rwalker66 | December 22, 2010 6:57 PM | Report abuse


Thx for pointing out. Fixed.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 22, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

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